It is the real driving force behind the surge in commodity prices
fenghuangcaijing· 2016-05-01 19:25:21
news pictures < China commodity market, we all know. Also, many of the spearhead the retail, but people have put forward: behind the attacks another person. < / P > < p >. / > recently, China ushered in the commodities boom, commodity prices and trading volume rose sharply, black repeatedly triggered trading board, screw thread steel single day trading volume (April 21) even more than the annual output. After continued high, this week, the price of black metal appeared moderate callback, but still high fever.
market out of the question, we can see, who is the problem? We all look to the Chinese retail. In the opinion of most people, retail investors are not rational, like swarmed, many from the fundamentals of the market bubble can not be separated from the retail adding fuel to the flames. However, axiom asset management analyst Gordon l Johnson has pointed out, the commodities boom promoters and not retail, they are to financial products "bear the blame".
Johnson said that the real impetus to the rise of this round of commodities is the special interest of the Bank of China tool, they are the real black swan". < p > real "behind the scenes"
2009, with $11 trillion in savings of China's banking sector in deposit growth is stagnant dilemma. In order to avoid liquidity tensions, the central bank to maintain 75% of the deposit requirements and healthy and reasonable balance sheet, the Bank of China began to launch a variety of financial products at an unprecedented speed. < p > first, the lack of regulatory < at present, China's regulation of financial products is still not perfect, coupled with financial products not included in the bank's balance sheet, which give financial products provides potential bad debts space, market is not conducive to timely discover and eliminate non-performing financial products. < second, high risk < in order to attract investors, financial products will generally ensure high-yield, high interest rates), in order to do this, investors' savings is used in the highest risk loan program, for example, some of the excess capacity of Chinese enterprises issued by the high risk bonds. In addition, some financial products did not respond to the potential risk of the risk of preparing margin, the more play the risk factor.
third, high leverage
financial products controlled by the bank, but not on the bank's balance sheet, by selling financial products, banks can get money from the hands of individual investors. In general, the special interest tool investment leverage will reach 5:1, in some cases even to 10:1, so as to provide investors with 5%-15% returns.
such a lever will not have any problems at the beginning, a long time will be exposed. Bank financial products began to invest in high-risk bonds, after turning to the real estate market, and then after the stock market, without exception, the final collapse of financial products, the rate of return will fall.
now, these highly leveraged financial products eyeing the commodity futures market. What evidence does
1 month 16, Shanghai rebar futures contract average transaction amount is 180 million U.S. dollars / day, 3 months later, the trading volume soared 285 times to 514 billion U.S. dollars / day! Iron ore, coking coal, polypropylene futures contract rose by 114 times, 1056 times and 150 times! This size is too large, so Johnson believe that this must be behind the promotion of bank financial products.
Shanghai commodity exchange, all kinds of commodity futures trading volume chart (2016.01.16-04.16) < commodity markets will suddenly collapse?
taking into account the commodity market, this round of rising funds from the bank's highly leveraged financial products, and financial products, the size of the fund is huge, most also concentrated in the overnight market. Sooner or later, people will wake up, such a large scale of capital will bring a heavy blow to the commodity market.
Johnson said: the commodity market will experience the collapse of A shares suffered last year, which is inevitable. "(Oscar)