Over the real estate market: tomorrow will be better?
jinrongjie· 2016-06-15 14:37:55
Bureau of statistics data released yesterday showed that production continues steady, demand growth began to fall, and the real economy investment will decline again, private investment increased downhill to historic lows, as economic highlights of the past few months the real estate market is entered the downlink channel. specifically:
5 months, new housing construction area growth rate dropped from 25.9% in April to 10.6%; the growth rate of
real estate development and investment rose from 9.6% in April to 6.5%;
commercial housing, residential sales area grew 24.2% and 22% respectively, were higher than the growth rate in April dropped 19.8 percentage points and 23.9 percentage points;
1-5 month and the real estate development enterprise funds 5 trillion and 370 billion yuan, an increase of 16.8%, compared to 1-4 months flat;
personal mortgage loans 883 billion 800 million yuan, an increase of 58.5%.
loose real economic and monetary environment changes in the real estate demand has also entered the down channel. Real estate investment prospects face continued slowdown in pressure, Everbright Securities (quotes 601788, buy) chief economist Xu Gao said.
Goldman Sachs Gao Hua and even China's real estate industry will usher in the 6 to 9 months after the turning point, the price tends to be down in 2017.
but there are also analysis that May real estate data callback as expected, prices will remain strong in the short term. Even if tomorrow will not be better, the situation is not bad.
King tide predicted stage prices peaked? Goldman Sachs predicted that the real estate after 6-9 months will usher in a turning point
in the first half of this year, a second tier city "the most expensive land" frequent, especially in the second tier city most crazy. In this Bona to upsurge, have a stronger ability of funds of listed companies and state enterprises have become the most expensive land harvester. This CITIC construction investment real estate group pointed out that the emergence of the calendar round of the king tide appears in a small period of high, 07 years, 09 years of the following year, there have been price adjustments.
but it is worth noting that in May the second city continued to show uneven market differentiation, the Yangtze River Delta is still hot, the most expensive land and other frequent, city circle is relatively cold, so China and Thailand Securities believes that in the next period of time, the Yangtze River Delta city group policy or will face tight.
Goldman Sachs Gao Hua expects the real estate industry will usher in the 6 to 9 months after the turning point. Wang Yi, the bank's analyst pointed out in the report, the national real estate development investment gradually slowing growth, is expected to gradually rise in the industry's leverage ratio, weak market demand will lead to the price of 2017 downward trend.
"real estate investment and new construction area growth slowdown, real estate investment needs to be further slowed down in order to curb supply. "The report said that due to the high base last year, the new housing area is expected in June this year, the data will fall. And in May the growth rate of new housing construction slowed to about 11%, the lowest in 2016. At present,
sales peaked has been basically confirmed that the future marginal turnover will continue to weaken, and to suppress the formation of new construction, investment, is expected in the second half of the new construction, investment growth will trend down, GF Securities (000776 market, buy) said.
"overall, although in 2016 the annual turnover growth has been basically established, but we have to emphasize the current high turnover, is expected in the second half of the turnover of new homes heat will gradually decline, the marginal transaction will continue to weaken. "
things are starting to change tomorrow, and even if it's not going to be better or worse, it's not going to be a bad thing.
state securities (600109 market, buy) believes that the three or four quarter need not be too pessimistic, there is still a good policy period: the first half of the industry's high growth rate in April, but we do not believe that the second half will be all the way down, a tax deductible mortgage interest, real estate development circulation tax simplification, industry resources to accelerate the integration of the policy can still be period, do not need to change the industry growth trend is too pessimistic, we expect the annual investment growth rate can be maintained at 5-7%, the sales area can also hit a new high this year, real estate is still on.
from a risk perspective, with the implementation of housing prices, sales greatly improved and the cost of financing, asset securitization and asset bubbles gradually promote regional regulation and control measures, the overall risk is still controllable, but the loose credit policy and resources to enhance the development of the party set relative to the threshold, the supply side reforms to open up the development of the industry space gradually.
CITIC Securities (600030 market, buy) judgment, the spring of 2016 after the flour in your bread of the land, the vast majority are still not a loss, but to the period of May was stretched, and the profit may be very limited. In essence, the king of the universal, reflecting the focus on the development and operation of a small number of cities in the city, but also more and more shows that the real estate business growth. Although some of the land does not make money, but is conducive to the expansion of business sales, but also to avoid the enterprise in some regional resources out of stock, we expect in 2016 the land market does not appear obvious cooling.
tomorrow may not be better, the situation is not bad. It is hard for us to expect the industry to be able to go beyond expectations. But we believe that taking more cautious, more generous dividends of real estate stocks, can reflect the value of its assets. CITIC Securities believes that.
but also some analysts believe that some positive changes are taking place. Can not be ignored by the industry to fill the inventory, the short-term replenishment of the high point of inventory is to go to the starting point of inventory.
China Merchants Securities (quotes 600999 buy) said in a report, the macro level, inflation will enter a short-term adjustment range, while at the same time, the long end of the interest rate to go on marginal are reduced, the macro level changes to the formation of a new product cycle support and the expected difference, this is one of them; secondly, early "risk appetite high chase real estate upstream, low preference chase downstream" time interval has passed, the real estate has been completed "awake" for others to do this "awkward" process.
recently became the most expensive land are frequent bearish arguments. China Merchants Securities report that the past every wave of the cycle is so, there is no such phenomenon, the cycle is a straight line (this is not the analysis of housing prices in the short term and the long run smoothly under the premise). Although the industry to the inventory, but we must not deny that the real estate business is to fill in the inventory, short-term replenishment of the high point is to go to the stock of the starting point.
liquidity sensitivity increase continued growth of credit mortgage loans concern inflection point
confirms the mortgage demand continues to maintain a stable pattern, in the first quarter after the release of the credit scale, market liquidity is expected to greatly enhance the sensitivity, after authorities stressed the need to abandon by adding leverage to maintain economic growth way, subtle tightening signal at the same time, the superposition of the recently listed company financing activities, on the one hand the Commission to limit the behavior of equity financing, housing prices and the issuance of corporate bonds interest rates began to rise, CSC believes that the current liquidity is the key index of the industry boom continues to maintain the length of the highly credit policy inflection point of concern.
of Thailand securities also have the same opinions, the believes that the long term, the housing prices narrowed, first-tier cities housing because of its scarcity will continue to remain high, and the three or four line of the city's housing price index depends on the loose monetary policy to maintain < / strong>. Gradually disappeared in the demographic dividend, regional differentiation is more significant in the background, the price is rendered more financial attributes, determined by the monetary environment, it is worth noting that the recent M2 growth slowed slightly, but the housing price index has continued to rise.
CITIC Securities said the impact of future sales there are four main factors:
1. mortgage loans: the macro situation determines the next period of time the mortgage interest rate is unlikely upward, but decision-making vigilance lever is too high, the mortgage interest rate is also very difficult to continue down sharply. Comprehensive view, we believe that the adequacy of the mortgage loan is to maintain the most critical force in the market, but not enough to drive prices continue to fast upward.
2. prices have risen: the current round of price increases is not small, and the continuation of the 5 quarter. 2012 three quarter from house prices continued to rise in the 7 quarter. We believe that this round of price increases may be more than 7 quarters of the duration, but the future price increases space limited.
3. restriction and other regulatory policies: local demand restrictions on the introduction of the frequency or slow down.
4. land market and corporate funding situation: part of the city land price is too high, corporate funds are not tight, may boost business to pursue profit rather than sales.
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