"Comprehensive two children" a year and a half welcome birth peak: 2017 new two children or over 9 million

Peak Shandong economy newborn

huaxiashibaowang· 2017-06-23 22:41:33

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" China Times (public No.: ChinaTimes) reporter Xiao Hui Wang Beijing reported

distance to carry out a comprehensive two child policy for half a year, China has ushered in a new round of growth peak.

"in 2016, China implemented a" full two child 'policy, which is further adjusted following the' separate two child 'policy improvement, however, during pregnancy to 9 months and have pregnancy, so baby boom will come this year. At present, the number of newborns in 2017 than in 2016 more than tens or even millions of people, but after 2018, the number of newborns will decline. "In June 22nd, demographers, China and invited global think tank senior researcher Huang Wenzheng accepted the" China Times (public No.: ChinaTimes) "reporter said, if not to take timely policies to encourage fertility, in 2018 the number of newborns each year will reduce some one hundred thousand people.

according to the National Bureau of statistics data, in 2016, China's new birth population reached 17 million 860 thousand people, of which two children accounted for about 45%, about 8 million to 8 million 300 thousand people.

a new round of growth peak of

2015 in October, China decided to end the long-term implementation of the "one child" policy, the two separate child policy came into being, but the result is not as good as expected, the most direct reason is that the policy is a small window. Subsequently, in January 2016 the "comprehensive two children" policy introduced, the direct birth of two children, the scope of the couple expanded by 9 times.

according to Wei Planning Commission said, "comprehensive two children" policy implementation, new fertility two children target population of about about 90000000, accounting for about 140 million currently has one child of married women of childbearing age 63%. At the same time, it is predicted that the birth population will increase to some extent in the next few years, and the highest year is expected to exceed 20 million. So, what's the effect? Birth data

official statistics show: at the end of 2016, the total population of 1 billion 382 million 710 thousand people, an increase of 8 million 90 thousand over the previous year, the annual birth population of 17 million 860 thousand people, including two children accounted for more than 45%, the birth rate was 12.95 per thousand; and 9 million 770 thousand deaths, the mortality rate was 7.09 per thousand; the natural growth rate of 5.86 per thousand.

in this regard, the State Planning Commission deputy director Wang Peian said, 2016 born population is equivalent to the size of the population was born around 2000, coincides with the "comprehensive two child policy of anticipation, plus the policy fertility potential cumulative release is expected to still need time," 13th Five-Year "during the total fertility rate will fluctuate in 1.8.

so, in 2016, the birth rate is the highest in nearly 16 years, "comprehensive two children" policy implementation effective, and even some provinces exceeded expectations.

's got a "around two children apply for monthly average ranking table", this table is the statistics of the two separate child policy of liberalization of the application data, the top three are Shandong, Guangdong and Sichuan, three for Hainan, Ningxia, Qinghai, Shandong; the "single two children received a total of two child birth again apply for 223 thousand copies, accounting for about 1/4 of the total. After

"two children" started to implement the policy, Shandong's fertility will be instantly lit again: in 2016, the number of births in Shandong reached 1 million 770 thousand people, equivalent to the national 1/10, an increase of 530 thousand people, an increase of 42.7%, of which two children born accounted for 63.3%, an increase of 69.9%. According to the statistical yearbook of Shandong Province, the birth rate in 2016 has reached its highest level since 1991. For this reason, Shandong is also called "the two most daring provinces".

, Shandong, Guangdong and Sichuan are big population provinces, and the number of applications is not surprising, while the population in Qinghai, Ningxia and other places is much smaller, and the proportion of the only child is also low. "In June 22nd, a long-term study of population and family planning issues, He Yafu accept the" China times independent family advocate (public No.: ChinaTimes) "reporter said, in 2016 two children and above accounted for the proportion of the population was over 45%, increased by more than ten percentage points higher than in 2015, which indicates that the" comprehensive two children "policy effect previews, to improve China population structure has certain effect. But for

, the regional distribution of application data, Huang Wenzheng believes that the long-term and cumulative fertility desire concentrated release, "for the two children of top-ranking provinces clearly showed a strong fertility desire, one of the main reasons is that the number of provinces had fertility policy more severe, strongly repressed the fertility desire the policy, once released, will be fully released".

birth will temporarily difficult to last too long

despite the "comprehensive two child policy helps to promote the growth of population in our country, although the 2016 China fertility rate significantly over the last year to improve, but still did not reach the standard of the world.

according to the results of the investigation of the will of the Wei Planning Commission, because of the economic burden, too much energy and unattended care, not willing to have second children, accounting for 74.5%, 61.1% and 60.5% respectively. In addition, a Tencent mainly for 80, 90 baby boomers "two child intention questionnaire showed similar results: occupation development pressure, raising the cost, take care of the female, and the pursuit of quality of life and other factors, the more obvious the fertility desire and constraints.

especially in recent years, the housing prices in large and medium-sized cities have risen and the cost of education has risen year by year, which has more and more influence on family fertility decisions.

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