Ren Zeping's last "seller shouting": next year, buying stock, buying a house in the next year
huaerjiejianwen· 2017-12-07 09:39:47
editor's note: Ren Zeping calls himself an incurable optimist. ", I believe what you believe in, you can see . What you see is hope, and you can see hope. What you see is darkness, and what you see is darkness. You believe in God, you see God, you believe in love, you can see love, " but there is pragmatism in the point of view.
think, A shares do not fully reflect the economic fundamentals Chinese , many new economic good companies in overseas markets, while in many domestic money, take PPT financing of the company, it will return value. When it comes to the property market,
recommends that we should focus on the development of the metropolitan area in the future. points out that the practice of controlling the scale of big cities is not anti civilization.
this article comes from Sina synthesis, the original title "deep interview Ren Zeping: I am an irreparable optimist."
source WeChat public number: a personnel agency
12 weishiduo assembly on 4 March afternoon appointment notice maxed out the circle of friends, Hengda Group Chairman Xu Jiayin personally issued the famous economic analyst Ren Zeping a monthly salary of 1 million 250 thousand yuan entry Hengda Group, Hengda Group served as chief economist (vice president) and Hengda Economic research institute.
's Founder Securities Research Institute Co director Ren Zeping, before the entry of Founder Securities, has served as the macro economic development research center of the State Council Research Center Deputy Director, Department of research and chief macroeconomic analyst at Guotai Junan Securities, the Ministry of science and technology of National High-tech Zone upgrade evaluation experts other important positions, ranking in the new wealth analyst in the past three years, he ranked the top three macro economy.
not only failed to predict the Shanghai Stock Index breaking 5000 points when he was in the stock market downturn in 2014, but also put forward the idea of "first tier house price doubling", "economic L type" and "new cycle", which were widely recognized by the market. Before leaving
Founder Securities, Ren Zeping accepted the human financial observers, Qin Shuo friends sponsor, CO director of China commercial civilization research center of Qin Shuo's invitation, in Himalaya FM studio, on the topic of concern, about your future is not money will shrink, about the price inflection point will come on all popular you know, it is probably a mistake to judge. The following is the dialogue record:
China May 10 years rewriting the world economic map
Qin: Recently I saw you wrote some articles, have some of their systematic views on the new era of the new cycle, you think, China overall economic scale, development level of per capita GDP in the world, including the Chinese in the economic discourse or the rules set right, do you think from these indicators, compared with the United States, about how many years we next time may be more than him?
: China and the United States from the GDP, first to say the total amount, and now the United States of GDP approximately 25% of the world, China accounts for roughly 14 to 15%. But one thing is to be noted that China's economic growth is higher than that of the United States. The United States is now growing by about 2% a year, and our average annual growth rate is 9.8% from 78 to 08 years in 30 years. China is now growing at a growth rate of about 6% every year, three times the growth rate in the United States. , in roughly 10 to 15 years, the total economic volume of China should be more normal than that of the US. I think this is the first from the perspective of total volume. What does this mean by
? That is to say, in another 15 years or so, in 10-20 years or so, China will become the world's largest economy. It will rewrite the world's economic map, discourse territory and governance structure, which will bring about a profound change. Because we pay attention to in various international occasions, leaving a lot of Chinese, no agreement is reached, the various forums are in fact about China issues that China voice is more and more strong, the growing influence, but also means that Chinese in the future will have more responsibilities, for example, the environment of global governance protection.
second from per capita. There are nearly 1 billion 400 million people in China, and 320 million in the US. Our GDP per capita is about more than 8000 now, which is less than 9000. The average GDP in the US is about 50 thousand dollars now. Although as long as we can be promoted smoothly in the development strategy and the structural reform of the supply side, the total amount exceeds the day of the United States. But we both don't overbearing, not improperly belittle oneself, because we with the United States there is a big gap in per capita terms, we need to continue to promote our reform and opening up, China need to convert the mode of economic growth, including this one nineteen report put forward from the rapid growth stage to the development stage of high quality , of course growth, development, is just a tool, the ultimate goal is to say in the nineteen report to meet the people's growing life.
China is entering the stage of consumption oriented economic development.
Qin: this year's double 11 China's 24 hour order volume is almost 300 billion, the Ali platform about 160000000000, Jingdong has 127 billion 100 million, this number is very, very large. More of this online shopping is the consumption of the Internet generation. I noticed the last one of you