2017 property market is not optimistic: sales decline or over 10%
shidaizhoubao· 2017-01-03 06:03:16
" xianyihouyang fell to the bottom of the
2017 property is difficult to decline or optimistic: over 10%
weekly Times reporter Liu Juan from Beijing's
regulation in 2016, destined to stay in the property market in the history of the thick and heavy in colours Chinese page.
this year, the national commercial housing sales amount, sales area both boarded the historical peak. In mid December, a group of data released by the National Bureau of statistics show that in 2016 November, the country reached more than 10 trillion yuan of the amount of days of history, the commercial housing turnover amounted to 10 trillion and 200 billion yuan, is the first time since the new China establishment exceeded 10 trillion yuan mark; sales area of 1 billion 358 million square meters, 1 billion 300 million square meters in the year of 2013 to refresh the historical record.
grams and Swiss real estate research speculated that in 2016, the national commercial housing sales amount of 12 trillion yuan, sales area of about 1 billion 500 million square meters without suspense.
China housing prices in the billion year has come. According to statistics, in 2016 housing prices billion camp or expansion to 10, in addition to the old members over the past few years, Heng Da, Vanke, green, country garden, Wanda, poly, China Sea 7, SUNAC Greentown, Huarun will enter the list of hundreds of billions. Among them, Vanke, Evergrande, country garden, etc., has been successful among the 300 billion super housing prices.
land, the annual record of more than 318 is unprecedented. This took tide originated in the first-tier cities, then quickly spread to the two or three line of the city, including Hefei, Shanghai and Nanjing, the number of Hangzhou high priced land are in more than 20 cases. The average premium rate of more than 100% of the high price of land in the city is not a few, even the three or four tier cities also hit a high priced plots.
according to CRIC Research Center statistics, as of the end of November 2016, the price of land transactions totaled 777 billion 748 million yuan, more than 2015 annual amount of cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 21.4%, hit a new high since 2014.
real estate industry are more surprises, implied worries. The industry generally recognized, this wave of xianyihouyang the property market in 2017 will dip down.
after the boom and hot in 2016 before the three quarter, the fourth quarter of the national real estate market has been down in the regulation of the tide, the development of investment, sales, new construction and other key indicators of "cop-out", in after the U-turn straight down.
at present, the current round of price rally ended. "Yi (China) Group CEO Ding Zuyu to the weekly Times reporter analysis, regulation of hot spots of the city will be tight continuously in the future, and gradually spread to the money market, housing demand will be suppressed and delayed.
in fact, in the suppression of asset bubbles, financial risk has become a new tone in 2017 the real estate industry policy, real estate funds directed tightening is imminent, compared to 2016 so relaxed policy environment will no longer exist. The
, on the sale of the property market the largest contribution to the hot line and the two or three line of the city suffered from a lack of supply and policy "pincer attack", 2017 real estate sales decline undoubtedly. Grams and Swiss real estate research is expected in 2017 the total turnover of the national commercial housing will remain at the level of the year in 2015, about 1 billion 300 million square meters, the amount of sales throughout the year to maintain at around $9 trillion and 500 billion, slightly lower than in 2016.
at present, hot city banned high-end projects for the record and not approved pre-sale permit, indeed in 2017 commercial housing turnover has inhibition, but because of market structure and transaction structure without essential changes, the demand for the release is still concentrated in the higher prices of first and second tier cities in the core, the new year turnover will not decline. China Merchants Securities (16.330, 0.06, 0.37%) and CITIC construction gives the judgment is also, in 2017 the annual real estate sales will decline by about 10%.
"premium" as one of the core of the current round of regulation, is the focus of the next period of time control of the city, in addition to the land transfer for setting the threshold limit fuse, etc., for the land auction funds will also inhibit the strict examination of land transaction price rising.
in accordance with the major institutions predict that in 2017 the annual turnover of land in the same period in 2016, with a slight increase in the probability of a larger. The local government is under pressure will be "frozen" part of the popular plots to avoid the most expensive land overgrown, the overall turnover soared almost impossible.
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