Pure cash? How to define Pan Shiyi's SOHO?
shangjie· 2017-08-23 14:31:43
| Liu Xiaodong
can not lose? Value investors don't seem to be saying that. But this is not the South pyramid flicker of magic, I am serious this time.
so, how come there's such a good thing in the world?
in fact, as long as you have sufficient margin of safety and patience, you can also get a chance to be hit by gold. here, I for you to analyze the value of shares of SOHO China (410.HK).
SOHO China was founded in 1995 and was co founded by SOHO China Chairman Pan Shiyi and CEO Zhang Xin. The company is developing and holding high-grade commercial real estate in Beijing and Shanghai city center, and the development projects have become landmark buildings in urban construction. "
" at present, SOHO China has become Beijing, Shanghai's largest office building developers, the total development of 5 million square meters. "
- SOHO's official website,
SOHO China, belongs to the simple business that Buffett says, and it takes five minutes for you to get a thorough understanding of it.
from the above cited view, he is held in Beijing Shanghai core area of high-grade commercial real estate "charter.""." at first glance, the net rate of 0.599 times the price of Hongkong and many underestimate to the outrageous mainland real estate stocks on the same stage, nor how xianshanloushui. but it is the neglect and bias of this market that gives value investors the opportunity to arbitrage.
in my opinion, SOHO China is a bond with a call option, and its value is obvious.
1, SOHO, China can maintain its value of
. If we think of the investment object as a black box, what kind of investment is the safest?
obviously, the answer is regular interest payments, maturity of the principal to the cash. Follow the results to elaborate, the closer the investment products to the cash properties, the more secure our investment.
SOHO China's assets now in a critical state of cash, plus the stock price is 0.599 times the city's safety cushion, in line with the investment I described above varieties. of course, he has not yet fully realized, otherwise, the net assets of the marked price will not hit forty percent off. The conversion of
SOHO assets to cash, mainly depends on the following three conditions: (1) the
value of SOHO China undervalued for cash
Hongkong market held in Beijing, Shanghai, Hongkong and other international first-tier cities of high-end property companies a lot, such as: "
Zhu Hopson group (754.HK), the net rate of 0.29 times
; Luo Kangrui's Ruian real estate (272.HK), the net rate of 0.3 times;
Engineering Group (635.HK), the net rate of 0.36 times;
(color star group industry wither, main asset is Hongkong Tsim Sha Tsui Road No. 100 Guangdong commercial property leased to Apple's flagship store). All of the above companies, without exception, are given a lower market price,
they do nothing, the performance boost suck, no sale of assets, not to mention plans for everyone "penny". The sluggish performance naturally scared off investors, but SOHO China is another extreme, actively selling property, dividends, and launching new business.
2014, SOHO China at the price of 5 billion 230 million yuan, the sale of Shanghai SOHO Helen square and Jingan square, 3 billion 50 million yuan to sell half volley SOHO to Ctrip;
2015 in September, SOHO will have a legal dispute with the Bund Fosun Fosun shares transferred to the most expensive land, the price is 8 billion 493 million yuan;
2016 in July, the SOHO of Shanghai Century Square the whole project sold to Guohua life insurance, the total turnover of 3 billion 297 million yuan;
2017 in June, SOHO Chinese sold 3 billion 573 million yuan to Hongkou SOHO.
sold 5.5 Shanghai project in four years, with a total amount of 23 billion 600 million yuan.
in addition, SOHO has just announced that it will be ready to sell Beijing Guanghua Road SOHO and volley SOHO two projects, according to the market price can be estimated to sell more than 10 billion 500 million yuan.
it is worth noting that this is the first time that SOHO plans to sell commercial real estate in Beijing, Pan Shiyi in the SOHO 3Q Development Strategy Conference held in Beijing in July 2017, declared that "in addition to the Bund Beijing SOHO and Wangjing SOHO, all the other items can be sold. "
, a year ago in August, Li Jiacheng's eldest son once said," there is nothing that can't be sold except the center of the Yangtze river".
two release of rhetoric, as if all this way, had to pay homage to their harvest on the land rich, catch in the tide rising, hope to get away to retreat.
and Pan Shiyi's rhythm of selling, selling, and selling protected SOHO valuations and did not fall to the floor with other low turnover housing stocks.
conservative estimates, SOHO can sell, but commercial real estate projects have not yet sold, the total value of about 30 billion left, and its current market capitalization is only 23 billion.
(2) SOHO China can keep cash results
the real estate industry quite a bit of Ponzi scheme, regardless of profit developers how high, as long as it continues to take, profits will be rising with the prices swallowed.
's books look good. If the company doesn't pay dividends, shareholders don't get a penny. They're working for the government. , and once the downstream price is seriously bubbling