Back in Europe economic accounts clear why Britain still persist in wilfully and arbitrarily
wangyicaijing· 2016-06-23 14:37:53
in the end choose Baotuan heating, or to the stubborn lonely overseas, to face the unknown future?
6 month 23 days, Britain will hold a referendum in the EU in the future. In the 1975 referendum, the British man was faced with a similar dilemma: the ruling party split triggered a referendum, government and opposition are holding European stance, but the British people will choose to stay with a high support rate of 67%? British Prime Minister
Cameron launched the "off the European referendum" is like a gamble: Cameron that just about the economic problems of the referendum, economists in this debate on the whole life study proved the advantages and disadvantages of all the facts have been back in Europe, populism, of no great importance; globalization and political speculators are losers cocoon, will be submerged in the British Isles of the old system of revenge frenzy. However,
41 years, they are in a toddler in the European Economic Community (EEC) authorized higher, more closely to the European Union has become not only a unique entity, the process of integration of global regional integration in the world's largest trade group, is to maintain global stability indispensable diplomatic power. During the period of
in the referendum campaign, in order to avoid the negative impact and have silenced the EU institutions and EU countries are finally elite leaders in the recent outbreak, irresponsible stand out have accused Cameron's move, the more out of the earlier in Europe such as the UK back in Europe, taboo: the EU will face the danger of division. European Council president Donald Tuisk bluntly, the British de Europe may mean the end of the western political civilization.
on the other side of the Atlantic, the United Kingdom has a special relationship with Britain and the United States political allies are also closely concerned about the extraordinary significance of the referendum.
"Optima" wrong, this is not a zero sum game
so far, Optima deliberately confused the issue focus back to the EU in the UK immigration, to pay the annual membership fee, such as the UK out of the EU would be better, and back in Europe in Britain after Global trade can promote autonomy in four aspects. Since the
2004 EU enlargement in 10 years, about 1 million of Eastern European immigrants into the UK, an annual average of nearly 170 thousand people, much higher than previously estimated by the Blair government every year 13 thousand the number of immigrants.
on the one hand, the British public concern NHS (National Health Service) is the influx of immigrants occupied, on the other hand, especially in the north of England and the city once resort coastal city (in the EU system, the middle choice to more cost-effective for the residents of the holiday in Spain), migrants rob local work Voices of discontent.
they believe that the total amount of work in society is fixed, there is a zero sum game. Senior advisor to the British Institute of economic research, a former British government economic adviser
Preiss (VickyPryce) to describe the "First Financial Daily" reporter, this wrong idea "as the crowd watched a cake, taken a piece of cake, less and less. "
Preiss said, actually part of foreign immigrants took a very low level, the British people is in any case will not do, and in this field exists down wage price; but most into the UK are high skilled immigrants, these immigrants brought the economic benefits far exceed their take away.
need to pay attention to is that the United Kingdom is also facing the plight of the aging of the country, such as the lack of immigration, the United Kingdom will also fall into the trap of young labor.
in Britain every year to the European Union to pay the membership fee is to be the hardest hit by rumors. The British and Optima created the data show that the UK will give Brussels away 350 million pounds a week.
, in fact, the amount of money paid to the EU per week in the UK around 163 million pounds, about an average of per person per year in the UK, the European Union membership fee of about 130 pounds.
Preiss told reporters that, in fact, the EU budget accounts for only about 1.2% of the total UK public service spending, the proportion of insignificant.
, according to estimates, such as after the withdrawal of the EU to save the cost of about 18 billion pounds per year, perhaps the British government to spend more money to maintain the UK's agricultural sector and other.
Britain's entry into the EU is not to make the UK worse? It should be noted that, in the 60~70's of twentieth Century, when the European continent experienced a "golden age" and enjoyed a dividend to pursue the economy after the war, the British were called "the patient of Europe" ".
saw the continent's economic take-off in Britain by joining EEC, has obtained a trade and trade opportunities. In the UK after joining the EU economy is relatively good, the average growth rate of most of the time to Peter italy.
is the most authoritative British economic historian, University of Warwick (NickCrafts) Professor Khalaf Chee predicted, because the British can come into contact with the EU single market, and joined the EU improve Britain's overall competitiveness, directly pushed up the British economy ten percentage points.
finally, Optima declared after the British retreat back in Europe, not all control of the European Union, Britain in conjunction with the global trade more freely. Including the World Trade Organization (WTO) director general Azevedo, officials are warning back Optima this is nonsense and lies.
Azevedo warned that if the UK is to take off, all of its trade agreements under WTO need to be pushed down, or Britain would simply choose to turn itself into a tax exempt island. He also pointed out that after the EU, in addition to the British WTO membership should be re talk, the British consumers probably have to pay a huge price, estimated at 9 billion pounds a year.
