Trump "bad mouthing" dollars? RMB opportunity for a continuous rebound
beijingshangbao· 2017-01-19 10:44:53
in the upcoming inauguration of the United States, President elect Trump on the dollar "excessively strong" position, the dollar index fell. After 17 days of RMB exchange rate from 6.9 consecutive break multiple mark to 6.83 after 18 days of RMB against U.S. dollar continued to move up sharply, at 6.8525, compared with the previous trading day appreciation of 467 basis points, has reached its highest level in two months. The median price rose 467 basis points to
1 on Sept. 19, the United States will hold new presidential inauguration, and in a ceremony on the eve of the incoming Trump, but in the interview, the dollar has shouted "excessive strong", the key part of the House Republican proposed corporate tax planning "is too complex, difficult to make American businesses with the China competition. After the interview was announced on the 17, the dollar index fell rapidly from 101.59 to nearly a month low in, against the group of 10 (G10, excluding China) other currencies fell.
homeopathic rose as well as the yuan. From the Wall Street informative data show that in 17, 9, in the onshore exchange rate was 6.9022, 13:30 rose to 6.8661, 22 to 6.8441 days, a continuous break 6.89 mark of six to 6.85. Offshore exchange rate from 17 to 9 at the time of 6.8670, up to 22 at the time of the year, rose more than 700 basis points, once exceeded by 6.8.
this momentum continues to 18. 18, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar reported 6.8525, the highest since last November 15th. Then the exchange rate shock upstream, as of 18 at the end of 18, the bank reported at the exchange rate of 6.8348, compared with the previous day and then rose by about 100 basis points; offshore exchange rate fell slightly, as of the end of 18, the times 6.8160.
is not the only reason the dollar
some people say that the dollar index "Yechuan Pu, also Trump. "This performance from the market has been confirmed. In the dollar index due to Trump's remarks diving before the dollar was once scenery.
statistics show that since the beginning of November 2016 Trump was elected president, the dollar against a basket of currencies appreciated 4%. Beginning in mid December 2016, the dollar index exceeded 103 after gradually stopped the pace of strong upside. Foreign exchange analysts will Han Shi pointed out that the dollar early sharp rally is built on a series of Trump's "New Deal" enthusiastic optimistic expectations, once the expected cooling, the dollar's rally will inevitably encounter twists and turns. But from the point of view of
yuan, many industry insiders pointed out that the dollar is not the only reason for the renminbi is pulled. Trump in the interview was published on the same day, the British Prime Minister Teresa made a public speech? Mei said that Britain would not seek the part of the EU membership will seek ambition and the EU reached a bold, rich trade agreement. As the market is not as strong as the market expectations, the pound retaliatory rebound sharply rose 2.7% in the day, but also boost the dollar index diving".
in addition to external factors, the stability of the exchange rate is also determined by the key to our own economy. Traffic bank chief economist Lian Ping believes that China's economic growth to maintain steady and rapid growth speed, foreign capital inflows will accelerate the speed, the opposite outflow slowed, the market balance.
China Academy of Social Sciences Academician, former member of the central bank's monetary policy Yu Yongding also pointed out that the RMB devaluation pressure is caused by a variety of factors, not all because of the appreciation of the dollar. China has a huge trade surplus, $3 trillion in reserves, and the world's highest economic growth and a strong government, should overcome the irrational fear of exchange rate fluctuations.
yuan is still a strong currency
in fact, the RMB exchange rate has gradually increased since the beginning of this year. From the middle price point of view, 18 of the offer of 6.8525, has been the first trading day of January 3rd than the price of the offer in, an increase of nearly 1000 points. Analysts said that in December 2016 economic and financial data in China have been released is roughly in line with expectations, the fundamentals of China's economic factors and market sentiment in the background, the short-term RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to run the strong side of the shock pattern.
a few days ago at the five meeting of the twelve session of the Beijing Municipal Committee of the CPPCC, told Beijing Daily reporter interview with the CPPCC National Committee, Dean of the vision of National Innovation Strategy Research Institute Ma Guangyuan also said that the RMB is still relatively strong currency. No need to fear the rise and fall of the renminbi, but also to be accustomed to such fluctuations. In the past 14 consecutive unilateral rise in the yuan, this situation is not normal. The relative strength of
is also reflected in a basket of currencies. Chinese currency network commentator had published an article said that in December 2016, the dollar index hit a new high of 14 years, in order to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate against a basket of currencies, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar devaluation. But compared with other major currencies, the RMB devaluation rate is relatively small, thus making the renminbi relative to a basket of currencies has risen, the effective exchange rate of RMB continued steadily, the overall stability is still showing strong features.
talked about this year's goal of RMB management, Ma Guangyuan believes that in the future to achieve a managed floating RMB exchange rate". He also stressed that the management does not mean casual intervention. To change the yuan, the central bank should keep calm, not anyone, because the yuan fell a little, for future intervention, free floating RMB exchange rate is a big trend, let the market price of rmb.