House prices are going up again in 2018

Real estate house prices Shanghai Beijing

loushicankao· 2017-10-12 15:10:12

transfer: CRIC real estate research (ID:cricyjzx); Author: CRIC Research Center, Yang Kewei Li Zhen

small Q review:

market concerns the prices in the end will judge our views and decide on what path to follow, from three aspects.

"Kim Gu" lost color, "silver ten" was crashed, 8 days before the golden week turnover dropped over 60% key city. The continued downturn in

volume naturally discussed the future trend of prices, many from the media have forwarded and predicted emperor Ren Zhiqiang views on the market in 2018, said prices will appear again the explosive rise, there are two main reasons: one is the

, supply side of the supply of land for two consecutive years, the demand is reduced;

two the end of the first-tier cities population will continue to soar.

, we will not discuss the truth of the statement for the time being. We will talk about our views and judgments in three respects only on the basis of the price concerns of the market.

: the contradiction between short-term inventory continued to decline after 4 consecutive months edged up

in short supply is not to add any

from the National Bureau of statistics of commercial housing sale area or CRIC monitoring of 70 key city commercial housing inventory area to see the data changes, "obviously to stock stimulus effects, in a most the second tier city and part of the three or four line of the city has reversed the relationship between supply and demand -- to" stock compensation ", which is the market worried about future prices will continue to rise the basic logic.

but in the market after several months "frozen period", we monitor the key cities commodity housing inventory area began to accumulate, not only did not continue to decline sharply, but for 4 consecutive months, month by month rise slightly.

9 at the end of the month, 31 hot cities inventory area than 6, the end of the month rose 15, 17 cities inventory significantly higher than the end of 8. This seemingly slight change just shows that the current market supply and demand is gradually changing, the short supply of contradictions in the short term will not be exacerbated again.

interim land: land for large amplitude reduction was beginning to increase the supply of future

leasing, collective land and other initiatives for

2008 years, 300 cities nationwide land transaction the construction area rose sharply year by year, in 2014 part of the city began to highlight the problem of inventory, in 2013 became the stage vertex of the land market, after 3 years, many city active or passive large-scale reduction of land supply, real estate development and land supply declined for two consecutive years is also a fact.

" but in the two quarter of 2017, the city began to land supply generally increased, the three quarter of this year land transaction area of 529 million 740 thousand square meters, an increase of 4%.

according to the previous land supply in the second half of 4:6 unwritten rule projections, the 4 quarter of this year will be more than 700 million square metres of land transactions, and the year will exceed the 2016 level, an increase of about 10%.

", especially the first and second tier city since May, significantly increased the supply of land, land transactions monthly area is over 30 million square meters. Among them, the September transaction area of 53 million 230 thousand square meters, an increase of 36.5%.

alone in the first three quarters, Beijing and other first tier cities rose 145%, Xiamen and other hot cities in the second five years of land supply plan has been adjusted, an average annual supply of 600 thousand square meters.

is an increase in land supply, can not play an immediate effect on the supply of residential, but in the medium term, or even half a year will be in the form of commercial housing effective supply, changes in market supply and demand.

at the same time, it is worth noting that rental housing will become an important part of the future property market, the hot cities have increased rental housing land layout. Among them, Shanghai leasing land area of nearly 600 thousand square meters, and at the end of September the 4 cases of land leasing, the Shanghai launched a total of 19 cases of rental housing plots, is expected to be completed in 13th Five-Year during the supply of rental housing 700 thousand sets of goals.

Hangzhou city this year also launched a 90 thousand square metres of 100% pure rental land to encourage the development of rental housing. With the formation of effective rental housing supply, but also to a certain extent shunt housing market demand, making the market supply and demand relations are also partial change.

, while the rural collective construction land for the rental housing "open water", and will greatly change the first, second tier cities rental housing land supply shortage situation.

: more than 70% residents continue to leverage leverage difficult to continue

credit for preventing bubble risk

change as everyone knows, the current real estate market volume and price, is not really occupied demand caused by the lever, more funds continue to overweight leads to persistent, strong, wide coverage.

from the financial data released by the central bank, the pattern of high leverage housing residents did not reverse, the household sector long-term loans (including consumption and operating loans) accounted for the proportion of new loans continued

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