China's credit policy contraction has begun?
xinlangcaijing· 2016-05-16 15:15:05
< p > / Sina Finance opinion leaders (micro channel number of public kopleader) columnist Shen Jianguang < binding authoritative speech and April credit data, can judge the Chinese monetary policy in the process of robust regression will have to tighten, but the sudden change in direction will be a great risk. The next stage, the return of monetary policy steady, with the force of fiscal policy, you can hold the bottom line of steady employment and risk prevention. Class=
China credit policy has begun to shrink? < p > the central bank 5? August 13 release credit data, 4 month new RMB loan from 1.37 trillion yuan in March dropped 60%. To 5556 billion yuan, less than the expected 80 billion yuan; social financing scale from March 2.3 trillion plunged 68% to 75.1 billion yuan, reaching only half of the $1.3 trillion expected; M2 growth also from 13.4% dropped to 12.8%. Among them, the non - financial enterprises and institutions in the long-term loans to reduce 43 billion yuan, is the lowest value since the beginning of the credit data statistics. "People's Daily" published 9 sun edition with the headline "authority" to the evaluation of Chinese economic situation "to completely abandon the attempt by monetary easing overweight to accelerate economic growth, bigger denominator reduced leverage fantasy" speech, people feel Chinese channel of the monetary policy has turned sharply, initiating a tightening channel < binding. < p > the author published in authoritative reports published "Chinese economic policy three new orientation", the economic stimulus pointed out, especially by add leverage and excessive credit stimulus efforts to the economic policy may be reduced, 4? Month credit data may explain central in the prior to the release of authoritative speech has already begun to adjust. But I judge, although monetary policy and the early easing efforts will be reduced, there is no possibility of a 180 degree change in the direction of the.
the judgment based on the following three points based on: first
, fell in April credit data is to first quarter of excessive lending to adjust, and there are four huge month the size of local government debt issuance of credit substitution effect.
according to the latest WIND data, in April the local government bonds issued by the size of 1 trillion and 60 billion, compared to February's 166 billion 800 million and March's 7887 billion issued a substantial increase. In the local debt replacement force under the background of enterprise loans out of effect, cause some distortion of M2 and credit data. And, in April, Shanghai interbank offered rates did not change significantly compared to the previous March, capital costs remain low and there is no tightening.
retrospective data for the first quarter, the RMB loans increased by 4 trillion and 610 billion yuan, an increase of 930 billion 100 million over the first quarter of 2009, a record high of 4.59 in the first quarter. By the first quarter of the amount of data on concerns over credit to stimulate the economy, coupled with the April credit debt default frequent, guard against bad loans increased by systemic financial risk, questioning unsustainable voice heard through credit to promote economic growth. With this year's new RMB loans to 13 trillion yuan to estimate, the first quarter of the new credit has reached around 40% of the year, April credit data fell back on the first quarter of the natural adjustment. < p > the second, Authority spokesman review, there are two points worthy of attention: authorities did not put forward to give up 6.5% - 7% growth target, the judgement of economic situation cautious, reflecting the economy needs underpinning the necessity of; the attitude while opposed to the massive stimulus, but stressed that "to stabilize and expand employment" and "economic risk prevention", the objective need relatively relaxed policy support.
first of all, the authorities did not propose to abandon the 6.5%-7% growth target for the first quarter of the economic situation is relatively cautious judgment. He said, "in general, the economic situation of the start of this year is stable. Economic operation of the overall situation in line with expectations, some highlights better than expected.
