Qiao Liang: the South China Sea arbitration day does not fall down
qiaoliang· 2016-07-14 09:30:43
data figure: WZ 10 flight and 8 low altitude sea straight
original title: the South China Sea the sky is not falling
"Nanhai arbitration" farce has been announced, the results were not expected to Chinese one-sided disadvantage. In this case, we do not need to care about it, the day does not fall down.
however, since the "results" came out, or you can calculate the account. On the surface, the United States and its little brother, with the so-called "arbitration" is not legally binding, with a black Chinese, forcing Chinese only in the "four noes" policy (not involved, do not admit, do not accept, do not perform) to deal with. This is undoubtedly controlled by the United States western public opinion, the China portrayed in defiance of the international community "and" outrageous "image, made a mistake. But think about it, to Chinese, but time is a shame, and we in the field of international disputes in the actual score is far greater than the loss.
say, light is referred to arbitration in the Nansha islands, as already in my actual control, and has been expanded to the reefs and islands, which completely changed the strategic situation of the South Sea China. This is more important than anything else in the current world of the law of the jungle, the first law of international relations. Not to mention China sovereignty over the South China Sea and the islands in the history of claims, according to law, to the rational, but in the international discourse manipulation, our soft power is less than the United States, the United States can only face "power than axiom" discourse of repression, temporarily embarrassed embarrassing, so affordable while the loss of reputation, a reckoning down value.
but it's only a small account. For the Chinese people, the real calculation, is another big account. Count this account, you win in account how many times, finally may be worth.
2010, U.S. President Barack Obama and Secretary of state Hilary Clinton's high-profile announcement: the United States will return to asia. Since then, the United States made a nightmare of the Chinese pressure over.
2011 the second half of the year, Japan and South Korea in Northeast Asia FTA negotiations will be the occasion of the United States Japan fruits fall off when ripe, invited Tokyo governor Shintaro Ishihara visited the United States, the Americans hate 20 years of Japanese right-wing politicians for if the guest. Between Americans and the Japanese talk about what people can know is can make nothing of it, but, since the United States back on this, immediately announced a high profile from Tokyo have to pay the purchase of the Diaoyu Islands from private hands, which opened the curtain of the Diaoyu Islands Dispute, the abrupt prospect of trilateral FTA Zone, the pace of internationalization of the RMB also nature will be slowed down. This one.
2012, grew up in the United States President Aquino of Philippines, with a less dramatic but meaningful action to kick off his Chinese girlfriend - China began his "war": he first announced the Chinese territory of Huangyan island to Philippines after all, and declared to the South China Sea and changed its name to the West Philippines sea. After more to send its soldiers and the Army Party, between the two countries in the occupied China territorial waters issue echoed. These challenges should be the reason for China's strong fight back. But the result is to have the positive progress of ASEAN 10+3 (China) like a raging fire in the economic cooperation in the rapid cooling, the integration of Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia "East Asia FTA" vision, so as to promote the TPP completely vanish like soap bubbles, the United States (trans Pacific Partnership Agreement), again leading the Asia Pacific economy, paving the way. This second. September
2015, President Pu Jinhui force resistance, by Beijing to participate in the victory of the grand parade of the machine, and President Xi Jinping signed the China ROK FTA agreement". Economic relations between China and South Korea is expected to be more on the floor. At the beginning of this year, the United States by good times don't last long, North Korea called the hydrogen bomb tests and satellite launch, the successful use of Korean public panic, "Sade Korea agreed to the deployment of anti missile system in its territory, it will certainly lead to strong opposition from China government and people, the consequences are apparent: China ROK FTA TPP to resolve in jeopardy. The intention will be aborted Chinese invisible by bilateral trade. This third.
the above account a Bisuan down, we did not win a pen, Japan and South Korea, the Philippines, in addition to the Andouble regime by the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands successfully forced the Japanese society to complete the constitution right, close to the target, but with the deterioration of the relationship between Chinese, make this country are losers. And the real winner has one, that is, America.
this is the problem that every Chinese should really pay attention to. Compared to the "Hague arbitration" this is no legally binding "judgment" on China's injury, the United States to China laid the one and another trap, it can be called truly substantive damage.
so, why should the United States do so (motivation)? How does the United States do this (means)?
, in fact, see through, everything is not complicated.
motivation, there are two reasons for the United States to do so: one is the "Thucydides trap" worry, from China reserves first in the world, after the GDP second in the world, the United States put the China lock for the "most likely to challenge the hegemony of the competitors, will want to suppress the potential head Chinese and then quickly; two after the financial crisis, the United States did all he could to help themselves, so far failed to climb out of recession. The U.S. real economy has serious hollowing, so it can only rely on continuous QE and manufacturing all kinds of trouble to others, the deterioration of other regions and countries, economic situation and investment environment, to create a "bottom" effect, highlights the American economic situation is relatively good, in order to attract international capital return to the U.S., the United States opened another the "strong dollar" period, the U.S. economy out of prosperity.
to achieve this goal, the Americans in the hands of the effective tool There is not much left. circumstances, only to regain the geopolitical weapon, by giving a regional and national manufacturing geopolitical trouble, for their own economic turnaround.
European debt crisis, the crisis in Ukraine, the Middle East Color Revolution and the rise of ISIS, the tide of refugees, etc.. Sino Japanese Diaoyu Islands, China and the Philippines Huangyan Island, China and the South China Sea maritime rights and interests of the relevant countries, coupled with the just staged the South China Sea arbitration case farce, it is true. All of the above problems, such as the United States is not satisfactory, reaching the international capital from the crisis area "Qiaoshanzhenhu" out, out of the United States intentions, but managed to give all of the above countries created a geopolitical crisis torn, these countries and regions of the original geopolitical pattern, a British exit is an example of the latest the.
now, the United States by two aircraft carrier guard on the occasion, intends to let the China also appear in the South China Sea, a relentless war battle, will be temporary, is nothing more than to do a show for global investors, so they thought, strong military pressure in the United States, Chinese economic situation Chinese will continue downward, the investment environment will be worse, therefore, see who dare to stay in the capital or invest in the Chinese and the surrounding area? To form a capital panic withdrawal tide, the global situation in a messy situation, only the relative safety of the American road situation, so far has failed to support the dollar rate hike.
so, not only to engage in a miserable opponent, but also to the filling of their own, the American big account is really fine enough, enough refined, enough!
see through this, we are on the so-called "South China Sea arbitration", there is nothing to worry about? But in the United States on China this big chess, China to wipe his face on a black. The soldiers of the border, but also in a threatening manner, does not want a war with China through a showdown. Americans know better than anyone, and countries such China, could not solve the problem of war, because it must lose lose outcome, so that viewers will acts -- EU, Russia, Japan, India these countries and this account, the United States in a war in World War II, because when the first match and large gains the country, who are more aware than. Therefore, the "to do well with the Chinese war tonight" (Harris language) posture, is to intimidate opponents, to avoid war. So, why don't we dance with the wolf, with the United States to play a world wave actor show? In this kind of joint mouth, the West has a saying that the saying goes, who blink of an eye. The United States can not afford to lose, China also can not afford to lose, then the test is both strategic guidance and strategy level.
and I pay more attention to the, the contest will continue the game, hope to Chinese after a war, comprehend more geopolitical skills, learn to trouble trouble, to bring problems to the problem of promoters, in one fell swoop the initiative, to win the final game.
2016 late July 12th