Ali, Jingdong are up, why vip.com's share price has been down?

Vip.com Jingdong Ali USD

rong360· 2017-07-13 16:33:19

6" on Sept. 30, Deutsche Bank will be vip.com's rating from "buy" down to "hold" at the same time, the target price from $15.5 to $12.6. On the same day, vip.com's share price plummeted 8.5%, and shares fell further by 4.74% in the ensuing week.

this year, Alibaba and Jingdong share prices have risen even higher. Alibaba consecutive N quarter earnings, Jingdong consecutive N quarter loss, the 1 quarter of this year to achieve real profit. Why continuous money making and continuous loss of share prices are rising, except for 18 consecutive quarters of profit vip.com is not optimistic?

7 11, vip.com and Jingdong jointly issued against acts of unfair competition, against Tmall to use its dominant market position, in a variety of ways to require businesses to sign the so-called "exclusive" cooperation, and exit from the Jingdong and vip.com platform, otherwise it will be subject to cut down the right search resources, shielding and punishment.

, already facing pressure for growth, will face growing competition from vip.com. Ali to protect their traditional monopoly clothing category advantages, and Jingdong hope to break through clothing, enhance their profitability. And vip.com, which is mainly made of clothing and bags, will face unprecedented competition challenges. Where will the share price go from here?

interpretation of the stock in the first phase, for your depth interpretation of vip.com's plight and challenges.

investment bank from promising to wait and see,

in the past year, Alibaba shares rose 79.46%, Jingdong shares also rose 90.61%, while vip.com's share price has fallen by 18.70%.

/ DonG according to the company's share price

Deutsche Bank see extensive promotional finishing industry in June, as it will cause the competition pressure on vip.com, and concerns about its future growth (The analyst has competitive pressure and growth concerns "with June seeing industry-wide discounting).

Deutsche Bank concerns may be when a large number of electricity providers to carry out similar to the 618, double 11 such promotions, consumers will be more willing to go to the corresponding promotion season platform shopping, which will affect vip.com's sale electricity supplier.

, we have sorted out the GMV (or order quantity) of the major electricity suppliers during the past few years, and accounted for their annual GMV, and observed its trend to verify the rationality of this view.

first look at Ali double 11 data. Double 11 as the most influential domestic electricity supplier promotional holiday, the data is also the most complete. As can be seen, the double contribution accounted for GMV, from 0.78% in 2011 to 3.2% last year.

/ DonG according to company earnings data and open

again to see Suning and Jingdong.

/ DonG according to company earnings and open data

/ DonG according to company earnings and open data

the two companies did not disclose the specific data, but because the sales season turnover / order growth rate is higher than the annual growth rate of GMV, so you can come to the same conclusion: Sales of GMV increasingly high proportion.

we think, on the face of it, Deutsche Bank's concerns are correct. Sale refers to the specific time, to sell a specified commodity at preferential prices. When the entire industry in a particular period of time each year to sell at preferential prices, the sale of electricity supplier advantages seem to be affected.

but Deutsche Bank may have overlooked the point, that is vip.com's main business category is women's clothing and cosmetics, this is not a Jingdong and Suning. The only thing that could hit vip.com was Tmall's double 11. In addition, vip.com is not outside the promotional Festival, they also have their own promotional Festival - 419 global sale carnival. If promotion can take away other people's customers, then when all the players in the industry have their own promotions, the influence on each other will be offset to some extent. The real problem is not

industry promotion

actually vip.com shares had once reached $30 in April 2015 highs since listing shares rose more than 30 times, and then began to decline in the long process. By July 7th of this year, its closing price was $10.05, only 1/3 of its peak value.

- vip.com official data

this year, Alibaba and Jingdong shares hit new high. Alibaba consecutive N quarter earnings; Jingdong consecutive N quarter loss, the 1 quarter of this year to achieve profitability. Why continuous money making and continuous loss of share prices are rising, except for the 18 consecutive quarter of profit only

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