Which cities should we avoid in buying a house?"
beijingshangbao· 2017-07-04 19:27:54
] (author Zuo Junyi) with the regulation of the continued tightening of the real estate market gradually "cattle turn bears" wait-and-see, hunters, cash, behind every transaction, there are two parties on the city real estate market to determine the support.
real estate market transactions and stock market transactions are similar, such as prices are required to match the volume, only the volume of the obvious rise in prices is sustainable.
therefore, according to the relationship between the City turnover and housing prices, we can roughly judge whether the urban real estate trend is healthy.
so, what cities need to avoid possible risks now?
real estate, the three stage of the bear market
, if the property market into the downward cycle of prosperity, sales and housing prices may be how to change? In general, if the real estate market boom down, the market will experience three stages: quantity or price, quantity, level of price decline flat.
in the real estate boom decline in the process, in the first stage, forward-looking real estate enterprises take the lead in reducing prices, inventory realized, so that you can hold a lot of cash to deal with the industry behind the cold. This stage of the real estate market performance for the price or amount.
in the second stage, sentiment began to spread, "late" even if the real estate business to adjust the price, stimulation of sales is very limited, because the buyers do not buy or buy up, they will continue to wait and see whether the follow-up have a lower price, the sales will continue to shrink until it reaches only just the ground level, but even so, the real estate enterprises will not lower prices, the market performance of flat volume decline stage.
in the third stage, the industry will appear in winter, with sales reaching ground level, no time before go, the tight funding chain of real estate enterprises face two choices: one is substantially completed the sale price is two will be sold to other low-priced real estate developers. Therefore, prices will continue downward at this stage, the performance of this stage for the amount of parity down.
finally is the emergence of a new round of the real estate market boom cycle, the factors may be speculative speculation, the central bank lowered mortgage interest rates, government relaxation of real estate control measures.
for example, the last round of real estate adjustment cycle in Beijing -- the second half of 2010, Beijing is roughly the amount or price stage, this stage by developers to cut prices going fast; the first half of 2011, gross volume decline is flat, even if the developers cut prices will not boost sales, so the price roughly flat, at the same time sales gradually atrophy; the second half of 2011 and the first half of 2012, roughly the amount of parity fell, sales fell to only just need to enter the volume level at the same time, developers in order to return the cash will be substantial price cuts to boost sales (see Figure 1).
" at the present stage city in which the amount of price reduction?
then, the current round of real estate regulation period, the property market in the cities?.
if the city's turnover and prices on a plot, then combination relationship between sales and prices, the city has three types: the first second categories of the amount of price reduction; the amount of price rise; third kinds of volume and price.
" for example, according to the main city in May sales and prices, so the city is mainly distributed in the three quadrants (see Figure 2): the first class of the city the amount of price reduction, city distribution in the third quadrant of the lower left corner in the second class city; the amount of price rise, this kind of city distribution in the upper left corner of the second quadrant; third city volume and price, this kind of city distribution in the upper right corner of the first quadrant. Of course, there is a city in May is the volume or price, that is Shanghai, in the fourth quadrant of the lower right corner, but this kind of situation is rare, not as the focus of analysis. The city of
at this stage of the housing stock investment strategy
people know, the important influence on the subsequent volume price movements, if the volume shrinking, want to buy the stock of the positions of the lack of popularity, is difficult to price rising momentum. Buying a house is the same. At this stage, which cities need to wait and see, which cities are more dangerous, you can make an analysis from the volume point of view.
1, avoid the amount of price reduction of the city: Beijing, Suzhou, Xiamen city is the first
to avoid the amount of price reduction of the city, the city has a relatively strong sentiment, is a typical representative of Beijing, Suzhou and Xiamen (see Table 1).
", such cities, followed by the trend of prices may go first, flat, and then down. The reason is in the first flat price can not stimulate sales environment, no real estate companies will cut prices; then the sales continued to decline to ground level, then the real estate enterprises in order to get cash for life insurance, will once again slashed prices. Therefore, at this stage, these cities do not have to rush to start housing.
2, on the amount of price rise: Guangzhou, Dongguan, Ji'nan city
in addition to the amount of price reduction city to avoid the outside, there is a kind of city is the amount of price rise, this kind of city housing prices