China makes huge economic losses every year because of the 7% people

Economic economic growth South Korea Taiwan

MissMoneyfushi· 2017-09-09 03:18:58

wisdom Valley language:

, this is a group of very special Chinese, their number is as high as 100 million. They were born in the countryside, but for various reasons, they missed the opportunity to change their most convenient train forever. That bus is called urbanization. Urbanization no longer wait, missed, and they are far away from high-income people will be farther and farther away.

Chinese Miss City population proportion of the total population is increasing year by year, and this part of the population because of age has higher reason has lost the possibility of city urbanization, it also gives Chinese high income to increase the level of difficulty.


what is "missing the urbanized population"?

Lewis's two element structural model, whose implicit hypothesis is that the population and the labor force are free flowing. Some economists simply compare the cities of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, China, with the view that the urbanization level in mainland China is still low, to 75% and 80%, and still has great potential.

but a person from birth to old age, from entry to work to retirement, from the adaptation of urban environment to middle-aged and elderly, do not adapt to urban work and living environment, has its life cycle.

therefore, for an individual's life, there is a window period in which the city is limited. In this window period can not enter the city to become a citizen, it will become "missed urbanization population."". These phenomena under the Chinese system need to be carefully observed so as to carry out a special analysis of the transformation of China's two yuan structure.

, such as in 2013, some economists put forward the view that urbanization will promote the rapid growth of China's economy in the future. Because the level of urbanization in China was only 52.6% in 2012, and the level of urbanization in developed countries was 75%, or even more than 80%. The lag of urbanization between China and developed countries is actually a latecomer advantage. China's future urban level will increase by 1% a year, becoming a strong driving force for national economic growth. This is also his argument that China's national economy will continue to grow at a rate of 8%, 15 to 20 years, one of the important arguments. Although

is the mobility and migration of a population and the labor force, but China, with Japan, South Korea, Taiwan Chinese population migration and the city has a quite different: one is the

exit into the city and countryside system is completely different;

two is a window into the period the mobility and migration of population and labor the obstacles and accessibility are fundamentally different;

three is the former did not miss the city of basic population, which has a large population of Miss City, deposited in the countryside, in the later period of life can not be able to again city population, and Chinese conditions, because of family planning, and green the old time, the rural population aging in an increasingly large proportion.

from another perspective, the floating population urbanization is facing many obstacles, many of the rural population in the city of youth to enter the city to become members of the public, but ultimately failed to carry into the city and my family. This part of the population because of Miss City, including urban and rural household registration division and migration into the city to become the public failed to control population, because the city does not provide public services such as education and become a citizen of the population failed to enter the city, because there is no land property income and city housing price is too high and not enough economic ability of the public failed to enter the city population.


how many Chinese have missed the urbanized population? In a specific year,

should distinguish two concepts, that is, the difference between the rural population and the actual rural population and the missing urbanized population in the rural areas.

should have the difference between the urban population and the actual urban population, in fact, it consists of two parts, that is to say, to miss the urbanization population and the urbanization potential population. Urbanization potential population refers to the elderly in the rural age (we will set this standard for 50 years), and may enter the city to become a citizen of the population. The following calculation of the Miss City population:



- Miss City population, city proper rate of population should be according to the city (South Korea, Taiwan and other countries and regions China $8000, which is equivalent to the city now about $10000 on the level of the level of calculation. After the same TP - total population; CP - actual urban population;

- 50 years old or above; proportion of the total population. After calculation, the current number and cumulative number of 1980 to 2015 of Miss City population as shown below:

1980-2015 city population (the number of missed million) source: National Bureau of statistics. There should be rural elderly and urban population missing, according to the People's Republic of China population statistical bulletin and the National Bureau of Statistics survey of population sampling survey data.

can see, although in recent years due to the relaxation of population flow control its growth has slowed the trend, but with the increase of population, the number of missed city population is also increasing year by year, the 2015 Miss City population has reached 98 million 420 thousand, which is about one hundred million of the population, 7.16% of the total population.

but urbanization is no longer the same as before. In the early stage of industrialization, the high fertility rate and the high population growth rate formed

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