Why do you want to look at the big rub Lenovo?
xinlangcaijing· 2016-05-15 04:26:54
< p > the / Reuters opinion leaders column (micro channel number of public kopleader) columnist Jiang Bojing < Lenovo smartphones Zuk business also temporarily difficult to in a short period of time effective, and personal computer business faces the impact of the situation. So, not only the quarter Association will be big rub look bad, in the future quite a long period of time, Lenovo's situation is hardly optimistic. Class= img_box "
"content_img_p" why do you want to look bad? In late
5, Lenovo will announce its latest quarter results. Before the earnings announcement, Lenovo was a big rub look bad.
days ago, Morgan Stanley Lenovo Group rating, from the big city synchronization to reduce holdings, while the target price down from 7.2 yuan to 4.2 yuan. The reason is, "mainly due to the significant fall in the smartphone business, or have the opportunity to record losses, for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2016 shipments gradually decreased to less than 50% of total shipments for acquisition of Motorola mobility has been for the first time. "At the same time, according to" in the electronic newspaper "reported, Morgan Stanley believes that" Lenovo's primary source of cash for the personal computer business, but the business profit since the first quarter of 2016 financial report appears a trend of decline in the same period last year. "< p > may be affected by this, according to the report, Lenovo 10, gone against the tide fell 8.2%, closing news 5.23 yuan become full-time, the worst performance of the blue chips, a Lenovo four years low. Lenovo in the 10 day trading volume of 149 million 700 thousand shares, turnover of 793 million 300 thousand, the day of the transaction price, Lenovo Group, the market value of about 5 billion Hong Kong dollar evaporated.
in the last quarter, that is, in February 2016, Morgan Stanley's rating on the association or to maintain the 'synchronized with the big city, the target price of 7.2 yuan to see". At that time, Morgan Stanley that Lenovo even if there is a problem of inventory, but due to the "can be completed on schedule large-scale cut operation cost plan, and mobile business is expected to in front of the amortization expense profit", and have not to see a very bad Lenovo's prospects.
after a lapse of several months, Morgan Stanley on Lenovo's rating has plummeted. In fact, Morgan Stanley's rating on Lenovo is not without reason, but built on the basis of the performance of the association is not on the basis of.
we first look at the two business association is very unfavorable.
first, smart phone business.
at present, the major market research firm smart phone data reports have been released. Although the various data on the deviation, but basically reflects the current status of the major smart phone manufacturers. In the vast majority of the data report, Lenovo smartphone is in a very unfavorable position. In the vast majority of reports, the association of the data is very low.
take the two recent reports from our time as an example.
market research firm Analytics Strategy survey data show that in the first quarter of 2016, China's smart phone shipments of about 104 million 900 thousand, compared with the same period last year, 109 million 800 thousand decreased by 5%. HUAWEI, OPPO, millet, vivo, apple these five vendors, occupy the top five of China's smart phone market. But inside, and there is no association of the name. < p > and, according to presented released by the International Data Corporation (IDC)'s global mobile phone quarter tracking report preliminary data, global 2016 the first quarter smartphone shipments of five for Samsung, apple, Huawei, oppo, vivo. Similarly, the world's top five, there is no association of the name. < p > and according to IDC's latest report predicted that up to 3 months ended the quarter, Lenovo Group smart phone shipments 1080 million, down 42%, down 46% QoQ, far below the Wall Street expected 15 million to 18 million.
in before, there have been conducive to the association of data. For example, in mid April, the market research firm TrendFroce report shows that Lenovo smartphone shipments of 17 million. However, from the overall perspective, the major institutions are not optimistic about the association.
second, personal computer business.
's personal computer business, Lenovo is the performance of the "pillar", more than half of the country occupied Lenovo business. < p > to Lenovo 2016 released in February, the third quarter results, for example, when quaternary association group operating income 129.13 billion, the personal computer group (including personal computer and windows Tablet PC) quarter turnover to $80 billion. And the contribution of the personal computer business profits, but also the proportion is not small.
but, as mentioned earlier, Lenovo's PC business profits since the first quarter of 2016 earnings showed a downward trend over the same period last year. Or in February 2016 released third quarter results, for example, Lenovo PC business pre tax profit of $4.05 billion, down 18%. < p > and according to the market research firm canalys released the latest report shows that the first quarter of 2016, including desktops, notebooks, 2 $1 devices and tablet computers, global PC equipment shipments to 1.01 million units, down 13%, a record since the second quarter of 2011, the lowest on record. "This shows that the personal computer business environment is not optimistic.
in the Canalys report, Lenovo ranked second after Apple ranked. Lenovo PC device shipments in the first quarter of 75 million, compared with the same period last year fell by 10%.
