Skyrocketing housing prices gone, but China economy towards a new platform
tiantianshuoqian· 2017-09-24 18:55:27
source: macroeconomic review (ID:hgjjpl), author: Zhong Wei, Chen Xiao,
, the global economy is indeed faltering bid farewell to the crisis, rather than trembling face a new round of crisis. China's economy is bottoming out, and the new concept of development will introduce China's economy into a new platform.
China's economy has entered a new platform that determines our view of the already growing transition and the desired economic outlook that can be more optimistic than skeptical and pessimistic.
so cognitive, asset strategy configuration level, equity priority, quasi cash is also necessary, the first tier cities property prices have room to rise. Although the 2017 record sales area and the amount of historical records, but has been in the industry reshuffle, has been in the regional market differentiation, industry concentration is slowly increased, real estate prices can rest on. In maintaining the stability of housing prices bottom line of thinking, the real estate investment opportunities will be structural.
SOE mix change, consumption upgrade and innovation growth is mainly investment context can be expected, the proposed increase financial asset allocation ratio, such as stocks, bonds or funds, there is a foreign exchange, gold etc..
the global economy is faltering in its bid farewell to the crisis. Does
have a new economic cycle? It's a hot topic of controversy these days. We can clearly observe some significant changes since 2015. The global economy is indeed limping away from the crisis rather than shivering in the face of a new crisis. China's economy is bottoming out, and the new concept of development will introduce China's economy into a new platform.
is a global growth stabilized, but the growth is still weak, innovation is still insufficient. By the end of 2014, the Fed announced its withdrawal of quantitative easing as a symbol, then the global economy gradually stabilized. In particular, the economy has been very poor, the more obvious the improvement. That was last year in Russia and Brazil, this year in the euro area and japan. Due to the overall lack of innovation energy, to improve growth more shows the characteristics of mean reversion, Chinese is no exception, since the 2010 3 quarter growth continued downward, if not bottomed out, showed obvious signs of overall is stable." is the world's two bid farewell to deflation, but inflation is not a significant threat. The consumer and commodity gradually stabilize, weak recovery and resource products loose balance, so that people do not worry about inflation. China also bid farewell to the deflation that was more severe than the East Asian crisis, and now inflation is moderate.
three" are anti crisis stimulus measures, although the fire stop, stop and go. As growth and inflation were less than expected, the Fed's interest rate hike and contraction of the ECB's exit were viewed with a gesture of walking. Taking into account the Chinese growth fell more than 10% from within the platform, the price from 3% to 1% - 2% of the platform, so China money supply slowdown is not accidental, but inevitable. Not only does China no longer stress strong stimulus, but it also takes strict regulation of Finance and real estate.
four is an increasingly important economic situation, coordination is very important, the road is blocked and long. How to maintain the sound relationship and coordinated development between the real economy and the fictitious economy, especially the asset price? It's a headache for all major economies. China is particularly emphasizing the concept of new development, innovation, coordination, green, open, sharing, and gradually become popular. So the new cycle or Juglar cycle worth mentioning, including China, the world economy, the crisis in ten years later, no doubt to the new platform and new atmosphere.
SOE mix change, consumption upgrade and innovation investment growth is mainly the context of the
can expect the situation of macro economy based on, we can discuss how to adjust the asset allocation strategy. Pessimists and optimists don't usually go the same way. Pessimists choose hedge assets, while optimists choose proactive equity assets. Differences in the economic cycle are also concentrated in the choice of hedging and risky assets.
first, China's equity assets are depressions, three main lines of investment, patience is the key.
from the subprime crisis to the United States, the stock market continues to rise, now in the United States "new economy" after the strongest bull market. Although the total market value of U.S. stocks has been 2 times the GDP, the valuation is at a high level of 75 points. Although there were bubbles in US technology stocks, multiple factors kept us at historically high levels since early 2017. At the same time, the European and Japanese stock markets are not cheap, the euro and the yen exchange rate is stronger.
China stock market from the subprime mortgage crisis, there is no significant rise in volatility, the current valuation is at a healthy level of 25 points. Economic cycles and equity valuations, and even market sentiment, are similar in 2004. Many people are still asking where the reform is Reform in the development of the concept of change, the economic stimulus from "put in"; reform in the supply side of the reform, so that the real economy to improve quality and efficiency, but also quietly between the central enterprises have been reduced to 98. Reform also lies in innovation, pays the price, also gains some fruits. Taking into account the reform on the road and the clear direction of the Chinese dream, China's A shares need to be more