China's property market is unlikely to collapse in the foreseeable future
zhongguoqiyejia· 2017-02-08 07:04:34
chicken Spring Festival, social media "good luck in everything", "Congratulation" sound can be heard without end and online, "crash" rampant prophecy. Use Baidu Search "2017+ crash, 1 million 240 thousand search results ran to the front: the collapse of the property market, the stock market collapse, collapse in the bond market, the exchange rate plunged … …
" crash "that has been popular for many years, the collapse of quasi eat sooner or later collapse, then can show their" hindsight ", but the audience suffer. 1989 Beijing real estate commercial housing prices broke through 2000 yuan, there is a "bubble house prices," said those waiting for the "collapse" and then start the public, to whom?
but "crash prediction" is still a great market, a day before WeChat is known as "the 2017 property market will collapse, first-tier cities prices fell 50%, down 90% other" reading number nearly 70 thousand.
predicts a baby sooner or later die, one hundred years will definitely come true, but miss TA's whole life, good where?
is the first working day after the Spring Festival, the central bank in a net return of 70 billion at the same time, raised lending rates and inverse repurchase stock (SLF). Linked to the festival increased the interim loan interest rate (MLF), the central bank to tighten monetary policy intentions clear, "the rate hike cycle" in sight. But for decades, China has experienced a number of interest rate cycle, the guiding ideology has never changed: under the premise of controllable inflation, by injecting liquidity to maintain the growth rate.
to discuss the trend of real estate articles every day there are hundreds of articles, their arguments are the basic, cited Japan, Hongkong property market turmoil are historical facts, conclusions often make Chibidaigou heart hope.
land finance, liquidity, developers, consumers from greedy … … the high prices of the factors associated with the notorious, but there is one thing that has rarely been mentioned: commercial housing is a big kill to return the money of the government.
"China economic research," more reliable "
analysis" in the field of natural science, without systematic study and regular practice of scientific research is to speak of "subversion" called "China branch". They have no "standing on the shoulders of giants", is a major breakthrough, the overthrow of the famous conjecture or the establishment of huge theory system theory. In most cases, "China branch" and the title has a strong derogatory meaning.
but in the economic field cannot and should not reject the "China branch".
first, economics itself is not a rigorous science. The work of
scientists can be roughly divided into two categories: the use of theory to explain the phenomenon, the use of experimental verification theory. Newton, Einstein, Hawking's strengths are put forward the theory of Luther, Faraday, Cavendish, Fu is good at theory.
economists have trouble in the first class work. Standing at a point, than in 1990, to explain a country from 1950 to 1985, the theory of economic phenomena may have several sets. Ten years later, the country from 1950 to 1995 to explain the economic phenomenon, but found that some of these theories to major surgery, some is not abandoned and another.
second kinds of work is difficult to be convincingly completed. The adoption of what economic theory is not what scientific problems. The value judgments of "efficiency first, fairness" don't appear in the minds of physicists; Keynes or Freedman is highly relevant to faith.
a natural science experiment, whether Zhang three or Li do four, the results of the given precision must be the same. But in practice, economic theory, factors affect the final result and these factors cannot be exhaustive and determined. For example, Trump take what policy, what are the key factors of the final results, which can verify the theory of economics. Summary of Trump policy gains and losses for four years or eight years, is the issue of "science" or "political question"? Out of their own theory was verified scholars also difficult to avoid where to play where the suspect. Proposed and verified the theory of
are not so reliable, whether it belongs to the category of economics science has been controversial, bluntly said that everyone is "crackpot". # on economics is a scientific, may wish to know almost at #
second, without any political leaders at all times and in all countries strictly in accordance with the theory of economics of governance.
to China, for example, Mao, Liu, Zhou, Chen, Deng who holds a degree in Europe and the United States? After the reform and opening up, China did not copy the western theory of economics, at most one or two reference.
in the "governance, Chinese minke" has become the world's second largest economy, 2016 GDP is equivalent to Japan and Germany and Britain combined.
is not to say that there is no value in economics, but should not give up independent thinking, should not be superstitious ivory tower spread from the tall theory. Besides economic circle is obviously some experts Public opinions are divergent., "ass thinking", listen to?
China on economic issues, we must first understand the "public management ideas", or even a Nobel Prize winner is "layman".
"the axis of China's economic problems"
the former Soviet Union and China fundamentally reject the bourgeois economics". Do not even recognize the general meaning of the currency in the economy, will be regarded as "notes".
according to Marx's argument: "in the public production of society, monetary capital no longer exists. The society assigns labor and production materials to different students
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