Developers paries pushed up the first half of the land
xinlangcaijing· 2016-08-04 06:30:49
developers paries push up fund first half price
asset bubbles appeared chain risks exist in the first half of
2016, "the most expensive land has become the land market keywords. Transaction price, turnover, the premium rate from the beginning of January a refresh, then a Monday to refresh, from a Monday to refresh the day, and finally even a few times a day to break the record just released. Industry asset bubbles appear, experts advise, which is brewing a huge market risk.
300 in the first half of the city total land premium super trillion
China Index Research Institute data show that since the two quarter, Shanghai, Nanjing, Suzhou, Hefei, the Yangtze River Delta city hot frequency the most expensive land, second tier city land price gains, part of the city land market risk overheating.
in the first half of this year, the country's 300 cities floor price and premium rate continued to rise, the total land premium amounted to 10818 yuan, an increase of 34%. Among them, more than half of the 40 large and medium cities in the country increased, the first ten of the city's land transfer payments were doubled.
floor price, the first half of this year, the national 300 City turnover floor price is 1659 yuan / square meters, up 35%; which residential land auction floor price of 2972 yuan / square meters, an increase of 55%. Premium rate, the first half of 2016, the country's 300 urban land average premium rate of 41%, compared with the same period last year increased by 31%; of which the average premium rate of residential land 53%, compared with the same period last year increased by 41%.
Centaline data also show that in the first half of 2016, the country's 50 major cities over 10 billion yuan of land transfer reached 3, respectively, in Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin. More than 3 billion yuan to reach 51, a single case of more than 1 billion yuan of high total price of land has more than 200 cases. The premium rate, land premium rate of more than 89 of the 100% cases, an increase of 45 times the premium rate of more than 144 of the 50% cases, an increase of 8.5 times.
worth mentioning is that the land market is difficult to reduce the heat, but serious differentiation. According to the China Index Research Institute data show that first half of the nation's land leasing top twenty City turnover total turnover reached 691 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 55%, accounting for the proportion of the turnover of more than 60%, the country's 50 largest city land premium of up to 965 billion 590 million yuan, an increase of 38.5%, accounting for the proportion of the turnover of more than 90%.
China Index Research Institute believes that the first-tier cities in the stock of land scarce in the background, the brand enterprises to fight in the second city key take, take the most expensive land soil frequent feast, city, region, sector price records have been repeatedly refresh, and promote the overall rise in premium.
Centaline market director Zhang Dawei believes that the main reason for the current round of market and fuse the outbreak is the release of credit, the residents of the leverage increases, thus forming a bubble. The marketing director of Asian high Guo Yi also believes that the relaxation of real estate regulation in the case, the amount of money flooding, part of the weak economic base and boost the industry ineffective in the three or four line of the city, had to rely on the real estate regulation policy stimulus, on the regional market short-term positive pull.
developers turn dominate reminders up premium
it is worth noting that land prices soaring not only driven by policy and credit. Insiders pointed out that developers paries by making up the old Wang Xindi Wang is an important cause of rising prices. Beijing Sun King River new cases of
in October 2015 to shoot, the turnover of the floor price of up to 53 thousand and 800 yuan / square meters, it will take COFCO real estate in 2013 to 48 thousand yuan / square meter won the Sun River before the release of the most expensive land. At the same time, poly first open jointly won the Beijing camp just the most expensive land is directly to mid 2014 won the region the most expensive land Hengda "long sigh of relief", previously, Hengda floor price cost up to 50 thousand yuan / square meters.
insiders said above, the shoot Xindi Wang bring price expectations, make its surrounding projects more price increases confidence. "Like Shanghai Sijing the most expensive land after the birth, the most excited than in the surrounding developers in the sale of items in Xiamen, China World Trade Center, Longhu, the housing prices have to raise prices for promotional gimmick. "
" in addition to developers, developers are "we occasionally" own zuozhuang". In June 30th this year, up to 193% of the premium Xiangyu estate competing in Shanghai Fengxian District Nanqiao a homestead, the total price of 2 billion 120 million yuan, the floor price of 26 thousand and 300 yuan / square meters; in 1 months ago, the price of real estate is Xiangyu in the same area to total 2 billion 150 million yuan, the floor price of 22 thousand and 600 yuan / square meters with a block the homestead, a month to achieve "by itself".
