Sun Hongbin: I'm very pessimistic about real estate

Sun Hongbin house price monetary policy

21caijingsousuo· 2017-12-11 18:39:50

Original title:

Sun Hongbin: the biggest uncertainty is expected on the real estate, I very pessimistic

" Author: Sun Hongbin

source: Financial Information Conference (ID:fci0630)

near the end of the year, SUNAC China chairman Sun Hongbin became active in various forums on. On the 9 th of

12, Sun Hongbin appeared in the fourth session of the ping an real estate finance innovation forum. He predicted the macroeconomic situation and the future housing market's policy situation, price trend, market demand and risk.

, he said, is not going to change policy in the short run. How far is the long-term policy on the road? We don't know what policy is not known. The uncertainty is bigger. The most uncertain thing is expectation, which affects the expectations of the people.

for the next year, the real estate market, Sun Hongbin's judgment is a little better than in 2017, although the policy will not change, but will relax a bit, "a lot of the city has been very uncomfortable, the existing policy tone may be a little loose a little, the price will be slightly more a little loose. "

and the risk of future industry is" to buy expensive ".

"who is expensive to buy no one can do, to buy cheap fool can make money. They are cheaper than others, and products and brands are better than others. They have strong premium ability and strong sales ability, so there is no such high risk.

also, on this forum, Sun Hongbin once again publicized his strategy of great entertainment and good life to the outside world, which almost became the standard of Sun Hongbin's speech.

below is the record of Sun Hongbin's speech in the Forum:

is not sure about the choice of market environment.

, when I saw this topic in the morning, was very scary. I drank too much yesterday. Why do I want to use this topic? I want to say, actually, there is not much choice. No matter how the market is changing or how the market is uncertain, it is for developers whether to buy the land, whether to sell the house or not. How much is the original house still need to be considered, and it is not for sale now. The price is to be taken into consideration. Now the government has made the starting price very high, the price is already very expensive, and the land price will not be considered. It is to buy or not to buy, to sell the house, and to choose the two things.

if there are only these two choices, I want to say four things: where is the uncertainty from

? How uncertain is it? The two is our two judgment on the market; three is the risk of the industry; and the four is the choice.

first, there are many uncertainties in the market, especially in the real estate market, macro monetary policy and everything. is now more uncertain about policy. What does the policy bring? First, the current policy is to bring to the market, and the land market is not very marketable. Second, sales policy, sales policy is basically to liquidity, because you don't want to sell, or sell it to the record, not just not loans, not loans will not cast production, in terms of liquidity, I always support the government in July last year, we also interviewed, I was the advice is, to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, part of the land, the volume rate improved, now we also support the policy, if not, prices rose higher, prices higher, so the risk is big, so the need for short-term policy.

is not going to change policy in the short run. How far is the long-term policy on the road? I don't know what policy is not known. The uncertainty is really bigger. It was hoped that the nineteen major policies could be loosened later. After the nineteen, it seemed to be more tight. After that, it was hoped that after the two meetings, it would not be expected.

if it really goes up, it may really not go up. Why? The most uncertain is the expectation that you have affected the expectations of the people. The development of the rental market is also the original lease. The new rental housing can not be many. There can not be so many funds, resources, and too many increments. In fact, it still has an impact on the expectation. After the expected impact, it will not increase if it is released.

has two reasons, many city doubled or more than doubled, then let it up I think it is quite difficult, in 2009 prices rose up, prices high, Hangzhou's housing prices did not rise for five or six years, this is what I have always said the Hangzhou phenomenon, Hangzhou phenomenon in many the city will appear. The biggest problem of uncertainty is expected uncertainty. I am pessimistic about real estate. Housing prices have never been allowed to rise and become everyone's habit. This is the first thing. Where uncertainty comes from, from all sides, there is uncertainty in every place, and the greatest uncertainty is expectation.

second, the first judgment is the judgment of the market, I feel a little better in 2018 than in 2017, the policy will not change, will be slightly relax a little, a lot of city has been very uncomfortable, the existing policy tone may be a little loose a little, the price will be slightly more a little loose. In October prices may rise a little, according to GDP growth, may rise a little, the record is not so difficult, it is certain that this 2018 may be slightly better than 2017, 2017 because of stability issues, before the general assembly is stable, after the general assembly is stable, my judgment is 2018

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