The impact of floods on grain production, although it can really shake CPI?

CPI flood disaster base monetary policy

huaerjiejianwen· 2016-07-07 19:04:57

The flood disaster

in the middle and lower Yangtze River area and Jianghuai, southwest Eastern and other places has caused market vigilance, effects of flooding on agricultural products is huge, may through the price transmission effect significantly push up CPI.

but the State Securities believes that due to a number of factors for the effective iron flood role in pushing up inflation, such as storage policy hedge crops decreased correlation between monetary policy and inflation, CPI food weight reduction, especially vegetables, short growth cycle and high base under the pork consumption off-season to balance the supply side contraction the impact on inflation.

it is expected that the overall impact of the flood disaster is not, in the 3 quarter, inflation will continue down, the 4 quarter to stabilize and moderate recovery, the whole year does not change the trend of V.

first round of floods in 1998 and more comparable: affected more similar, and in a relatively deflationary environment; 1998 GDP and CPI double down; and when the economy of flood in 2010 and CPI dual uplink; this time to the economic downturn, CPI downward and inflation pressure is not.

second, floods the main channel of inflation: the market supply and demand and the cost of end passive promotion, which impact on food, vegetables and livestock are prominent.

1, from the market supply and demand relations, with food as an example, the flood caused a substantial reduction of grain yield, such as the 1998 and 2010 summer grain output were apparent decline, vegetable harvest decline, and the rise of livestock mortality and later the spread of the epidemic, will cause the supply side down, thereby decreasing prices, thereby pushing up CPI.

2, from the cost side, the floods disrupt public transportation line, grain, vegetables and other transportation costs to improve the regional balance of supply and demand driven, it is difficult to coordinate, and then affect the price performance.

third, is expected to affect the prices of agricultural products for flood mainly exist uncertainties as staple food and vegetables, pork prices due to the base effect and consumption off-season, the increase is still mainly to narrow. From 98 years of experience, summer grain output may cause prices to rise greatly, but put the reservoir to some extent can hedge the overall food prices is not affected.

in the end, the flood upward pressure on inflation, but CPI is influenced by multiple factors, combined with the current macro background, we determine the factors (he put storage, decline, and money supply relationship between the weight of food decreased to a certain extent) on the iron impact of flood on the supply side, so that inflation expectations may be difficult to translate into actual inflation does not change significantly, the annual inflation trend.

1, content_img_p" to boost inflation, is a pig, sow Bulan slow, pork prices fluctuate, the price of vegetables rose; two is the flood waterlogging disaster area key grain and vegetables accounted for relatively high inflation pressure, composition. The factors of

2 and inhibit the inflation, is a effective buffer storage policies put food production impact on food supplies; two although the current monetary policy is relatively stable, but the correlation between money supply in recent years, with the decrease of CPI, the high growth of the money supply on inflation pushed up also weakened; and in 1998 the growth rate of the money supply is low in 2010, the tightening of monetary policy; three CPI food weight reduction, the deduction of the weight of food alcohol and tobacco in about 20%, and the CPI reference object on the downstream consumer side, the price elasticity is upstream of convergence; four is the vegetables into the short growth cycle, effectively hedge the decline is affecting supply; five consumption of pork into the off-season, high the base of pork prices rose gradually narrowed.

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