personal computer business, Lenovo is not optimistic.
remove the two main business, Lenovo's enterprise business has not been filed Morgan, presumably is irrelevant!
so, be big rub look bad, Lenovo future how to get through? What will it be like in the future?
in March 2016 and April, Lenovo has a big move. But from the time perspective, the internal integration of the association and the new business development will not directly affect the results of this quarter earnings. So, this quarter earnings is very difficult to see has been inevitable. However, if the association of internal integration and new business can be carried out smoothly, then it is difficult to say.
first, Lenovo internal integration". 2016 years in March, Lenovo Group Chairman and CEO Yang Yuanqing through the internal letter, announced a major restructuring of the association to carry out the organization. In this letter, Yang Yuanqing said, Lenovo's business will be re assembled into a Lenovo venture group, mobile business group, personal computer and intelligent equipment group and data center business group.
second, Lenovo Mobile once again small integration". April 1, 2016, Lenovo, senior vice president, mobile business group co President Chen Xudong issued a letter of internal, announced the Lenovo Mobile re integration, magic workshop will return to Lenovo Group, and Lenovo original MBG China team and original ECS team game new MBG China business team.
from the size of the above two times the size of the integration, Lenovo intends to "big integration", to revive the performance of Lenovo Lenovo Mobile intention through the "small integration" in the Chinese smart phone market to win the initiative. The effect of the two integration, will appear in the future.
so, we look at Lenovo's smart phones and personal computers two major business in the future will be how to.
first, smart phone.
after the "integration" and "integration", Lenovo Mobile first after the integration of action, rapidly in April 21, released to return to the magic shop after the new flagship phones -- Lenovo Zuk Z2 pro. Didn't seem to fit in the trend of Internet development of Lenovo Mobile, uncharacteristically, declaring Zuk Z2 Pro record nine "world first". Lenovo Group senior vice president, mobile business group co President Chen Xudong more bluntly: "the first thing we need to do is to create a good product, the good product to tree stand public praise, make mobile phone users in China really love. "Lenovo smart mobile phone want to borrow China market", "stage a comeback and thus boost the performance of the Lenovo Group to pick up the very obvious intention.
is very clear, the return of ZUK will not affect the upcoming release of the new financial results, the future of the association will have how to affect it? < p > I feel, even Zuk new flagship airs is enough, whatever it is, it is later, want to in the Chinese market challenges Huawei, oppo, millet, vivo, apple this five manufacturers, as well as three stars, the difficulty is very big. What's more, Meizu, LETV, 360 and other manufacturers, are sharpening, competition pressure is not small. In the short term, due to historical factors, Lenovo Mobile still need to continue its internal multi brand running, ZUK want to play its advantages have to wait. As Lenovo Mobile phone market in China as a, I feel in the short term is not as large as overseas markets. The Chinese market has become the Red Sea, and the overall shipments showed a downward trend in sync, the future is not optimistic. So, in the smart phone business, lenovo mobile phone may be better, but it is not easy to return to the peak period of fear.
second, personal computer.
objectively speaking, Lenovo's current hope is still in the personal computer business.
however, the overall market downturn in the personal computer market is much more serious than the smart phone. Said earlier, according to canalys PC shipments in the statistical report, first quarter of 2016, including tablet PC shipment volume of the same period last year decreased by 13%, the quarter become since after the second quarter of 2011, PC shipments was the largest drop in a quarter. And the future, it seems that more can not be optimistic. < according to media reports, canalys senior analyst Tim & middot; will further deteriorate the kulin prediction for PC, he said: "the global PC market in 2016 from a bad start future quarters it is difficult to see the highlights. Tablet PC boom has receded, the market has been saturated. Unless the manufacturer can bring change innovation, otherwise the global shipments of the landslide will continue. Taking into account the purchase of the first PC crowd is at a historic low, in 2016 the global PC manufacturers are likely to face a more serious adverse situation. "
and the context of the association, the same situation is not good. Global market research firm TrendForce latest Notebook PC shipments report shows that in the first quarter of 2016, Lenovo has replaced HP as the first, but Lenovo in the first quarter shipments decreased by 10%. And, due to the downstream channel of the association in the first quarter continued accumulation of inventory, so the industry is expected to be in the form of Lenovo in the second quarter is not good. < p > from the above, Lenovo smartphones Zuk business also temporarily difficult to in a short period of time effective, and personal computer business is facing the impact of the situation. So, not only the quarter Association will be big rub look bad, in the future for quite a long period of time, Lenovo's situation is hardly optimistic.
(the author of this article: the author of the column, the first World Conference on the Internet, the best news commentary award winner, iDoNews signed a column author.)