however, the inherent contradictions of economic operation has not eased, some of the new problems are also beyond expectations. Therefore, it is difficult to use simple concept of 'start' 'rebound' and described "." however, there is no denying the fact, we face the inherent contradiction did not fundamentally solved, new problems have also been exposed. "Stability" is still mainly rely on the "old way", that is, investment pull, some areas of the financial balance of the greater pressure, the probability of economic risk increases". Authoritative judgment of economic situation cautious, reflecting the necessity of underpinning. < secondly, authorities although against flood irrigation expansion way to economy a shot in the arm, but also said "demand side plays a role in solving the main contradiction to create an environment. Authorities in the text of the nine times provided to "employment", emphasize "to stabilize and expand employment is the important goal of macroeconomic policy; authority with a topic to answer the question" how to prevent financial risks, is proposed and expected to manage the importance and expected management key is policy "stable". And "stability and expansion of employment" and "guard against economic risks" objectively require relatively loose policy environment support. < p > in fact, throughout the text, pundits criticized for policy stimulus, mainly in the "degree", emphasis is "high leverage is the original sin, clearly pointed out that" investment expansion is only 'modest', not 'excessive' ". Therefore, the author interprets the authority figures release signal is to reduce the intensity of stimulus, rather than against all loose policy.
third, China is now in a very complex and critical period, even if to keep the "L" growth may be faced with many challenges, this time a substantial tightening of monetary policy is also difficult to bear the reality. Here and there are three factors:
first, China is now in the domestic and foreign environment is complex. Home in the face of the "economic growth speed shift and structural adjustment pains, pre stimulus policy digestion period" of "three overlay problems and contradictions of the status, China's economic growth in the next step, from 14% to 10% to 6.9 per cent last year, to guard against financial risks, stable employment market is still serious. At the same time, China's economy rebounded in March, but the recent economic data released in April less than expected, the investment rebound trend has also been reversed, the economy can keep the "L" based on the unreliable.
and the international environment is not optimistic, the global economic downturn is not. The world's major central bank to maintain extremely loose monetary policy, the Federal Reserve also postponed the interest rate hike. In particular, the uncertainty brought about by changes in the dollar, to prevent the financial crisis increasingly test the wisdom of the decision-making layer.
second, the authority stressed the core point of view is the supply side of reform, and reform is a long-term process, and stable economic and social environment to create conditions for reform. To reform and you will have price and pains, factory closures will undoubtedly to the industrial production, employment, consumption and short-term impact, deleveraging is bound to cause short-term liquidity crunch and a shortage of funds, to break the rigid payment for debt default will naturally lead to the cost of capital market rise and temporary loss of confidence, suddenly to prick the bubble will bring the turmoil in the financial markets and even lead to financial crisis. Therefore, a certain degree of easing is the need for steady growth.
again, the specific operation of the reform also is full of uncertainty, also need policy underpinning. Supply side reform how to change, how to promote a lot of controversy in the specific implementation of the process. In fact, at the end of last year, the author of the central economic work conference reveals the three major difficulties, the article pointed out that the ideal vision for balanced growth and structural adjustment, in the implementation of multiple objectives inevitably exist contradictions. Whether it is to production capacity, or to leverage, in the economic downturn, how to protect the growth of more than 6.5%? In addition, the key to production capacity and to leverage is also in the reform of state-owned enterprises, in the end is bigger and stronger, or the introduction of modern corporate governance system, let the market play a decisive role? < / P > < p > in summary / >, the author believes that the combination of authoritative speech and April credit data can determine China's monetary policy in the process of robust regression will have to tighten, but the sudden change in direction will also have very big risk. If the supply side structural reform, especially the reform of state-owned enterprises can effectively promote and get rid of the dependence of monetary, reshape the economic structure of opportunities than other countries, of course, as the author in the monetary policy can not bear the heavy, "a text emphasized over and over again, to sustain the global economy monetary policy alone, compared with countries, China still has a space of fiscal policy. Therefore, the next stage, the return of monetary policy steady, with the force of fiscal policy, you can hold the bottom line of steady employment and risk prevention. In this paper, the author:
(Ph.D., chief economist at Mizuho Securities Asia director general manager of the company. Visiting professor, School of economics, Fudan University, China new supply economics forum of 50 members.)