Inflection point? Beijing, Shenzhen and other cities prices fell
meirijingjixinwen· 2016-12-19 16:26:18
today (December 19th), the National Bureau of statistics released in 70 large and medium cities housing sales price statistics in November. The most aspect is the focus of the city changes in prices, in the second half of the 11, Beijing, Shenzhen and other hot chain price decline in the city.
interpretation of the National Bureau of Statistics Division Senior Statistician Liu Jianwei city is in the local, the role of regulatory policies of city facilities strategy, the 15 first tier and second tier city hot real estate market is rapidly cooling, prices stabilized significantly.
hot city prices rally flameout
first tier cities and hot second tier cities always play the role of weathervane in the property market.
to further reflect the recent changes in the real estate market, the National Bureau of statistics in November 70 large and medium-sized city housing statistics at the same time, it analyzes the 15 first tier and second tier city hot second half of the 11 changes in prices.
"source: National Bureau of statistics and the results of
showed that the first half of November, the 15 city, 9 city new commercial housing prices fell, fell between 0.1 and 0.9 percentage points; 2 City unchanged Ji'nan, Zhengzhou, Wuhan; Guangzhou, new commercial housing prices rose are down to less than 1%.
decline cities include: North deep three first tier cities, as well as Tianjin, Nanjing, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Fuzhou, Xiamen, the second tier cities of these 6. Ring flat cities are Hefei and Chengdu.
hot city prices quickly flameout, through a sharp contrast can be seen, and the reference data from 3 months ago.
according to the National Bureau of statistics, in August this year, north of Guangzhou Shenzhen four first-tier cities in August housing prices rose 3.8%, 5.2%, 2.4% and 2.1%, an increase of 25.8%, 37.8%, 21.2% and 37.3%.
and the month's champion is not them, Henan, Zhengzhou. August Zhengzhou new homes rose 5.6% QoQ, while in November the chain rose only about 0.5%.
"source: Oriental IC
Centaline research director Zhang Dawei told the daily economic news reporter (micro signal: nbdnews), the policy change is a key factor for the adjustment of the property market. In 2016, 9.30 policy began to cool down the strict regulation of the 22 cities, because policy tightening, the current round of property market regulation led to price increases inflection point has emerged, prices appeared after the rapid reversal of September.
in his view, this regulatory cycle lasted at least 6-9 months, and even may cycle elongated to 2018.
70 city house price growth rate fell nearly half
hot city house prices just change the overall property market in November microcosm.
Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute reported that: the simple arithmetic mean of 70 large and medium-sized city, residential sales price calculated that, in 2016 November, 70 large and medium-sized city of new commodity housing prices were increased by 0.6%, compared to 1.1% growth in October was down trend.
according to the National Bureau of statistics, compared with October, November 2016 70 large and medium-sized city, 11 new commercial housing price decline in the city, the rise of the city has 55, the city has 4 flat. Observed nearly four months of data, the number of cities in November prices continue to decline.
source: National Bureau of statistics in the report also said that the chain of price changes, the highest increase was 2.1%, the largest decline of 0.4%. In October the chain price changes, the highest increase of 4.9%, the largest decline of $0.8%. This reflects the highest increase in house prices in November narrowed, the biggest decline is narrowing.
three line of the city becomes the protagonist
in Quanzhou, Yangzhou as the representative of the three city home prices rose to the fore".
11 months, Quanzhou, Yangzhou, Shaoguan, Xi'an and cities in the largest increase in the price of the five cities. Rose in the top 10 cities also include Qinhuangdao, Xuzhou and Huizhou, such as the three tier cities. Researcher Yan Yuejin
of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Institute told the daily economic news reporter (micro signal: nbdnews), first-tier cities policy relatively tight, so the recent housing prices rising trend has also been effectively inhibit. Second tier cities, after some hot city prices trend has been suppressed, but some other cities still have more obvious phenomenon of rising prices, follow-up also need to actively regulate.
"source: Oriental IC
contrast, Yan Yuejin said, the three line of the city affected by the overall easing of policy, a second tier city policy, part of the city the overall pace of recent purchase prices rose rapidly, fast pace of a second tier city.
has just held the central economic work conference also clearly boost the three or four line of urban property market orientation.
meeting said, to adhere to the classification regulation, because the city due to the implementation of policies, focusing on solving three or four lines of urban real estate inventory problems. It is necessary to inventory and promote urbanization together, improve the interoperability of the three or four line of the city and large inter city infrastructure, improve the three or four line of the city education, health care and other public service levels, enhance the attractiveness of the agricultural population transfer.
future property market is expected to continue to cool
for 1-9 months this year, prices rose too fast phenomenon, around October around the country have introduced restrictions on loans and other policies.
Yan Yuejin said that such policies for the prevention of illegal funds into the property market, regulate housing prices project sales behavior, stabilize market expectations and other aspects of a positive role. From 10-11 month data, prices growth showed a significant decline. Expected in December with the release of policy control effect, such an increase will continue to narrow, and thus good prices steady operation.
"source: Oriental IC
according to 18 city Centaline monitoring opened the subscription rate data, nearly all around at low levels, around the average subscription rate was 66%, while the average subscription rate reached 74% level earlier this year.
Zhang Dawei said, in the push plate overall is relatively stable, the subscription rate shows that the market significantly slowed down.
is affected by the sale of part of the downstream changes, 11 real estate investment data has started to slow down. French bank point of view, this is mainly attributed to the buyers and developers of credit tightening, developers in November credit growth slowed for a second month, 11.2%, housing mortgage loan growth rate decreased from 52.5% in October to 32.2%. Significant deceleration in view of the real estate sales and investment, is expected in the 1 quarter 2017 economy will again be downward pressure, if current trends continue to decline in real estate data in December, this round of economic recovery will end in the end of the first quarter of 2017.
reporter noted that today's "people's Daily" published an article also discussed how to manage real estate, Real Estate Institute of Tsinghua University Liu Hongyu pointed out:
to manage "speculation", a "speculation can increase the burden of the credit policy" (raise lending rates), reduce the "speculation ability" (Shoufu ratio do not even provide housing mortgage loans).
two is through tax policy to real persons "to force", for example, 16072 more speculation more frequent transactions, transactions in the tax rate is higher.
international, but also generally levied on real estate transaction tax and higher capital gains tax, the main way to identify whether the housing is the main housing for families, as well as the length of housing holdings. Non major housing, holding period in 3 - 5 years, the general will face a heavier tax. Administrative color of the purchase or purchase of qualified management can be used as a temporary final means.
each edited by Zhao Yun
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