Who disturbed the stock market? Goldman Sachs said China's huge real estate bubble
huanqiulaohucaijing· 2016-05-22 09:52:10
according to foreign financial website zerohedge reports, for fall on Wednesday, the Shanghai index of 1.3%, the market exists a looks intriguing explanation: because of China's real estate bubble is no speed growth, the Chinese gamblers speculators still crazy will cash pumping out of equities and into the market, so that China's stock market is facing a greater risk of collapse.
recent National Bureau of statistics report shows April economic overall decline, with the exception of real estate to outshine others, sales growth rose 44.1%, a 13 year high. Is this data disturbing the stock market?
Goldman Sachs concluded that, in April China's main market prices in the seasonally adjusted growth of 1.1%, higher than the March growth rate. In the 70 cities monitored by the Bureau of statistics, there are 63 cities housing prices have increased over the previous month. On the basis of the population weighted, the prices of the 70 cities increased by 6.9% compared with the same period last year (5.5% in March). But according to MarketNews's calculations, these figures are far more outrageous, with overall housing prices up 12.4% in April (up from 10.4% in March).
however, Zerohedge noted that the overall property market is not China's bubble disturbing, hidden in fact mainly concentrated in the first tier cities. For example, prices in the first tier cities in April after the seasonally adjusted, growth of 2.6%, March was 3%.
but shocking is that, compared with the same period last year, the first tier cities housing prices rose as high as 28.3% in March, an increase of 26%. Goldman Sachs said that if you want to fully demonstrate China's real estate bubble, it is clear that a greater need for a chart. By the way, according to 2015 data, the first tier cities real estate sales accounted for about 5% of the total sales of real estate, accounting for 15% of the value of the calculation.
however this is not the highest, the average property prices in second and third tier cities also significantly increased: in the second tier cities (Goldman defined 11 cities), seasonally adjusted, the real estate price annulus comparing growth of 1.3%, higher than the 1.1% in March. Three line city house prices rose 0.7%, higher than the 0.5% in March, four line city growth of 0.4%, higher than the 0.3% in March. Class= img_box "
"content_img_p" these data are in fact consistent with the price data released by the housing network in April. In addition, the continued surge in prices also contributed to the real estate industry investment and construction activities strong performance. < p > the repetition of the real estate bubble also explain why China's reason is in the people's daily front page story "the pundits" said, warned that the bubble population, China to crack down on... Just not too?. < p > here is constantly mentioned in the real estate bubble also explains why "authority" can cause so much attention of domestic and foreign media, talking about China's current economic articles, he reminded the Chinese real estate bubble risk, and points out that the high lever must brake, and through the "urbanization" to the inventory.
although China's real estate bubble is not yet broken, speculative real estate should risk prevention, because in the face of over stir the property market, the government may at any time be the introduction of more stringent policy of real estate. In addition, a second tier cities in the property market has been overdraft, there is no chance of rose. For those crazy to get to the ground king, once the central bank to stop the water, the space will be very limited real estate premium, after all, China's road to inventory is slow and long.