In the end do not buy a house? 10 years later the difference is so

Buy a house difference house price commodity house

21shijijingjibaodao· 2017-02-09 05:43:33

property market has been one of the essential topics. Do not buy a house? This controversy is always accompanied by thousands of families.

" perview_img_p small series today and we account, buy a house or not to buy a house, 10 years later, how much difference between the wealth of the?

first person:

buy a house in a two or three line of the city, the total price of housing for the housing area of 500 thousand: down payment of 200 thousand provident fund loans for the year of 300 thousand and 20, for the month of $1963. 10 years after the choice of a one-time repayment of loans to pay off 200 thousand, the house to their own.

so ten months for a total of 1963*12*10 ≈ 236 thousand.


rental rent this house is: according to the general rate of return home residential 3%, 500 thousand house rent for 1250 yuan.

as a result of the National Bureau of statistics released in 1975 ~2011 CPI summary of 6.15 times, an average of CPI5.7. Rounding, the rent increases by 6% every year for 10 years, the rent:

first years rent: 15000 yuan

second years rent: 15900 yuan

third years rent: 16854 yuan

… …

tenth years rent: 25342 yuan


A, a total of 10 years of rent:

15000+15900+16854+… … +25342=197709≈ 200 thousand;

B, 200 thousand, Shoufu, the annual rate of return of 5% (bank deposit rates usually run to win the CPI) is

20*1.05^10 ≈ 326 thousand;

C, the province next month for 1963 yuan deposit bank annual return rate of 5%, which is about 310 thousand; ligunli, one-time

D, under the loan money for 200 thousand.

now has three assumptions

hypothesis 1

the next 10 years the house value consistent speed and CPI, 6% per annum (ideal), 10 years after the housing market value of 50*1.06^10 ≈ 895 thousand.

so people buy a house of wealth of 895 thousand.

people to rent wealth for 326 thousand Shoufu +31 million monthly deposit deposit +20 million one-time repayment of money -20 million =63 million rent hypothesis of


for the next 10 years housing appreciation of 4 times the rent, the market value of 2 million.

people who buy a house is 3 times more than renters.

assumes that the next 10 years the house rose 3

(63/50) *100%=26%, an average annual increase of 2.5%, or down.

renters win.

single calculation from the wealth, as long as the house with CPI value, buy a house is worth it.

some people may be expected after 10 years as prices today, or rose less than 26%, but because the Chinese house tradition, in order to get married, to a sense of security, a sense of stability, will still buy a house, do not care about the price rise.

finally, buy a house, everyone has their own answers.

if the collapse of the property market to buy these houses the most loss of

one, high prices during the high tower.

early commercial housing now seems to be fine, because they are in terms of density, height, coverage and green rate is similar to today's high-end commercial housing indicators or even more than. High prices are similar to the construction of the tower during the construction of waste, is to dilute the cost of the floor and improve profits, not based on the efficiency of land use and improve the degree of intensive.

and the prices show up period, the investment house function is exaggerated and its quality connotation and other related factors have not been appreciated by investors to consider, which determines in housing prices Pudie period the house facing difficult shot livable, shot entirely subject to price factors such as negative aspects leading to this kind of house is easy to appear devaluation or relative devaluation.

two, the king side of the finished product.

is one of the reasons, the most expensive land for the stock to the housing stock in the new house price for re evaluation, to get a higher price; the two reasons, the most expensive land next to the house because of the emergence of the most expensive land, re positioning, drive the luxury similar upgrade, but actually did not improve, but the price up; reason three, the most expensive land after the emergence of regional quality improvement, increase Chengpinfang decoration standards, the decoration cost most susceptible to devaluation; the four reasons, the most expensive land with the city planning for the future is related to development, the developers sell heavy area is the center of the city or transportation, and the prospect of money scene interaction it will have to get it the most expensive land, and the adjacent property will be the most expensive land produces many background into price gene, which will in future to the overdraft prices reasons; Five, the king is often linked with the size of the hook, the surrounding real estate is likely to be included in the scope of the king may be considered and valuation.

three, the apartment next to the track. Wang side

and the four, in the process of city rail transit is the main inducement lead to price increases but not the main reason, developers will be the future overdraft and passed on to consumers the results. Why is the apartment next to the track easily damaged and other high-grade commercial housing and low-density residential areas are not easy to devalue it? Mainly because the track factors have led to rising prices did not affect the most expensive land so large and obvious, on the contrary, the track next to the apartment often with certain prospective development, and focus on some form of apartment big developers, architectural details and product quality