Yuan Ben "7" this is really or flopping down?
zhengquanshibao· 2016-12-10 09:27:42
this year, the rapid devaluation of the RMB experienced three rounds, especially in the beginning of the rapid depreciation of the A share market even caused panic style crash, triggering fuse mechanism. Since November with the appreciation of the dollar, the RMB devaluation pressure is difficult to subside. In fact, this year the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar has fallen by about 4000 basis points, the magnitude of more than 6%, this year's record annual depreciation of the record basically no suspense.
is the foreign exchange market is waiting for the next week's FOMC "boots" settled, while the industry is expected before the Spring Festival, outbound tourism may cause increased demand for foreign exchange purchase seasonal rise, so after the new year and the RMB exchange rate downward pressure is still not small, so in 2017 the dollar index will challenge 105? Is breaking 7 yuan a big probability event? What impact will this have on the financial markets?
devaluation is expected to enhance
after the National Day this year, the U.S. dollar index continued to hit a high degree of 102, hit a new high of 14 years, the U.S. dollar index rose 3% in November alone. The world's major currencies have depreciated relative to the dollar, U.S. dollar exchange rate of RMB is below 6.9, the investment market triggered a exclaimed.
this year, the RMB has experienced three rapid depreciation of the first round from November 2, 2015 to January 7th this year, from $6.32 from the devaluation of the yuan central parity rate of 3.95% to 6.55; the second round from May 3rd to July 19th this year, the dollar against the yuan central parity from 6.46 to 6.70 year low depreciation rate of 3.73%. The recent round of this round from 6.70 in October 10th to 6.92 in November 25th, the devaluation of 44 in 3.26% days.
from 1 to September this year, the cumulative depreciation of the RMB exchange rate is 2.84%. Seen from the recent round of devaluation is more violent. In the case of increasing the expected depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, also experienced a panic episode: the early morning of December 6th, Google shows the dollar against the yuan price is 7.43 yuan for a time, shocked the entire foreign exchange market plunge supremacy. Although it is only a data error after the event, but the rapid devaluation of the RMB occurs, indeed enough to allow the market to accelerate the heartbeat, exacerbated by panic. But
, Founder Securities chief economist Ren Zeping to appear calm. Ren Zeping, said in a recent report, the continued depreciation of the RMB is not based on the fundamentals of the economy, but the accumulated over the years of 2014~2015 correction, the dollar is a good opportunity to provide a good opportunity. Under the condition of RMB strong again in early 2016 by the end of 2016 dollars and $callback, in dollars and a basket of currencies were chosen at the weak anchor, which confirms the RMB overvalued demands sustained release pressure. In addition to the dollar, the recent devaluation may quickly and monetary authorities before the advent of the key nodes ahead of the release of pressure and risk, including the December Fed rate hike in January next year, approaching new swap lines. Correction of the RMB to overestimate the risk of the release of the release of over - estimated to ease the pressure on the trade sector.
Guodu securities (Hongkong) also believes that the recent market on December the Fed rate hike is expected to gradually warming up, the dollar on global currency weakness in passive. Relatively speaking, the RMB against the yen and the euro instead of appreciation, it is seen that this round of devaluation is mainly due to a substantial appreciation of the dollar led to the passive devaluation. It believes that the devaluation of the RMB devaluation since August 11, 2015, the State Administration of foreign exchange is the initiative to open the exchange rate control. The official
data showed that in November the world's major non US currencies fell almost across the board, the yen, the euro, the Swiss franc against the dollar depreciated by 8.42%, 3.57%, 2.78%; Turkey, Mexico Bissau, Malaysia lira ringgit, Brazil Real, the South African rand dollar depreciated by 9.99%, 8.31%, 6.10%, 5.67%, 4.40%. So, in November the magnitude of the RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate, compared with other major non US currencies are still smaller, the RMB against a basket of currencies exchange rate continued to maintain a slight appreciation.
Trump will not let
RMB against the U.S. dollar devaluation?
although many experts agree that the RMB is still maintain a strong confidence, but the industry is expected before the Spring Festival, outbound tourism may result in increased demand for foreign exchange purchase seasonal rise, so after the new year and the RMB exchange rate downward pressure is still not small. Yuan this year, the annual devaluation of the record basically no suspense, then in 2017 the RMB exchange rate will be how to go? The dollar index will challenge 105? RMB 7 is really a big probability event? Interestingly, on this issue, "said Trump was moved out of" the highest frequency, mainly that the devaluation of the RMB will not be allowed.
