Can I buy a house? Will the property tax be introduced?

Inflection point house prices bull market bear market

licaizhongguo· 2017-09-06 21:09:39

source: the Wall Street informative sorting from the Founder Securities chief economist Ren Zeping -9 in late August at the beginning of the month in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen founder chief research framework on the speech training.

China's economic growth shifted

2014 years, I am optimistic about "5000 is not a dream", quit the director of the sea. In 2015, I predicted that "double the first line of housing prices", plus leveraged housing. This year we are optimistic about the new cycle, that is, pushing the cycle, pushing finance.

I have participated in three times in the industry debate, "2010, 2014" the shift of growth "to bear the final battle", 2017 "new period" in the debate, is the beginning of a minority, the last to be widely accepted and become the majority.

" you look at this chart, the abscissa is GDP per capita, the ordinate is the economic growth rate, the sample is Germany, Japan and South Korea, Taiwan and the mainland in about China, 11000 yuan before and after the international economy, the catching up has switched economic growth platform.

2010, we proposed "growth shift", but at that time the popular view that the future of China's economy can return to high growth, the next 20 years can also grow by 8%. Many people think that we are to deliver negative energy, but also a variety of exaggeration, do not speak the truth. I think now looking back, very sorry, if we had earlier realized that China to speed up the shift, it will not stimulate the real estate round to steady growth.

do you remember the house prices in Beijing ten years ago? What was the price of the house in Beijing in 2007 and 2008? Add six thousand or seven thousand yuan, Huilongguan Beiyuan homes eight thousand to ten thousand, Asian Sports Village ten thousand to twelve thousand, experimental two small, historians primary school district house twenty thousand, this is ten years ago Beijing house prices. But at the time of the 30% down payment, thirty percent off interest rates, some banks are 20% Shoufu, ten years ago in Beijing can spend 2289 down payment to buy a one hundred square meter house. In 2009, Beijing began to purchase, before 2009 is not limited to purchase, you have ten million in Beijing to buy ten sets, plus leveraged buy thirty sets, fifty sets, this is ten years ago to now, small targets are achieved.

in the past ten years, ten times the price increases, many people still speak for cash, he did not know this tragic history. 10 years, 10 times, why? We round and round of stimulating real estate, would like to return to the high growth track. So what is the premise of economic policy making? The premise is the grasp of economic reality.

today, everyone on the "shift of growth" has been a consensus, here is to emphasize that since the second world war more than 100 of the world economy to catch up, the shift of the growth rate of success is 12, the probability of success is only about 10%. If China can increase the shift success, will create a miracle, because China is the world's largest population, a country of 1 billion 380 million people, if you can speed up the success of the shift, it is very amazing.

why is the big apartment selling well recently? What is the driving force behind the

growth shift? The core is the two, the long cycle of real estate investment peak and Lewis inflection point. Japan, South Korea, China, Taiwan and Germany, respectively, in the growth of shifting time, there has been a long inflection point of real estate investment, real estate is one of the largest domestic demand. There is the end of the demographic dividend, population bonus brings more external demand, high growth of exports.

" you can look at this picture, is Chinese population growth rate curve, about after the founding of the population in 60s and 70s there is an explosive growth, but at the end of 70s, because the family planning population growth rate showed a downward Cliff this is our past, the entire population growth trajectory. Population is very important. It is the most basic factor of production.

when did the baby boom in China begin? China's mainstream population was born between 1962 and 1976, a group of Chinese mainstream population, who decided the main features of China's economic growth and economic structure. In simple terms, Chinese past economic high growth is a group of young people when it dry out, the demographic dividend disappeared, Chinese population aging is this group of people gradually age longer, Chinese past real estate gold for more than 10 years, this is a group of people to buy a house. Recently why the big Huxing sell well, that is, this batch of people change houses.

the aging population China to accelerate the arrival of

you look at the picture below, the blue line is the distribution of population age in 90s, 1962 to 1976 this group of people born in 90s at the age of twenty or thirty, when the play, to help Chinese economy stem growth. By 2015 and 2016, the age of the population had shifted, and the mainstream Chinese population born between 62 and 76 was now forty or fifty years old. To be exact, the mainstream Chinese population is now 40-55 years old. In five years, China's mainstream population will gradually begin to withdraw from the labor market, which is why China's aging population must accelerate.

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