From Huang Qifan property market sentiment, long-term mechanism construction

Real estate economy house price property market

shanghaizhengquanbao· 2017-06-02 14:25:30

data picture.

Huang Qifan reflects the Fudan speech signal, which has a lot of system is the pre conditions of the construction of long-term mechanism of real estate, such as the reform of local government functions and performance evaluation, the reform of the taxation system and the construction of public finance, the reform of the tax system and financial supervision system. Therefore, in the final analysis, the long-term mechanism construction and system reform is a game of chess.

- Li Yujia

deputy director of the NPC Financial and Economic Committee, former Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan recently at the Fudan University on the topic of "thinking" on the basis of the establishment of the system of real estate and the long-term mechanism of speech, attracted wide attention of public opinion and the public. The amount of hits, forwards, and comments on the Internet has reached tens of millions. By government officials speaking so much attention, is very rare, this is partly because Chongqing achieved a remarkable balance between the rapid growth of GDP and stable price of real estate; on the other hand, is the hope of long-term mechanism of market society to "break" as soon as possible, in order to avoid because of high prices, high cost and blocking domestic construction and economic transformation.

in a new round of market regulation, since February, there have been more than 60 city issued 150 policies, whether regulation of frequency or intensity, can be described as the history of the most serious, people called the "five limit" (the purchase of credit limit, limit, restricted, limited, especially business) is "restricted" and "limited first-tier cities", will demand almost freezing.

before this round of regulation, property prices across the country experienced a surge. Since 2015, the hot city house prices rose 80% to 150%, the hot property market spread to three or four line city, inventory pressure and wearing a "ghost town" designation, the city also failed to escape poverty county. Soaring house prices, "plus leverage" and "asset shortage" is expected to be the two driving force. However, China's total leverage (total debt total /GDP) has risen from 177.8% in 2010 to 237.6% in 2016, the residents of the leverage ratio from 44% in 2015 to 50.6% in 2016 2016 rapidly, loans for new loans ratio up to 46%. In the context of economic transformation, the rapid rise in leverage, means that funds to accelerate the "off reality into the virtual", financial risks gradually approaching. Therefore, the long-term mechanism and adjust the more urgent need to break the ice break up cycle.

Huang Qifan believes that the long-term mechanism is the premise of objective positioning of real estate. Because the volume is too large, the correlation is too high, real estate in the world are pillar industries. Even after the peak of urbanization in the United States, the real estate contribution to GDP is also more than 9%, "Post Crisis Era" economic recovery can not be separated from real estate, pillar industries, leading industries worthy of the name. At the same time, real estate is a livelihood industry, wealth symbol, and financial and economic risks follow the shadow, the government must attach great importance to the stability of real estate and its economic balance. Therefore, to avoid two tendencies: one is to go to the real estate economic dependence "alienation of emotional and moral of" real estate "; the two is the real estate financial impact, alienation for the kidnapping of economic and financial," too big to fail, and then forced control of appeasement, risk accumulation.

to avoid these two tendencies to quantitative indicators of experience, not only respect the status of real estate, but also to maintain the balance of the indicators, such as real estate development investment can not exceed the total investment in fixed assets 25%, not more than 1/6 GDP; fixed asset investment can not exceed 60% GDP; housing price can not exceed the old people (43.430, -1.00, -2.25%) 6 to 7 years of family income; land supply "crawling peg, striking and the actual city absorb population, per capita construction area of 100 square meters for; for the construction area, according to the 55%, 20%, 20%, 5% respectively the ratio of supply base or public facilities, industrial, residential and commercial office; developers to use its own funds and financing than strict control in 1:3; public rental housing must cover the city's resident population of 20%; land price can not exceed the price 1/3 and so on.

Huang Qifan experience "quantitative balance", regardless of whether science, but it is the local government to avoid the real estate and economic imbalances and avoid financial risks accumulated in simple and practical measures, but also the bottom line of thinking in the long ruling in the process of landing". The surface, although some quantitative indicators to implement, as in "renewal pattern compensation standards around the house", the premium can not exceed 1/3 of the price, but Huang Qifan pointed out that completely can be compensated by developers to the periphery and even suburban joint abundance of land, in exchange for the follow this steps. In this way, prices have come down, the business environment is good, the real economy and real estate on balance.

therefore, although the real estate problem exists "path lock", such as "auction" transfer mechanism, developers complain about the high prices of land, residents complain about the high prices, officials complain that the investment environment destroyed, all the people are not satisfied with the existing conditions, but it is a helpless choice. However, we can rely on political wisdom and reform spirit, explore the policy path under the conditions constraints, the most typical is the "land ticket" system. In fact, with the "3 one hundred million" to promote rural per capita 200 to 300 square meters of construction the construction land will withdraw completely through the reclamation of arable land, city construction land index maneuvers. Large cities can purchase these indicators, the city will replace the land for construction land, and thus stabilize land prices and promote people-oriented, urbanization double goal. < /

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