Preiss told reporters that Norway or Switzerland, as well as the WTO model is not suitable for the UK, the most appropriate is the Canadian model. However, the Canadian model does not cover the huge service industry in the uk. Regardless of Norway or Switzerland, the jurisdiction of Britain are still a loose, not only need to pay into the single market, and on major issues without any substantive right to speak, why choose a worse than the current solution in the back to Europe?
"independence" of the United Kingdom will usher in a new beginning?
, chairman of the city of London government policy and Resources Committee of the package of ink Kay said "First Financial Daily" reporters, the referendum uncertainty has on the London real estate market impact.
the package of ink Kay said, "the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) report shows that last year announced to the British retreat European referendum for international in the UK office, industrial and retail demand is slowing steadily. "
" in London, 80% of RICS members said that the uncertainty surrounding the referendum hinders investment. "Bao said that the international Private Equity Investment Firm KKR also stressed that the withdrawal of the European Union for the British economy is" terrible ".
OECD, the British Ministry of finance, London School of Economics and Political Science, global economists are of the view that in the long term, a British exit will adversely affect the national income, the main reason is that trade barriers.
Preiss bluntly pointed out that both the British off Europe after reaching any mode of trade agreements, can make up for the current clamp from non trade barriers in the EU's welfare.
high degree of export-oriented economy, the degree of dependence on foreign trade in more than 50%, the foreign trade service industry dependence in 20%, and as a pillar industry, service industry in the UK in the long-term proportion of GDP accounted for more than 70%, in 2015 the services sector accounted for GDP of the UK accounted for 79.2%, while in the financial industry it is the core of British service industry.
who is determined to return to Europe and what people do?
as Optima back Senator Krly (JamesCleverly) said, "you can come up with smart people, rich people, even foreigners like Obama and MS Lagarde to persuasion, but for Optima back voters, but is some white noise. "
in the referendum held two days before returning, Optima wrote in the" Daily Telegraph "page:" this is full of opportunities in the world is waiting for the independent British, we will not mention the lost in the mists of time of the golden age of Great Britain, but look forward to our country can have a new beginning. "
the end of the western political civilization
Tusk bluntly, the British off Europe may mean that the end of the western political civilization.
estimates for EU officials in 2009 will withdraw from the EU to EU law mechanism too late to regret.
even in the EU, the rise of extreme right-wing parties in the core of the country has been in the resolution of the EU's further integration of the determination.
if the UK is out of Europe, the anti European forces might be drinking champagne. Tusk said, why the British champions back so dangerous? Because no one can predict the long term consequences, but he worried that a British exit may not only be the beginning of the disintegration of the European Union, but also the beginning of the disintegration of the western political civilization.
of the American political elite of the populist led off the European movement to maintain a close observation, and that if this theory can make radical to a British exit, I am afraid of populism and populist victory in the US presidential election also.
the British mainstream media described a "terrible" off after the European scene times: after the withdrawal from the EU, the mayor of London, Johnson became prime minister, and the Republican candidate Trump became president of the United States, but it is hard to imagine the upcoming summit and the embarrassing scenes.
in the economy, the British back in Europe will have different disaster and whole world, including the United States, Japan and the other BRIC countries and other economies, not to mention Ireland, Holland, Norway and Switzerland, these countries will bear the brunt, bear the negative spillover effect produced in the UK back in Europe's economy. The OECD (
OECD) in the latest release of the "global economic prospects" pointed out that by 2018, other European economies will suffer a significant impact, especially those with the British economy tied close countries, including the United States and the BRICs, at the same time, many non European economies will also face weaker demand from Europe the drop in output pressure.
OECD according to the comprehensive scenario calculation, the impact of the country's most affected countries are Ireland, Luxemburg, Holland, Switzerland and Norway. Countries with moderate impact include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Finland, France, Greece, Spain and Sweden. Countries with a slight impact on the
include Czech, Estonia, Italy, Hungary, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia and Slovenia. For the European economy, by 2018, its GDP will fall by about 1 percentage points, of which 2/5 is due to the financial market turmoil in the uk. Weakening demand from the
European economies will also have a negative impact on the rest of the world, such as Turkey and Russia, which will have a more serious impact.
in China, in response to the possibility of Britain from the European Union is more and more big, how do you respond "when in doubt, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, said Lu Kang, China in all aspects and some EU countries to exchange views on this issue, has repeatedly said, this is decided by the British people themselves. Of course, as far as China is concerned, our consistent position is that we are happy to see that European integration can continue to move forward.
in fact, including the Chinese business people, including Li Jiacheng, who recently expressed a view of the British back to europe. Some analysts believe that if Britain is back in Europe, will put downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate, there is worry, because Britain is pushing China in the central European free trade agreement negotiations, the Chinese awarded supporters of the positive status of market economy, Britain will weaken the Chinese Champions back to power in the European union. But to see is that the EU is a coalition of 28 countries, even on the basis of the assumptions of the 27 member states, China also has a wide range of cooperation opportunities in the eu.
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