Vanke shares soared in the crisis?
xinlangcaijing· 2016-09-23 03:34:20
/ sina finance Hongkong station Peng Lin
in the global stock market ups and downs of the hundred years of history, a very active mergers and acquisitions, especially the big blue chip stock outbreak Sniper War period, often indicates that after one or two years a stock market crash or economic crisis." 170000 shares soared with the tide of capital crisis
again China against the real estate industry, a second tier city housing prices continued to rise, the stock market and real estate sector repeatedly upside. Over the years the stock still more for Huarun, blue chip Vanke, Hengda treasure to multi equity battle and even pull limit, many investors have been considered to be a big surprise since the market plummeted last year, excited.
but this excitement may not last too long, the global market experience tells us many times, a mergers and acquisitions activity, especially the outbreak of blue chip equity Sniper War period, often indicates that one or two years after a stock market crash or economic crisis.
is a stock market crash in 2019? Before the fall of Lehman brothers in 2007
, with the global financial tsunami is coming, global mergers and acquisitions activity heyday, the year before the six months of global mergers and acquisitions amounted to a record $2 trillion and 200 billion, followed by a serious bubble burst.
in the financial crisis on 2000 - a cycle of the technology bubble era Eve is also the peak time of the acquisition of shares, a single "stunning merger" is put forward by AOL $160 billion to acquire giant time warner. Harvard Business School professor and expert Rod Skoro Pugh (Matthew Rhodes-Kropf) acquisition of the study showed that there were 5 mergers and acquisitions in the past 125 years, after each wave of mergers and acquisitions, stock prices will appear.
in addition to the above main from the United States detonated crisis, the Hongkong market also has a similar experience. Since the end of the 1960s acquisition of Hongkong active, the number of securities exchange has established by Li Jiacheng, as the representative of the Chinese Sun Hung Kai Guo "estate Wuhu" also the rapid rise in the acquisition. The peak is 1972 "to drink milk" incident, the British Chi Group for giant milk control of the company to issue six shares of land (market value of more than HK $700) for a milk company (shares worth about HK $60) price, "strong buy". Then Hongkong quickly ushered in the 73 stock market crash, the Hang Seng index plunged 90%, which fell 33% in one day, has maintained the world's highest one-day record.
in fact, since last year M&A (merger and acquisition) is the active global phenomenon, in 2015 the global M&A totaled US $4 trillion and 600 billion, many American economists have pointed out that this is likely to trigger a new round of economic crisis, such as Goldman many investment banks and other institutions more directly predict that the next crisis likely in 2019 after the arrival of.
buy buy buy by money hard to
in many people especially in the minds of investors, corporate pride buy buy buy, shares, mergers and acquisitions activity often means that the market for investment opportunities increase, industry restructuring, and why would indicate the economic crisis and the stock market crash?
from the global market in the past experience point of view, the logic is not difficult to explain. First of all, increase corporate sniper large blue chip behavior, often means that some enterprises and even the whole industry encountered bottlenecks, lack of development strategy, no longer own inner strength, this situation is bigger, the shadow of the crisis of course is strong.
Chinese the current real estate industry as a whole is entering a transition period, although this year's sales pick up, but the enterprise gross margin decline, net profit growth pressure. For example, is currently actively deploying the Chinese shares of China Vanke, Hengda, in year-on-year revenue growth of 12.6% of the cases, the net profit was down 78.6%. Vanke itself is the increase in revenue of nearly half of the cases, the net profit increased by only less than 4.5%.
on real estate to make money, in which there is a reason for the proportion of land prices are generally more and more large, and even more expensive than bread flour". Coupled with many cities due to rapid heating up the property market, continued to be possible to re implement the purchase of the policy. This makes the national housing are facing a difficult choice: if you do not step up purchases, the purchase may be encountered in the future, but the real recovery of cash after the purchase of land, the land may be more expensive than prices, substantial arbitrage losses. No matter how cautious investment, it is difficult to avoid the problem of low returns. Therefore, through the acquisition of equity to acquire the land resources of the target enterprise, it has become the main solution to the current plight of housing prices to deal with.
