Chinese investment in second tier cities real estate opportunity to do?

Investment timing second line Chinese

shangyejiandiwang· 2016-04-21 17:03:18

second tier cities in the property market seems to usher in the "spring"

Beijing and other cities in the first tier cities have been controlled, the second tier cities housing prices gradually warming. According to media reports, in March 2016, first-line shrinking supply of urban homestead in turnover fell significantly, north of Guangzhou Shenzhen total launched land planning construction area of 1.33 million square meters, 45% lower than the ring, representing a decrease of 18%. On the contrary, the second tier cities property market seems to usher in the spring". March 2016, 36 second tier cities nationwide residential land area increased by 14%, turnover increased by 4%, 52% increase in land leasing. Its one month premium rate of 40%, a record high in recent years. < while the second tier cities land transactions warming significantly, but the inter city differentiation but also further intensified, provincial and regional central cities rapidly warming, such as Nanjing, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Chengdu and other cities has gradually become a hot housing prices fierce contention, prices were also generally good. There are a lot of people believe that, in view of the future is expected to be optimistic, and prices are still at low prices, and now is the time to invest in the second tier cities property market. < p > however, there are people spit tank said, the cities of the property market bubble has been big enough, after the purchase, investment went to second tier cities speculation, this is not the bubble leads to second tier cities?? Now in the second tier cities to buy a real bargain? < p > support, "bubble" itself has become assets < these problems relates to our analysis of the real estate "bubble", the first where there is a bubble, and the second is the so-called bubble and investment houses are contradictory.

first from the macro view, the country has about 664 cities (2014 data), the first tier four plus 36 tier cities a total of 40 cities, accounting for less than 1/10 of the total number of the country. This less than 1/10 of the city has occupied the country's largest administrative resources, economic resources, educational resources, human resources, while 9 of the big cities accounted for 1/5 of the country's total GDP. If the city itself is seen as a real estate, then a second tier cities is China's current quality assets. This "quality" is the natural advantage of the tilt of the policy, the formation of administrative power, which is obviously very attractive investment. Because of this, a second tier cities contributed to the total profit of China's housing prices over 80%.

so, the so-called second tier cities in the existence of the property market bubble argument itself is a lack of consideration. Greenspan said, only when the bubble burst, people will know that it is a bubble. In other words, there is no bubble burst bubble is not a bubble. When there is always a kind of strength in the support of the bubble, the bubble itself has become an asset. Class= img_box "

map for the major cities housing price income ratio.

people often like to use real income to prove the existence of the bubble. According to statistics, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other places of house prices than up to 27 and 20.8, Beijing is 18.1, and in fact, people's intuitive feelings far beyond the statistical data. Beijing's house price is equivalent to 18 times the annual income of the family? Far more than it.

is concerned about the bubble when we ignore what?

this is a lot of people think that the existence of a second tier bubble. But they ignore an important issue, that is, a second tier cities housing prices have basic support. This "Fundamentals" does not depend on per capita income, but the average income of people who buy a house. < p > a conservative estimate, if the purchase crowd income levels are all average value of two times, then for the same price level, calculated with the average income of the entire population of housing price to income ratio, it is necessary to than with sales people average income meter of housing price to income ratio at least twice as. In addition, over the past decade, China's economic growth rate is at least more than twice of the other countries, which means per capita GDP grew by at least two times, under other conditions equal and index of house prices in China should also reach, twice of the other countries. If the superposition of these two effects, it means that China's house price income ratio should be divided by four at least, and other indicators of the country are comparable.

therefore, even if the Chinese people to 40 years of savings to buy a suite, while the Americans only need 10 years, but there is still no real estate bubble in china. Because those who want more than 40 years to buy a house to buy a house, the real estate buyers, those who only need 10 years of income will be able to buy real estate. In other words, the "intimate relationship" with the real estate is a Chinese class, and this class has a considerable number of enough to support a second tier cities in the real estate, but the following three cities without their support, the situation is more worrying.

for example: assuming that there are two exactly the same country, what are the same, including the current prices and average income per capita - two countries, prices are 500 thousand per capita income of 50 thousand yuan per year. The only difference is that the average per capita income growth rate, a country's annual growth of 10%, the other country does not grow. Clearly, the two countries are the same price income ratio is the same, are 10, that is, the price of a house is equivalent to ten years of a person's income. But the problem is that, in a few years, the income growth of the country's per capita income is 50 thousand, and that revenue growth of 10% per year per capita income has doubled, reaching 10 in the event of a year. If house prices still keep to 10, which means that the income growth of the country's housing prices will be 500 thousand, while the income growth of the country will rise to 1 million. < if people expect to a country after prices will rise to 100 million, that today 50 million house probably becomes too cheap, not too expensive, not robbed of light just strange. Class= "img_box" id= "

"content_img_p" in the major cities, 100 universal buy many square meters of housing?

now, we put the above text in the "state" for "city", the truth is exactly the same. Urban per capita income growth, the faster the GDP growth rate in the city, in the case of price earnings ratio unchanged, prices should grow faster than other regions. In addition, the average income of more than second tier cities, people can buy a house in second tier cities, the income level is higher than the average. Both superposition, the second tier cities housing prices of course is a long-term positive. Coupled with the first tier cities to purchase, a large number of investment to second tier cities, prices will naturally rise rapidly.

is now the best time to invest in the second line it? Actually, I can tell you that the best time has been missed. Truly good layout of the investors, should be in the first tier cities before the price rose to start the layout of the second tier, buy cheap. Remember, first tier cities is always rise not fall, but due to the city of a gleam of striking, so is also China's "face project", high prices easily aroused public indignation, so the authorities often for first-line cities in the introduction of real estate policy. Whenever this time, is the second line bullish time.