How high will the oil price rise? To see the execution of OPEC
huaxiashibaowang· 2016-12-15 00:38:34
OPEC (OPEC) as a hedge, opened the last self-help, international oil prices also finally saw a glimmer of hope.
by December 13th, thanks to a OPEC and non OPEC oil producers on the weekend of January WTI production agreement, crude oil futures closed up $1.33, or 2.58%, closing at $52.83 / barrel, the highest since 2015 July closing price high, at the same time, February Brent crude oil futures closed up $1.36, or 2.50%, closing in 55.69 U.S. dollars / barrel, also hit since 2015 July the highest closing price.
this short time in international oil prices soared, and even affect the China capital market, the stock market crash of December 12th, when there was the oil price rise in inflation expectations for an important reason for rising inflation will likely bring the market interest rate is expected to rise, causing the surface tension of funds." that began in November, after a long time coordination hesitate repeatedly, OPEC reached an agreement to cut output finally, will cut 1 million 200 thousand barrels a day to 32 million 500 thousand barrels a day, from January began to cut 1 million 200 thousand barrels a day. The agreement lasted 6 months.
international oil prices jumped up and cut the agreement on U.S. oil rose 9.3%, after two trading days, rose 14%.
once reached an agreement, under the agreement on a lot easier, on the weekend at the national conference held in Austria OPEC and non OPEC, non OPEC oil producers will finalize the production of about 550 thousand barrels a day, the Russian bear half task, for the first time to reach OPEC and non OPEC countries cut agreement which is 15 years. Of great significance.
, however, can make so big action, at the same time that the OPEC and non OPEC countries the problem is also encountered in history, the glorious history of oil really could be gone for ever. Do not believe, we can listen to the Chinese corporate head of GREE Dong Mingzhu cries, "we must create new energy vehicles". Joint production of
OPEC and non OPEC countries, will lead to the national oil prices continue upward, but the key question is how much space in the uplink, the duration of how long? Reality may not be so good.
in the non OPEC countries have announced to participate in production on the same day, I discuss this issue to persons working in an American oil company for many years, his answer is very direct, not a hand and secretly announced production cuts, increase the strength of all production. Who is not willing to really suffer, who all want to account for some cheap. The power of OPEC comes from the absolute dependence of the world on its crude oil, and when the absolute dependence is no longer absolute, this power will end with it.
then one of the latest data show some clues, according to the International Energy Agency said Tuesday that OPEC's crude oil production in November reached record highs in crude oil, 34 million 200 thousand barrels a day, the amount is higher than the Nissan 300 thousand barrels in October.
, that is to say, in November 30th OPEC agreed from January 2017 to cut crude oil output of 1 million 200 thousand barrels, then Russia and other countries also agreed to cut crude oil output of 558 thousand barrels at the same time, each country was in full production, which is the main Saudi Arabia, the country's November crude oil production reached a record of 10 million 630 thousand barrels. The growth of 70 thousand barrels in October.
in short, how high the price of oil will rise, we have to see how strong the implementation of OPEC and non OPEC agreement. Of course, there is another factor can not be ignored, if global economic growth was better than expected, oil demand growth will be better than expected, the price can really get a boost, rather than relying on a must see all countries to support the execution of the agreement to cut output.
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