China's economy "gray rhinoceros" how to prevent?

Inflation the financial crisis the exchange rate the stock

guanchazhewangcaijing· 2017-08-28 10:14:43

[the black swan] is well known for its term of unpredictable major events. But the dangers do not all stem from the occasional "black swan", more of which have long been ignored. This is the "gray rhino", which are bulky, slow response, everyone can see it in the distance, but does not care, but once it is you to run here, explosive attack will let you be caught off guard.

2017 in July, "people's Daily" on its front page, a commentator for the first mention of the word: "anti" black swan event "," anti gray rhino, let down on all kinds of risk signs can not, can not turn a blind eye. "

, then, what is the gray rhinoceros of our time?" The author believes that China's current "gray rhinoceros" is the aftermath of Keynes doctrine.

our grey rhino

currently has at least two types of "gray rhinos" in the economy, one of which is generated by debt and the other by hot money. For example, the local debt crisis, debt crisis, zombie companies, sheet business boom, the residents of the leverage ratio to rise rapidly, such as the property market bubble, financial fraud, sheet business flooding, capital flight, rising prices.

the internal logic of this is that money will continue to converge to a small number of people in society. After a small number of people accumulate enough funds, they will not be used for consumption, nor do they have to invest in the real estate industry, but for money and money.

when the market economy enters the monopoly era, monopoly formation takes place because of the depletion of technical reserves or the slow innovation of science and technology, resulting in the economy running at a low level for a long time. In order to keep the economy running at a high level, the government adopts Keynes policy to stimulate the economy. One side is that the government (central or local government) keeps injecting money, while the currency is rapidly converging with a small number of people. At both ends of the

economy, there is a growing amount of debt, and one of the hot money that is hitting everywhere is growing. Demand at both ends is diametrically opposed, and the debtor is afraid of contracting money (interest increases, can not borrow new old), to creditors to stop speculative hot money, you must shrink the currency. The seriousness of the problem, exponentially increasing with time, with the passage of time continuous rolling debt growth, the corresponding is, the total amount of hot money is running around with the passage of time continuous rolling growth.

reality, on the one hand is debt accumulation. One-way currency flows, resulting in local governments, zombie enterprises, developers can not successfully repay the debt. In order to avoid bankruptcy, they must constantly borrow new or old, or find the opportunity to pick up the chivalrous man. This will inevitably lead to a rolling increase in the total debt of the whole society, and the deeper and deeper the debtors will be unable to extricate themselves in the mire of debt.

, on the other hand, is the accumulation of claims. Have a lot of profit (debt) of a few people know that the government continue to inject money, will inevitably lead to inflation, so they will not profit in the hands of the cellar, but will put these profits into the economic cycle, speculation. The profits that have been put into the economic cycle are hot money. If hot money moves into commodities, it will push up inflation. If hot money moves into equities and real estate, it will push up asset bubbles. If you enter the debt market, it will extend the debt chain, brewing risk of debt.

as long as the market economy, hot money will be free to buy, hoard, speculation of various commodities. includes both the stock of Luther's dream of getting rich and the housing needed by most of the members of the society, as well as the energy and raw materials needed by the modern industrialized society. Hot money owners are extremely free and have more capital, more insider information, and more opportunities to participate in the formulation of national economic policies than most other members of society. Other members of the society deal with them in the same market, they can only be slaughtered. When the hot money owners judge the economic situation is about to deteriorate rapidly, they can also transfer assets overseas and withdraw smoothly.

unless all the necessities of life according to the production of rationing to ensure full supply, and restrictions on foreign trade, or hot money profits (or manufacturing financial risks) opportunity no ticket money can't buy anything without money, can not change the foreign exchange quota.

but that kind of economy is obviously not a market economy, but a highly planned economy. Such an economy has frozen a large amount of money, and once it enters the market economy, it is inevitable that there will be fierce (and even vicious) inflation. Historically, in 1930s, Germany had realized the stability of prices and exchange rates with increasing money supply. However, that was achieved in the context of compulsory savings, consumer goods rationing, planned production and planned import. Even then, Germany was under growing pressure from hyperinflation and Mark's devaluation.

this is like a patient a visceral ischemia may lead to necrosis at any time; a stroke, the same may be death. Blood transfusions are also needed to avoid internal ischemia. Debt to blood transfusion, to avoid the debt crisis, a slight tightening of monetary policy, it may lead to money shortage, the debtor can not continue to borrow new old, the latter is the financial crisis.

the birth of money shortage,

to avoid the financial crisis, you can through the central bank to release water, allowing the whole society

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