In these 10 cities, house prices may fall?

House prices turnover financial crisis

rong360· 2017-12-10 04:15:07

" recently, Nankai University issued a "China City family housing consumption survey report (2017)", the 70 city nationwide property was evaluated, put forward the following key points:

1, residents purchase housing prices may be within two years fall 10 city is the biggest in Luoyang, Wenzhou, Shenzhen, Beihai, Mudanjiang, Jinzhou, Guiyang, Haikou, Xi'an and Jining . 10 city

2, the first 3 quarters of 2017 housing prices than expected the biggest risk for in Xiamen, Sanya, Haikou, Bengbu, Guangzhou, Shaoguan, Zhanjiang, Tangshan, Changsha and Beihai ; 2016 housing prices than expected at greatest risk for the city of Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Beijing, Hefei, Shanghai housing prices in 2015 than expected; the biggest risk for the city of Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Mudanjiang, Guangzhou.

housing prices exceed the expected risk. Cities fluctuate a lot every year, mainly depending on the housing price increase ratio. From the list of listed cities, we can see that this is a relatively big increase in housing prices this year.

is more attractive than the risk list. The list of the most likely cities to drop in prices is more attractive. I believe that many rigid demand are also looking forward to their own housing prices falling to their own capacity. Therefore, the following number is mainly the analysis of the 10 cities which may have fallen by the name of Nankai University. Why are

these 10 cities? The reason for the report is based on its statistical housing price decline risk index. Most of the names of the 10 cities that may fall in the report listed by

are mostly disagreed with each other. Especially for high grade cities such as Shenzhen and Xi'an, they are deeply skeptical.

in today's strong control background, supply and demand were suppressed, short-term fluctuations in prices rose and fell to normal, but in high level city not staged, because the price is no longer the pure market, but with the related policy, the government will not allow prices high level change radically because this kind of city, a city the whole body.

Shenzhen has always been the title of the "property market vane". Once the house price slumped, it will lead to the chain reaction of hot cities and trigger a systemic financial crisis, which is a consequence that no one can afford.

therefore, from the government level, the so-called Shenzhen and Xi'an are all false propositions. , of course, such as Mudanjiang, Jinzhou and so on, there may be a sharp drop in population loss. Because of its low city level and small influence, it also allows it to collapse. Under

, from the point of view of the population and the land supply, the so-called 10 likely slumping cities will not fall. Before

looked at the population and land supply data, it looked at the price changes of the 10 cities in the past year.

data from the

Chinese market prices can be seen from the figure, Haikou, Xi'an, Luoyang, Beihai four city prices rose this year is very powerful, Haikou and Xi'an within one year of housing prices doubled. Although Shenzhen is under huge regulatory pressure, house prices are still up 20%. In the

10 cities, Jinzhou is the most eye-catching. In the past year, housing prices in Jinzhou have been quite stable and a small decrease of 1%. Therefore, I think this report is an incredible presence for Jinzhou to be listed among the most likely cities to fall. But after reading the population data, it's not surprising.

data is calculated based on the statistics of the City Statistical Bureau, of which Beihai data is missing.

is a picture of the changes in the number of pupils in several cities over the past six years. The reason why the number of pupils is used is because the permanent population is linked to the achievements of the local government, and the accuracy is distorted. Taking Shenzhen as an example, the official resident population in 2016 was 11 million 908 thousand and 400. The number of senior leaders in public showed many times that the actual population of Shenzhen has been over 20 million. Primary school students can reflect the population changes relatively accurately.

from the data can see that the population of Shenzhen has been growing very well over the past six years. According to the previous census, the population data of hot cities can be known, and in all hot cities, Shenzhen's population growth is also in the forefront.

Jining, Xi'an, Haikou and Wenzhou are all growing. The growth of the population will inevitably lead to a rise in the demand for the purchase of the house. Therefore, from the point of view of population growth, Shenzhen, Jining, Xi'an, Haikou and Wenzhou do not have the foundation of slump.

Heilongjiang Mudanjiang and Liaoning Jinzhou, the population has been greatly lost in the past six years, without population support. The city level is not enough. Housing prices do have a risk of falling. In fact, not only Jinzhou, Mudanjiang, the Northeast population in the loss, before I had counted all the data in Northeast China City, found that over the past six years the population growth only in Shenyang city.

then looked at the land transaction in the past few years.

data from the Chinese Index Research Institute

the city from several statistical Chinese Index Research Institute for nearly three years of residential land transactions, in Jinzhou, Mudanjiang, the Jining, Luoyang is not included in the statistics.

in population

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