loose money encourage risky behavior of
in mergers and acquisitions activity second hidden crisis in this period usually liquidity is quite loose, lending is very easy, encouraging financial leverage increases, more prone to Tunxiang type of "leverage", hostile takeovers, increasing the risk of market fluctuations. The recent investment bank JP Morgan to Richard Lee to PCCW leveraged Hk Telephone Company, to predict the intention of Vanke Hengda, Richard Lee was a substantial debt swallowed the large telecoms company, eventually because of the stock market fell, PCCW stock price from one hundred yuan fell to only HK $1, lost 96%, became a famous tragedy the 2000 stock market crash technology stocks.
according to China's Hengda daily news, the first half of the group's net debt ratio has reached 430%, total liabilities of 50 million Hong Kong dollar approaching. JP Morgan estimated that in the future once the full purchase of Vanke, Hengda need to borrow at least 240 billion Hong Kong dollars. At the end of last year, one of the first major shareholder of the Boland department, also repeated use of financial leverage, more will hold Vanke shares pledge financing, and continue to borrow, July Vanke first resumption of fall, can be repeated to treasure close to "ruin", the new major shareholder of the past year is startling step by step.
however, this is not all in the current environment is not surprising, because the high risk behavior is gradually becoming a common choice in the industry. Today, China's housing prices have plenty of cash on hand, the report released last month, the one hundred housing prices with cash totaling 1 trillion and 300 billion yuan. At the same time their debt leverage is also rising, the ratings given from this year, Moodie international rating agencies such as S & P's point of view, rising financial risks of the housing prices are generally lower China rating, including Vanke, Hengda, green, Wanda, "jumbo", is the first time since the past four years.
third latent crisis, the market is a large medium and small investors speculation mentality is more serious, the birth of a stock bubble, which in the recent stock price is now more than 5% of the crash has been available to see. With the shareholder equity dispute continuous shot holdings, small shareholders have flocked into the room to grab chips, Vanke shares in the short term low than last year rose more than 60%, but at the same time just to disclose the profit is not so prominent, obviously is that Vanke A shares have been in quite a degree of the bubble. For a deep stake in the battle, in the enterprise, once the unfavorable price news, will inevitably lead to the collapse of the stock.
acquired company marred
the last crisis, is the goal of the enterprise often become a sniper fear about the future, 80s hundreds of case number of statistical and review show that only about 30% of the companies can maintain the previous policy and mode of operation in the post acquisition. In the case of hostile takeover, the company's prospects for a more huge risk, and even nearly half of the company was acquired by malicious eventually no longer exist.
this point the author in the last column "hostile takeover before Vanke why so fragile" was discussed, was acquired by the difficulties faced by enterprises including new shareholder divestment or integration, bear substantial debt pressure in the acquisition, as well as new shareholders and older employees in the management idea to run etc..
is not hard to predict, in easing the financial side, the lack of investment environment, Vanke equity for several events, frequently encountered even earlier placards "of the enterprise, is not independent, accidental events. They are like a corner of the sea ice is a new wave of mergers and acquisitions tide harbinger, perhaps the next round of a crash.
review of the past history of the crisis, many analysts will be attributed to the origin of the crisis before the liquidity easing of the big environment. But as mentioned above, we should see that the real cause of the crisis is not more money, but a variety of market participants because of the money and thus relaxed vigilance to make a variety of high risk behavior. Especially for enterprises and institutions and individual investors in the stock market and leverage, with speculation speculation, is the biggest risk in the capital and the lack of self-discipline and cross industry regulatory environment, this kind of hidden crisis behavior is worth see the wind on the long, regulators and investors are more vigilant.
(the author: graduated from Peking University Students in Hong Kong, for many years, personal experience Kurong international financial center turmoil.)
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