Experienced three rounds of a substantial depreciation of the RMB exchange rate will be how?
Windzixun· 2016-08-10 15:53:11
2015 year 8.11 exchange reform has been nearly one year. During the U.S. dollar against offshore RMB exchange rate fell by 7.3%, the U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate fell by 6.5%. CFETS RMB exchange rate index has fallen by 6.16% since this year. After three rounds of substantial depreciation of the RMB exchange rate depreciation although continue to be under pressure, but still in a controlled state.
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financial information terminal Hongkong Wande news agency
Author: Li Minzheng
8 9 July safe released data show that in the two quarter of 2016, foreign investors on China's domestic financial institutions net inflow of direct investment 1 billion 826 million yuan; domestic financial institutions to foreign direct investment net outflow of 37 billion 918 million yuan.
from 2015 RMB exchange rate reform, by the end of August 9th, 6.2148 dollar offshore RMB from the beginning, has dropped to 6.6691, the cumulative decline of 7.3% down 4543 basis points. U.S. dollar against the RMB exchange rate, but also from the beginning of the 6.2530, fell to 6.6624, the cumulative decline of 4094 basis points, a decline of 6.5%.
over the same period the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar, also fell from 6.6594 to 6.1162, down 5432 basis points, a decline of 8.9%.
also in addition to August 5th, CFETS RMB exchange rate index has fallen by 6.16%.
after the exchange rate reform through three years
2015 devaluation of RMB exchange rate reform before 10 years, the RMB against the U.S. dollar has achieved 33% appreciation. But the experience of the three rounds of large-scale devaluation of the exchange rate reform, changing the trend of the RMB exchange rate.
2015 in August 11th, the central bank announced that the RMB against the U.S. dollar in the middle of a substantial reduction of 1136 basis points to 6.2298, followed by the three day of the cumulative total of RMB against the U.S. dollar fell nearly 3000 basis points, fell directly into the 6.4 range.
2015 by the end of 2016 to the beginning of the year, the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by over 900 basis points, a decline of over 1%.
2016 began in April, the Fed rate hike is expected to heat up, the United Kingdom de Europe and a series of events. The RMB devaluation of more than 2400 basis points in the two and a half months later. Class= img_box "
"content_img_p" and this is also consistent with the RMB exchange rate trend of the RMB exchange rate.
which, during the month of July 2015 -9 months, the RMB average exchange rate sharply from 6.1167 to 6.3691, down 2524 basis points; during the November 2015 -2016 year in January, the RMB exchange rate fell from 6.3666 to 6.5527 per month, down 1861 basis points; during the month of April 2016 -7 yuan, the monthly average foreign exchange rates dropped from 6.4762 to 6.6774, down 2008 basis points.
controlled devaluation of the RMB since June this year, the dollar in the onshore RMB exchange rate, the cumulative increase of more than 100 basis points is 11, down more than 100 basis points is 16 times; the dollar offshore renminbi, the cumulative increase of more than 100 basis points is 5, down more than 100 points 8 times. Over the same period the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar, 100 basis points higher than 8 times, down more than 100 basis points appeared 15 times.
but 7 months since late signs were found in the bank, the rise of strong offshore renminbi. Among them offshore RMB in July 20th, 29, respectively, rose 316, 233 basis points.
China Merchants Securities chief macroeconomic analyst Xie Yaxuan think, 7 began in mid March, the RMB exchange rate from weak to strong, and foreign exchange reserves decline did not increase overall, less than the market expected, the limited central bank intervention in the foreign exchange market, foreign exchange market demand the situation has improved.
for the market to Chinese central bank to maintain a stable exchange rate speculation, OCBC Bank economist Xie Dongming said, the central bank China shows in the near future to hold signs of 6.7 yuan, the market sentiment is improving; the market is to re evaluate their views. More overseas investors are expected to be allocated to the Chinese bond market, which will be conducive to the balance of the second half of the capital flows and the RMB exchange rate.
Standard Chartered announced the latest Standard Chartered yuan global index, from 1968 in May to 1933 points in June, a monthly decline of 1.8%. This is the eighth decline in the past 9 months, but the decline has slowed. The index has fallen nearly 20% since the exchange rate reform in August 2015, the same period in the onshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by 6.5%.
UBS report noted that in view of the continued pressure on the capital outflow, the dollar is likely to further appreciation, the future devaluation of the pressure may increase. However, it is expected that the decision may not allow the yuan against the U.S. dollar devaluation of more than 6.8, so as to better manage the exchange rate expectations, and to avoid the major trading partners to avoid criticism.
but quoted the British "Financial Times" reported that in the current exchange rate formation mechanism, the RMB exchange rate is still lack of adequate flexibility. The closing price and currency basket combination is not a permanent solution, the future China central bank still needs to continue to promote the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism.
Shenwan Hong also issued a research report that in the background of the economic downturn, the RMB against a basket of currencies mid will face greater downward pressure; short-term devaluation pressures have eased in the long term, the devaluation of the renminbi and foreign reserves decline trend has not changed, is expected to the end of this year early next year, the RMB exchange rate and foreign reserve the maximum pressure of .
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