Bao is most likely to increase in what time?
xinlangcaijing· 2016-07-06 01:14:18
/ Sina Finance opinion leaders column (WeChat public kopleader) columnist Jiang Bojing
I think, before fell to 17.8 yuan per share this risk is not the general assembly line, treasure holdings. Obviously, the lower the price, the lower the cost of its holdings. Even if it is down to 17.8 yuan per share under a little bit, it is overweight, it is also good for more than the disadvantages.
out of the industry, Vanke A in July 4th after the resumption of trading, opening that limit at 21.99 yuan, 26 billion 800 million yuan market value evaporated.
but, surprisingly, Vanke limit has no effect on the day's market almost. So, before that Vanke will affect the market's concerns now look is not necessary. Vanke
, before the resumption of July 4th after the limit, the media reported that, in the treasure to decline in price may continue to increase.
indeed, from a strategic perspective, the treasure can continue to increase its stake in the future of vanke. And from the financial perspective, it is said that Yao Zhenhua still holds more than 30 billion of the funds (I do not know). And, the investigation of the source of funding for the Department of treasure, but also the risk of controllable. So, Po can increase is very possible. However, I feel, can treasure holdings of the time, not now, not even one after the limit, but should be appropriate when Vanke "ashes" retail! And in addition to the treasure to want to increase its holdings, the other forces also have the intention to increase holdings. So, whether the continued holdings of treasure is still unknown. Vanke
retail "grey", this sentence may be too harsh. However, the biggest victims of Vanke palace fight, in fact is that retail investors, but no one cares about the palace fighting all the fodder.
then, why do I say that the treasure can be estimated to Vanke retail investors into the gray when it, for the following reasons.
first, holdings after the temporary limit, that is to save the treasure to save the retail retail, this necessary?
despite the fall on the Po can also have an impact, but the scale of the stock can not be a massive invasion of Vanke when the price is not so high. So, in a certain range, Vanke shares fell by the most loss is the largest retail.
2015 in December 18th, Vanke shares before the suspension limit, to close at 24.43 yuan. Vanke's hasty suspension, so many high buy retail caught by surprise. According to estimates, calculated according to 24.43 yuan per share before the suspension, the treasure can withstand three limit, which fell to 17.8 yuan per share.
I think, in the fall to 17.8 yuan per share of this risk line before the treasure can be less than the general assembly. obviously, the lower the lower the cost, the lower the cost. Even if it is down to 17.8 yuan per share under a little bit, it is overweight, it is also good for more than the disadvantages.
so, treasure can be saved in time to save retail or waiting for the opportunity to cut Chinese and Chinese? I think it's the latter.
second, the financial pressure is too large, the money will be spent on the blade.
although there are rumors that Yao Zhenhua hands still hold more than 30 billion of the funds, but it is still a problem.
and from the media reports, we can know that the treasure can be under pressure to bear a variety of financial.
6 in the news that the "treasure" under the company of Shenzhen logistics industry group Limited by Share Ltd is offering a 5 billion yuan exchange non-public issuance of corporate bonds, shall not exceed three years, the use of funds to repay bank loans and supplement working capital. It is clear that the treasure can be in the financing, reserve ammunition. But the treasure can move, is not optimistic about the market.
since this is the case, I would like to treasure can not continue to overweight. Funds, to play the biggest role in the blade. Unless, someone first holdings.
third, if the market for the better, Vanke performance is not good to say.
no matter for what reason, anyway, Vanke resumption of the day, the market performance is good. July 4th, A shares rose nearly 2%, approaching 3000 points.
although, A shares may also struggle at 3000 points. However, if Vanke affected the market, the possibility of Vanke worse, and now the market of Vanke Vanke blind, the pressure is not small? This is really maybe.
if the market does not work, Vanke will be in accordance with the expected decline. Conversely, if the future of the market for the better situation, Vanke fell to what extent it is not easy to say. If the line is still far from the risk of treasure, treasure there is a need to increase it?
above three points, I think it is not easy to increase the reason for the holdings of treasure.
below I say, want to increase the holdings is not only able to treasure. Vanke
shares fell after the resumption of the world. But Vanke's sales ability, enough to prove that Vanke will not always hovering in the low. The day before, the "2016 Chinese CLY published the first half of the real estate enterprise sales TOP100" list, Vanke sales in the first half of 2016 the amount of 187 billion 770 million yuan, housing prices in other way ahead. So treasure can want to increase in Vanke's stock holdings, others will have this idea.
first of all, Huarun's acquisition of the hands of the hands of the national team 9.5% Vanke shares of the idea for a long time. Huarun wants to restore its largest shareholder status, the acquisition is the only way. To permit the company as the representative of the national team, the 9.5% shares held by the company, is the best acquisition of the object. Before, Huarun's acquisition of the national team shares of the rumors ambiguous, it should not be accidental.
second, does not rule out the Huarun A fell to a certain extent after the acquisition of the shares of Vanke, the premise is that the treasure has been unable to support. Before, there have been rumors that Huarun want to buy the shares of Vanke Vanke, and get the approval of the SASAC, but soon denied. However, if the treasure can really do not want to or do not have the ability to play it, then this may not be.
third, Vanke management and its allies will not increase. According to publicly available information, Vanke management through the broker "and" win win "two owned 7.12% of the shares of investment management plan, and Vanke management team also directly hold some of the shares of vanke. If they are in the stock price declines when Vanke holdings, it is not without this possible. But once Wang Shi Ampang is how, at present also can make nothing of it. Right, and Shenzhen sasac.
fourth, there will be no new barbarians to enter. This, it's hard to say.
more than four points, is to increase the resistance of the Po can encounter.
Vanke Twelfth Meeting of the board of directors, the current board of directors and the board of directors of the board of directors and the board of directors of the board of directors of the board of directors and the board of supervisors can be removed, Po can lose a board. Then, after the resumption of diplomatic, how can the treasure? It wants to increase its holdings, others would like, even if only it would like to increase, it is estimated to wait until Vanke retail "into gray"! This is not just the right turn.
(the author of this article: the author of the column, the first World Conference on the Internet, the best news commentary award winner, iDoNews signed a column author.)