The central bank to the property market "lost a look", you understand it?

Property market Kunshan City Zhou Xiaochuan provident fund

wangyicaijing· 2017-10-22 00:25:38

10 evening of Sept. 19, the central bank announced the "President Zhou Xiaochuan at the central financial system delegation on the open day to answer a reporter's question" release on the official website.

problems, there are three, and the last one is about "risk prevention, deleveraging". President Zhou Xiaochuan spoke at the household sector debt ratio, said a thought-provoking words:

on the household sector debt leverage ratio, from global comparison, Chinese is not high, but in recent years to grow very fast. This is the speed that draws attention to the fact that it is not the lever now, but the quality of the growth process, the stability of the increments, and the quality of the growth.

my view is: this passage to the Chinese property market delivered a stable expectations, is good!

, let's read:

first, what is the debt rate of the Chinese household sector?.

's so-called "household sector debt ratio" refers to the proportion of household debt to GDP in the current period". By the end of 2016, China's household loans amounted to 33 trillion and 370 billion (including about 8 trillion of operating loans). The central bank announced two days before the end of the three quarter of 2017, household loans increased by 5 trillion and 730 billion. In this way, the current household loan balance is 39 trillion and 100 billion. This year's GDP is about 81 trillion and 500 billion, so it can calculate the debt ratio of the family sector to 48%.

, but this does not include the "provident fund loan" (8 at the end of 4 trillion and 360 billion), has not yet included between friends and relatives, small loan companies, P2P, private usury and other debts. A hypothesis of relatives, small loans, P2P and usury scale and provident fund loans, while the Chinese family debt rate is:

&pide 81.5=59%

(39.1+4.36+4.36); the United States and Japan as the representative of the major developed countries, the family debt rate is around 60%. According to the data of major OECD countries from 1980 to 2010, the results show that the debt cordon of residents should be 85%.

, that is to say, China's current household debt rate, mainly due to housing debt, is already close to the level of developed countries, but there is still some room to go from the cordon.

second, China's household debt rate is growing rapidly.

's rapidly rising debt ratio, especially the household debt ratio, is the B face of China's economic miracle. In 2007, China family debt rate is only 20%, then in 2009 to stimulate a market, from 2014 to 2016 and exciting again, so China family debt rate soared to nearly 60% (including bank loans reflect the debt rate is close to 50%). The

family debt rate rise too fast, easy to produce "Nishajuxia, subprime loans" and "junk credit", eventually lead to financial risk.

Zhou Xiaochuan said "improve the quality", its meaning should be: in the family debt rate continues to improve, in the process of lending money to the ability to repay just need, improve the demand of property buyers.

third, "not high", "not to say that we are going to leverage now" is the official basic attitude. This position can be seen from

Zhou Xiaochuan, the official that "urbanization + real estate + household debt rate is still an integral part of the future economic growth momentum, because there are real needs, can drive the Home Furnishing, building materials, automobile and home appliance giant industry chain.

it is worth noting that officials tend to use the "bank loan debt ratio" when it comes to China's household debt rate, which still does not reach 50%. Accumulation fund loans, private lending, relatives and friends lending, P2P and other debts seem to be ignored.

"not too high", "not to say that we are going to leverage now" means that China's household leverage (debt ratio) will continue to grow, but only to control the growth rate and quality.

generally, when you think the property market is about to collapse, relax measures will come:

today, media reports Kunshan municipal government issued "on the issuance of Kunshan City Housing professionals implementation measures (Trial) Notice", according to the above the crowd to relax the restriction, the specific terms are:

the following personnel after human society qualification, implementation of household population purchase policy:

1. in the city of Kunshan enterprises, for the purchase of on-the-job on-the-job, with a bachelor's degree or above personnel;

2. in the city of Kunshan enterprises, for the purchase of on-the-job on-the-job, with a college degree, and my professional position, and when meet the professional annual Kunshan Social Council "in Kunshan City Catalogue of scarce talent demand in point industry.

currently relax the restrictions on the purchase of talent, at least Nanjing, Zhongshan, Dongguan, Changsha, Kunshan and so on. And there will be more cities in the future to relax the restrictions.

don't believe it. We can walk around.

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