again in August 2015, sunshine city to the floor price of 49236 yuan / square meter won the Shanghai Yangpu District Pingliang community plots, refresh the company had in November 2014 hit the highest floor price record plate.
consulting with the policy research director Zhang Hongwei said, in the same area after another take, refresh the floor price record is undoubtedly a good way to reduce housing prices to take risks. "In the first batch of the first batch of real estate capital preservation sales, and even a loss of sales, followed by several houses is the real profit stage. Appreciation of the land itself and the rise in house prices are behind the king a few of the houses sold into the market to lay the foundation. To a certain extent, after the long project development cycle, the sale of property in the back of the property can be a hedge against the situation, the overall realization of the real estate development and the development of the value of the king. "
Yi Chinese CEO Ding Zuyu said, get high housing prices is also in a way the existence of the capital market. "Listed housing prices in the financial statements of the asset is calculated by the development of the commercial housing inventory to the market price assessment. Therefore, although the premium is still high, but if you do not get to the market, housing prices in the capital market, the story can not tell. Housing prices do not have land reserves, equivalent to no ammunition on the battlefield of the soldiers, so it can only be hard to work with financial institutions to take the land, the higher the higher the premium. "The second half of
policy tightening risk land bubble appeared
recently, the central first proposed to curb asset bubbles, is interpreted as the industry to prove safety of real estate suction gold black hole.
CRIC Research Center Yang Kewei said, from the first half of China economic performance, GDP growth rate of 6.7% higher than the 6.5% target, but is mostly due to the first half of the real estate force, and asset bubbles in the real estate industry focus.
Yang Kewei said that early in April this year, A shares of listed companies announced on 2015 earnings, many companies last year, net profit of less than 15 million yuan, part of the listed companies, even as much as a year of profit to buy a house north of Guangzhou Shenzhen; on the contrary, in a year first-tier cities housing prices equivalent to the value-added part of working career a year of profit. Although there are exaggerated, but also fully reflects the current economic reality.
in the case of monetary policy continues to loose, the funds did not 'take off', but to enter the real estate industry. "Yang Kewei said, the real estate industry the effect of making the rich multiplied, this point M1, M2 growth continued to expand and the" price scissors "private investment growth decline is remarkable.
Zhang Dawei said that in the real assets in the market, often experience phenomenon can be observed, in the absence of significant changes in the fundamentals of the situation, asset prices will continue to rise, resulting in asset bubbles. And from the capital market, the main asset bubble has the stock market and the real estate market, the stock market into a bear market in 2015, the current second tier cities housing prices soared, the basic can be defined as asset bubbles.
in July 21st this year, the central bank released the loan data show that the first half of the national new loans 7 trillion and 530 billion yuan, while the individual home buyers loans increased by 2 trillion and 360 billion yuan, the proportion reached 31%. It is worth mentioning that the first half of the amount of new housing loans is almost equivalent to the amount of new loans last year.
Zhang Dawei said that in 2015 the relevant policies or "through the acceleration of migrant workers to the public, to expand the effective demand", and in 2016 economic work conference from the "accelerated" into a "orderly"".
Yang Kewei believes that the part of the hot city, the signal has been very clear policy changes, the real estate market to leverage is also imperative. With the fall of specific measures following "inhibition of asset bubbles", will undoubtedly have a great impact on the real estate market, especially the hot part of the second city, the market will face the amount of stagflation.
as of July 27th, the year to grab the most active 50 of housing prices to take to 622 billion 175 million yuan, the total construction area of 96 million 220 thousand square meters, the average cost of 6466 yuan per square meter. In the same period in 2015, the average cost of its land to take only 4261 yuan per square meter, the average cost of enterprises to take up to 51.8%, the price increased risk.
Zhang Dawei also pointed out that, as of late June, the Beijing history of the total land management land floor price more than 30 thousand yuan of the total land 59 cases, the total land premium of 191 billion 938 million yuan, as of June 16, 2016, these plots sales of only 22 billion 480 million yuan. This means that if in accordance with the current market of normal sales profits, this part of the total value of the most expensive land is expected to be 380 billion yuan. 22 billion 400 million yuan of sales, the current point of view is only equivalent to one year of the cost of capital, which is brewing a huge market risk.