14 polls, 14 kinds of results, Cai Yingwen himself also messy
cankaoxiaoxiwang· 2017-05-22 18:55:44
[/ observer network columnist
Cai Yingwen Lin Nan] ruling Taiwan 1st anniversary, many institutions (including political parties, media or think tank etc.) of the Cai Yingwen administration this year polls every kind of. In the face of various polls support rate at low levels, Cai Yingwen obviously disturbed the ground, even bluntly: poll fluctuation is expected to do, "I didn't work for the Taiwan poll, I do. "
Cai Yingwen, this remark is clearly not in the eyes of public opinion, I am afraid it will be scolded, after all, in Taiwan such a so-called importance to public opinion in the community, poll is an important means of snooping public opinion. Then what polls are reliable, that is, accurate reflection of public opinion? What criteria can be used to identify the reliability of polls? In addition, these polls, in addition to surface results, and how to read the deep meaning?
, so many polls, who in the end should listen to
, which poll is the most reliable?
"opinion poll" refers to the random sampling method to select the sample that can represent the parent, ask the sample's attitude to some problems, and then estimate the probability of the same attitude of the mother. The sample that can represent the parent population generally includes gender, age, geographical distribution, etc., which are in line with the ratio of the maternal population. Generally speaking, if you want to understand the public's positive and negative attitude towards something, usually take out about 1000 valid samples, and the sampling error is controlled within plus or minus 3%.
and in Taiwan, agencies are using specific methods of investigation, mainly telephone (artificial) investigation, telephone (voice) survey, network investigation, etc.. Among them, the highest credibility is the use of telephone (manual) survey.
"Apple Daily" is the center of love (voice) telephone survey, sometimes come up with some results and a big gap between the reality and the deepest impression is the "Apple Daily" published in June 1, 2015, leaders of the 2016 Taiwan area support the polls, Hong Xiuzhu Cai Yingwen's 28% to 50% win. The results were encouraging for many people, but the gap between the situation and the real situation is too large, and it illustrates the unreliability of the telephone (voice) survey. Because of this, "Apple Daily" poll results are not in the main reference to the author.
network survey, mainly refers to the large flow of portal design questionnaire to ask the views of users, but the survey which cannot ensure that the object involved in the investigation is a representative sample, so the results can not be used as the overall public opinion for reference. The day before Cai Yingwen hit only 18.4% of the poll, low satisfaction is the network survey, but the poll taken is special and reliability is not high, because the questionnaire mail mailbox to leave before, do not say first representative samples, usually in such a way that is not the main survey. The satisfaction of the personnel will actively and conscientiously to mail, and this is the direct cause of this result. In other words, the poll results are not really worth it.
, even with a more reliable telephone (manual) poll, the agency effect is also a factor in the impression outcome. Specifically, people in Taiwan have different color attributes, and when pollsters are not in the same wavelength as their own, they may be reluctant to answer, so there is a slight error in the results. When want, such as the United Daily News poll on the blue camp / the slightly favorable landscape of the DPP poll / slightly favorable, and some relatively neutral TVBS.
satisfaction? Support? In the end,
's survey of politicians or public policies has two main indicators: satisfaction and support. Satisfaction mainly refers to the public's evaluation of the past performance of political figures, the promotion of public policy or public policy, and the emphasis on the past". The support is mainly about the future performance of political figures and the confidence of the public policy to be promoted, with a focus on the future".
in general, the number of support will be higher than the number of satisfaction. Why? Because there are always some people (about 6%-10% or so) who are not satisfied with the incumbent, but still support his / her future governance, that is, his / her future confidence. That is to say, if the support of the crash, so is undoubtedly the hardest, because it shows that their basic disk are not confident of their own policy, the future policy (especially major reforms) are more burdensome.
or more, is the author of the recent major public opinion polls in Taiwan, Cai Yingwen's ruling 1st Anniversary results summary. First look at the satisfaction part, in addition to using Yahoo's network investigation, regardless of position, the poll results showed Cai Yingwen's satisfaction is more than 50% (between 51.00%-58.7%); but in the satisfaction, Pro Green polls (except the "beautiful island newsletter" outside) is about 40%; while the pro the blue and the middle of the poll results at 35%, can show the effect mechanism.
from the results we can see that satisfied now (or endure) Cai Yingwen's people is probably the DPP, and the middle part of the pan blue and voters expressed