The surface of the water: the Spring Festival market why a feather?


huaxiashibao· 2017-02-07 04:36:13

with the chicken, the arrival of the Spring Festival, a year Chinese hot property market has no WenJiQiWu, but is a feather, more open there is the volume and price of the situation. In the case of Guangzhou, January 23rd -1 month 29 days Guangzhou houses net signed only 505 sets of transactions, down 74% compared to the previous week, the average price fell 19%. Can not help but eat melon crowd forecast: this year the property market may be stalled."


this is not the Hefei property market plummeted since January Weakness lends wings to rumours., many of the city's housing prices have begun to loosen, the most attention is Hefei.

2016 Hefei real estate prices because of a fire. According to the 2017 Hurun global house price index shows that Hefei housing prices because of the annual increase of more than 40%, in 2016 the global price increase first. Attention is not only China's first, but also the world's first ah! Until October the introduction of the purchase of the policy, the price has been a certain control.

but out of the mix sooner or later to return, rose over the natural need to adjust. Since entering the chicken, the property market in Hefei came to the view that prices fell sharply, especially during the Spring Festival this argument is reached the peak. Rumors from some of the property buyers in the Hefei municipal government website complaints, the owners complained that the Hefei district housing prices plummeted 16%, the decline is the most. Of course, although prices are down in Hefei, 16% of the decline is an individual phenomenon, the overall decline is not so great. But the reason for its decline, in addition to soaring prices, but also with the central bank to tighten monetary policy. The tightening of monetary policy the central bank to raise interest rates before and after

Spring Festival, the central mother in the funds rate hike dismantling, 24 days of MLF (medium-term lending facilities) to raise interest rates, then the SLF (standing lending facilities) interest rate. One of the two indicators is responsible for medium-term monetary regulation, a short-term monetary control, which means that the overall tightening of the currency.

of course, this increase in interest rates for ordinary people is not a deposit interest rate hike, but the impact on financial institutions is greater, because it is disguised asymmetric interest rate hike. The cost of borrowing has risen, but the savings have not risen. This increase in interest rates is an increase in the cost of housing, so sooner or later affect prices. There are friends joked that the two indicators of a hot pink, one is Hot and Sour Rice Noodles, two with prices, can give developers spicy.

developers to raise external debt to

, then the future of the real estate developers how to deal with the situation of monetary tightening? In fact,

, from the 10 real estate intensive control policies, housing prices began to suddenly increase on domestic financing difficulty. Therefore, a lot of housing prices will once again turn overseas, intensive issuance of U.S. dollar bonds to foreign debt to make up for the gap in domestic financing.

rough statistics, more than a month before the Spring Festival, only more than and 10 companies listed in Hongkong on overseas market financing $3 billion 500 million. In November last year, only $500 million financing. Visible, monetary policy tightened again, a lot of housing prices have to return to the old debt issuance. But the Fed rate hike is expected to remain, devaluation pressures. Future housing prices in the face of regulatory uncertainty, but also to deal with exchange rate risk.

therefore, many of the housing prices are currently facing such an embarrassing situation: the king has been photographed, but more difficult to borrow money. This is really let housing prices hurt their brains.

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