Volatility stock index rose 0.30% non-ferrous metal sector led
tengxunzhengquan· 2016-04-18 17:51:42
disk, public transport, nonferrous metals, software services sector rose, coal, paper and other plates fell. < while a dividend factors increased significantly, for example, CPI, PPI, a quarter of GDP, and so on a number of important economic data are reflected in the economic fundamentals are positive factors to verify the expected economic recovery; overseas markets, the federal reserve position partial pigeon ". However, A-share market is not A "wind up", but is facing a variety of good to choose sideways. Analysts believe that each stage rose need new push factors, the lack of significant stimulus and then sideways is a weak rebound a. And last month or not small, the structure of the month is inevitable differentiation; small plates and gem are near the half line, the pressure is normal. On the surface, liangnengbuzu, hot wheels fast mean factors do not have market breakthrough. < p > the other, publicly available data show that the upcoming fifth and sixth in the two cities will usher in the peak lifting of the ban, a total of lifted the market value of up to 4602.78 billion, the six month lifted the market value of is high up 2682.7 billion, after the lifting of the ban in 12 this year, called in the second wave solution forbidden peak. Notable is, four in the last two weeks (April 18 to April 29), two cities stocks lifted the market value has 1194.84 billion, that is to say, may before the two cities are facing pressure on the lifting of the ban can not be underestimated. < p > Southwest Securities recently issued a research reported, rebound will continue, but the upside is limited, the future need to pay attention to the economic downward and upward interest rate risk.
from the macroeconomic level, although there are signs of stabilization, but need to guard against the rapid decline in the role of the marginal stimulus. First, the economic stimulus needed to greatly increase the use of resources; second, there is no world economy stimulus package, which makes the stimulating effect of China alone will be greatly reduced; thirdly, the efficiency of Chinese stimulus is rapidly decreased: GDP loans for the first quarter of 2016 to promote the ratio has fallen to 0.23, that is almost 5 dollars in loans to promote 1 yuan GDP growth; fourth, many investment projects under the stimulus policy is likely to be converted to potential bad debts to the financial burden of the government or a bank in the future; fifth, the past many years and taken in order to prevent the China economic stall demand side stimulus has made the economy debt ratio rising rapidly. < p > China Merchants Securities believes that the current market through the "breakthrough" and "touching", "giant earthquake", "fan Chou", officially entered the stage of "fish". Do not rule out the "lingering" time will be longer than ever. At this point, the need to finance, the trend of the Internet to observe the popularity of the financial.
economic data to determine the height of the market rebound. The tracking of three indicators (credit, cement, Shenzhen real estate) can not be regarded as than expected, only credit data slightly better for straddle both sides provides daydream space, but the market is suspected of credit easing and estate sales growth rate peaked. Can only say that this: 1) continue to follow; 2) the perspective of hedge, continue to suggest that absolute income pocket for security, the relative gains of wait for windfalls.
Securities believes that the rebound in the two quarter window period, the supply side is still optimistic about the configuration of the theme of the reform. Recommendations concern: first of all, coal, steel and other traditional cycle of the industry leader, the biggest beneficiaries of supply side reforms; second, prices type chemical sub sectors, some varieties of non-ferrous metal and the management of non-performing assets, such as benefit similarly from the sub sector of the supply side reforms; third, to grasp the investment opportunities in the shell company of state-owned enterprises, from the market value of the small, poor performance, transformation high demand for three dimensional degree screening of potential targets. Fourth, concerned about the deep, A shares included in the MSCI index and other new event driven theme. It is reported that, at present, the HKEx has good technical preparations, Shenzhen Tong launched in 2016 will be a high probability event. Unique plate, QFII favored industries and AH discount shares and other worthy of attention.
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