Why do I have to look forward to Trump's economic policy

Trump economic policy foreign exchange reserve

meirijingjixinwen· 2017-02-09 05:43:40

from the Beijing Normal University professor Zhong Wei Trump was elected and took office, the foreign affairs caused a lot of controversy, the global governance and the world economy has brought more uncertainty, as a successful businessman in the background, and the expression of the campaign and in his inaugural speech pragmatism and even isolationist policies, I make to economic policy, especially the U.S. - China Economic Association is still waiting. President Trump may understand that if the Sino US economic and trade conflicts, the United States and the United States is not much; if the deepening of economic and trade cooperation in investment, many Chinese cards. Cooperation is a win-win or lose? I tend to think that the United States and China will eventually choose the path of mutual benefit.

realism and isolationism

first, Trump and the team has shown a strong practical and utilitarian, which makes the friction after the compromise possible.

usually Democrats pay attention to ideas and values, while Republicans are more inclined to reality and conservatism. The establishment of the diplomatic value has its impassable perimeter, and the reality of utilitarianism, even more isolated with conflict and compromise based on redistribution of interests. Trump's vision of America's priorities seems to be trying to change existing rules and make it more beneficial to the United States, and less concerned about the interests of others. But if those degenerated into a dog in the manger, Trump will continue the price?

at the same time, China does not have any aggressive expansion in global governance, but worried about the fragmentation of global governance, emphasizing the fate of the human community. Therefore, a utilitarian and a conservative America, did not intend to modify both the basic framework of international regulation China, compared with similar form of the new cold war against the Soviet Union pattern, both sides seem to be more likely to break disputes, more likely to gradually examine and repair the leading international order in the United States in the process of Sino US with a pragmatic attitude to defined benefit segmentation and role play.

second, the global security concept of Trump seems to have not yet been finalized, but its strong color, which makes the security competition between China and the United States will continue to compromise, but also will emerge.

Trump, seems to be in some Asian regional issues there is no better than China claims, countries in the region through dialogue and consultation mechanisms to reduce the differences, to reach a consensus on the solution. Southeast Asia is still the primary issue. So perhaps it is possible to strengthen energy cooperation in the United States and Canada, has gradually become an important global energy output, the United States will realize, including Japan and South Korea, India and ASEAN countries and regions including Southeast Asia, probably the world's biggest and most stable growth of energy demand. If the United States and China can strengthen cooperation in the field of energy, then the stability of the relevant region is likely to become the United States and Southeast Asia common policy options.

is too difficult to "separation" of the former "legacy"

third, Trump is difficult to copy the Reagan doctrine, I am afraid it is difficult to deviate too much from the legacy of the estate of the emperor of China, and it is difficult to copy the "".

many people compare Trump to Reagan, and think they may be similar. But both in different economic background, Reagan took office, the U.S. fiscal deficit GDP accounted for less than 30%, the dollar interest rate at an all-time high; while the US fiscal deficit year $19 trillion $in the initial interest rate hike, which restricts the policy space of Trump. Many people think that Trump will be significantly different from Obama, but re manufacturing, infrastructure, export policy to revive, Obama in his first term has been raised, but the effect is not evident.

from this perspective, Trump's economic policy although less affected by the output values and the establishment, but Trump will still be subject to the fundamentals of the U.S. economy, is likely to focus more on the actual economic benefits the way, guide the U.S. economy continues to run in the road to recovery, but made too drastic changes to. When Trump from a merchant to the president, the role of the conversion decision sooner or later he would agree, served as president of the United States and Washington elite the doings, although due to age, ideas and different perspectives and made Trump unhappy, either Reagan or Obama on the nature of the main policy must follow the national interests of the United States preferred way this decision, Trump ruling way to significantly different from other American presidents, but personal traits will allow Trump to highlight America's interests, practices are different.

fourth, Trump himself and his team repeatedly criticized the RMB exchange rate problem. We need to consider at least two kinds of practical constraints, we can see whether the RMB exchange rate can constitute a Trump card.

first, the Chinese government has never been a single impact on the exchange rate. Since 2005, the RMB exchange rate continued to rise, the appreciation of the extent of even more than some of the United States continued to criticize China's exchange rate policy of the conservative members of the expected range. After China's economy has entered a new normal, the RMB exchange rate basically reflects the changes in the fundamentals of the economy. At present, the Chinese government to maintain the stability of foreign exchange reserves and the exchange rate is generally stable, while continuing to remain cautious in capital regulation. It is easy to hear the criticism of a country's exchange rate depreciation of sound manipulation, but to "criticize" Chinese government to avoid exchange rate depreciation efforts, and regards it as a "currency manipulator", whether in theory or in practice are unheard of, this "criticism" is in vain

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