Societe Generale Securities, said Trump has repeatedly stressed the protest against China, Japan, the so-called "manipulation of the exchange rate", hoping to be included in the list of China's currency manipulator. From the policy point of view, the strong dollar weak yuan or not Trump. In the global demand for the demand of the times, the RMB exchange rate of moderate depreciation while eating away investment income, but not a bad thing for the economy. But the problem is that for the source of this devaluation of the U.S. dollar, the dollar's strength may not be willing to see Trump. If Trump took office in January 20th next year to put pressure on the devaluation of the renminbi, may limit China's monetary policy easing, the impact on the financial market valuation. In its view, this is traceable, options and other financial markets are pointing to the exchange rate fluctuations in the market during this period may be amplified.
in the market situation, Hongkong senior financial and investment bankers believe that the central bank must have wentianna devaluation pressure test on the exchange rate, the current selection in the special point, namely the U.S. interest rate hike and Trump before taking office, the release of the RMB devaluation, depreciation seems to be the best time. "The issue of the RMB exchange rate in December the Fed rate hike will be clear, if the RMB is' false down ', U.S. interest rate hike, the RMB may rebound; if' fell ', as expected renminbi will continue to weaken." Wen Na na.
in Securities Times reporter's questioning, wentianna tend to think that this is really down, "the question is whether the dollar really rise, look really money back to the United States, but Trump has been accused of Chinese is a currency manipulator, Trump really will let the yuan fall indefinitely? I think the Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates in the middle of the month, and next month after Trump took office, the two node is an important point of view, does not exclude the period of RMB will appear weak relative to the state, but then there may be a technical rebound."
in the warm days seems satisfied, "7 yuan Ben" is not terrible, the concern is how the new RMB exchange rate mechanism in extreme market environment, to deal with the negative effect of the devaluation of the renminbi is expected to come true, "in the long term, the RMB to need to depend on China economic strength, and the influence of exchange rate on the economy. I believe that the central will be Chinese interests as a priority, to China favorable exchange rate policy."
Northeast Securities believes that the RMB in the year after the release of a large number of depreciation pressure, next year the whole RMB devaluation little space, the RMB is expected next year the bottom line around 7.2, but also the rest of the devaluation is expected due to more space, and non fundamental factors. The reason is that: it is difficult to maintain a strong dollar, the dollar index high of nearly 30 years of continued downward, the fundamental mechanism behind the decline in the United States, the proportion of the global economy; two is the capital outflow pressure decreases and the external storage is sufficient, weakening the RMB against other assets spillover effect, the surface to reduce the degree of differentiation.
Shenwan Hong is also expected in the fourth quarter of this year until 2017, China is facing the pressure of capital outflow has been systematically significant relief, the people's Bank of exchange rate intervention costs gradually decline, the RMB exchange rate will also show more passive fluctuations (rather than capital outflow drive) characteristics, and market participants in the mood this process will further senses. Improvement in the balance of payments structure is expected to become a major factor in the devaluation of the RMB devaluation pressure in 2017 compared with 2015~2016.
funds or flows to benefit from the devaluation of the industry
and the beginning of the year, the current A-share market on the RMB exchange rate fell no negative reaction A. Societe Generale Securities believes that on the one hand, the capital market for Renminbi devaluation was relatively limited; on the other hand, compared with the previous devaluation is a special phenomenon, after the devaluation of the renminbi is usually accompanied by a sharp rise in the RMB trading volume, but the rapid devaluation of November was accompanied by a rapid decline in trading volume, which may is close to the equilibrium level, may also be expected to stabilize the situation, a sign of the central bank to relax the intervention efforts.
according to the Northeast Securities statistics, since February this year, the devaluation of the RMB transmission to other capital markets panic no longer occur, stable performance of the asset. Recently the two conductive panic occurred during last year's 8-11 respectively in early January of this year and last year: 8-11 exchange rate reform in the first three days the central bank middle price down by a big margin, fast pace, and in early January of this year devaluation period end of the stock market is broken, the two events brought the emotional panic and market liquidity tensions in the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 the two time period fell by more than 21% and 5% respectively. But after the devaluation of the two rounds of the market, the impact of the market on the devaluation of the RMB devaluation of the other capital markets is significantly reduced, there is no recurrence of the situation.
, the current situation is not optimistic about the market liquidity environment and the lack of focus on the Pacific Securities believes that the need to find "varieties determine Ruoshi in. At present, the background of the devaluation of the renminbi is a relatively determined choice of industry opportunities. The various sectors of the growth performance of the whole market net growth performance, get a relative to the overall level of growth, excluding the impact of the market, the industry itself in the appreciation of the RMB, the depreciation of the corresponding performance cycle performance from observation. From the results, in the devaluation of the cycle, the benefit is more obvious in the industry for the chemical industry, defense industry, light manufacturing, commercial trade, leisure services, real estate.
securities (Hongkong) is a reminder that the impact of the devaluation of the financial situation of listed companies, including direct impact (operating income, exchange gains and losses, cash flow) and indirect impact of two parts. Among them, the exchange gains and losses will be included in the financial expenditure, the direct impact on the profit table. Therefore, overseas business accounted for a relatively large, export-oriented industries or listed companies, will be expected to be more in the devaluation of the RMB income.
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