Social commentary: The situation in Iran is highly mysterious and must not be viewed simply

Trump invest

huanqiuwang· 2020-01-05 17:52:14

President Trump has stated that if Americans and American targets are attacked, the United States will not hesitate to destroy Iran's 52 targets. He also said that some "new and beautiful" equipment would be launched at Iran. Earlier, officials of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard stated that Iran had targeted 35 US targets in the Middle East. The commander who succeeded Suleimani said that people would see Americans "walking in the wild" in the Middle East.

These may be threats to each other. Iran needs to appease its army and its people. The United States wants to scare Iran from taking revenge. But the logic that the United States wants to use warnings to keep Iran calm and ensure foolproof is fragile.

Just as President Trump wanted to win support by killing Suleimani, the Iranian regime is also under tremendous pressure to make the United States "blood debt." Taking no action at all is politically dangerous to Iran's current regime, and analysts across the world are generally not optimistic that things will simply end in this way.

Iran may bet that "the United States in election year can't afford war in particular" and take some revenge. Or Tehran restrained, but some pro-Iranian Middle East forces retaliated against US targets. There are also possible attacks around the world against American targets where no responsible person can be found. No matter what the situation may be, a sensitive situation can be formed immediately.

In theory, when the United States and Iran are highly strained and the escalation of the conflict is imminent, there will be a force to be attracted and mobilized, and actions will be taken to make the two sides' further fights come true. Therefore, if the United States and Iran do not really want to go to a large-scale war, the two sides must lower the door adjustment and give less chances for various impetuous impulse. Don't let them say things but they don't really want to do things that they cannot control. The way comes true.

Here we also tell the Chinese public that if the United States and Iran go to war in full swing, China will do more harm than good to China. The idea that chaos in the Middle East can hold back American energy and prevent it from achieving a strategic shift in focus on China is too simple.

If the Middle East is chaotic, it will indeed make it harder for the United States to escape, and it will distract the United States. But at the same time, we can see that China's oil purchases from the Middle East are already the largest in the world, far exceeding the United States' dependence on Middle East oil. In addition, China has a lot of investment in Iran, Iraq, and many countries in the Middle East. That region has long been related to China's economic interests. The impact of the Middle East chaos on the interests of the United States and China is different and complicated.

The chaos in the Middle East will not affect the US's strategic vigilance against China, but it may change the US's order of urgency. This sort of change can only be very short-term and not very useful to China. The United States regards China as a strategic competitor. This positioning cannot be changed. In the long run, China cannot expect a regional conflict to help us alleviate the pressure on the top of the strategy. China must build long-term capacity to cope with US pressure.

China's ability to influence the trend of the US-Iraq conflict is very limited, and our opinion cannot be the main basis for the decision of either side of the US-Iraq. This should make them clear to both sides and avoid misreading.

At the same time, we are also a publicly and morally important third party. The US bombing of Suleimanni violated international law and undermined regional peace. This should be the basic understanding of the state of affairs in Chinese public opinion. We should give Iran more sympathy, which is a necessary balance to ease the situation in the region. Iran, which has suffered such a big loss, needs more comfort from international public opinion, and all parties should not further stimulate it and force it to honor its threat of retaliation against the United States.

We noticed that the killing of Suleimani was also subject to much controversy in the United States. It is hoped that those in power in the United States will assess the situation and refrain from going too far on Iran.

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