The central bank adviser: government income housing prices accounted for about 60% of the supply problem is more prominent
xinlangcaijing· 2016-10-31 18:10:06
10 month 30 days, to attend the 2016 World Conference and the first block chain Internet plus manufacturing innovation development forum and delivered a keynote speech at the people's Bank of Chinese adviser professor Sheng Songcheng. He said that the supply of China real estate market problems are more prominent, the current real estate regulation in our country should pay attention to the combination of supply and demand control regulation, regulation and regulation of the combination of short-term long-term, and deal with the relationship between real estate and economic development. On the basis of the existing demand control, to further improve the supply control measures to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
following the keynote speech:
the effect of China's real estate regulation has been less than satisfactory, prices almost unilateral rise, it seems that the more control, the higher the price. On the first tier cities and some second tier cities, we believe that one of the main reasons for poor control effect is not the real estate supply and demand regulation and control. In October this year, the number of domestic prices rose faster than the hot city once again launched a real estate regulation and control policy. From the intensive regulation and control policy can be felt to high prices, asset bubbles and the future of China's economic concerns. Overall, the demand for regulation and control is mainly focused on the short-term, supply regulation is more focused on long-term, and the supply of regulation and control to help stabilize the public expectations. In the case of market differentiation, in the classification policy, the policies applied by the city under the background of real estate regulation in China need to pay attention to the combination of supply and demand, long-term and short-term regulation control combination, and handle the relationship between real estate market and economic development.
, a consistency of China's real estate regulation to control the main demand of
in China's real estate cycle inflection point and the real estate regulation policy is high, reflects the characteristics of China's real estate regulation to short-term demand regulation: when the price is too high, through the demand to cool the market in real estate; the downturn or shrinking period, is also used to promote the needs of the regulation. For example, in 2005 the introduction of a series of demand control measures (including the abolition of housing loan interest rate preferential policies, increase the proportion of loans Shoufu etc.), the growth rate of real estate sales have dropped significantly; the real estate market in 2008, 2012 and upward, the recent round of rising prices (the beginning of the end of 2014), all departments and relax on demand control.
recently, the hot city once again launched the real estate regulation and control policy. In the case of Beijing, published in September 30th, "a number of measures" to promote the real estate market stable and healthy development of the proposed efforts to increase the supply of residential land, rationally adjust the structure of land supply, accelerating the owner occupied housing land supply, to strengthen the control of land, limited housing "transactions, to further improve the differentiated the housing credit policy and other measures. Following the Shanghai Shanghai nine, and in October 8th announced the six measures, strict implementation of the purchase, credit limit and other real estate market regulation and control policies to ensure stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
through the comparison of several first-tier cities real estate regulation deal recently (as shown in Table 1), we can see that the local real estate regulatory initiatives, both demand regulation, also supply regulation, but still need to control (such as credit limit, the purchase of the policy). And, more specific measures to regulate and control measures can be implemented, and the supply side of the regulatory measures are relatively general, principled, and it is difficult to implement in the short term. Because demand control directly through the rigid standard inhibition of trading volume, the effect is almost immediate, but it is not a "cure" method. And, China's real estate supply problems are more prominent." non real estate development enterprises, real estate intermediary agencies engaged in down payment loans, self financing, self bridge loans and guarantees, set up the pool of funds with capital and other OTC financial business. Increase the supply of land for housing efforts to improve commodity housing land proportion of small and medium size, the Center City suburb of not less than 70%, not less than 60%; promote low-cost housing and public rental housing merger operation; strict implementation of commodity housing projects built with less than 5% affordable housing policy, industrial industrial land supporting the construction of rental housing. The service life of facilities, the construction area of the total construction area of the ratio increased from 7% to less than 15%; improve the common property protection of housing construction, supply and supply management; accelerate the transformation of old urban areas and villages.
two, the real estate market supply issues more prominent
China's real estate market supply side issues more prominent, reflects the formation of differentiation in a second tier city and the three or four line of the city, and part of a second tier city, housing prices rose too fast. This year, the first tier cities housing prices continued to grow more than three percentage points higher than the same period last year. From the city housing price index, in September 2016, one or two, three lines of urban residential prices rose 26.72%, respectively, 14.87% and 6.79%. Scarcity of supply is the most obvious reason for the rising prices of hot cities.
first of all, the supply of residential land and new residential. State-owned construction land supply in recent years showed a downward trend year by year, which real estate (20.250, 1.16, 6.08%) (000736, stock it) land area decreased more. 2013-2015, the proportion of the national real estate land for land area were 27.4%, 24.8% and 22.5% (Figure 2, figure 3). Even if the supply reduction is due to the excess supply, the structural problems in the supply of residential land and newly built houses are still serious. According to the relevant aspects of monitoring, in 16 hot cities, there are 8 urban residential land supply less than the same period last year. Xiamen reduced by 50.2%, Shanghai reduced by 47.5%, 41.9% reduction in Guangzhou, Beijing reduced by 30.8%, 21.1% reduction in Suzhou, 21% in Ji'nan and 13% in Nanjing, in Wuxi and 9.1% in. In the 16 hot cities, there are 6 cities in commercial housing approved pre-sale area decreased. Beijing fell 32%, Wuxi fell 27.2%, Xiamen fell 23.6%, Shenzhen fell 21.4%, Hefei fell 15.9%, Fuzhou fell by 14%. From the point of view of land price monitoring, the first tier cities of residential land, the growth rate is sustained, significantly higher than other purposes.
second, the potential supply of real estate is difficult to meet the needs of the residents of real estate. As of 2016 9 at the end of the month, the national real estate development loans 7 trillion and 40 billion yuan, an increase of 7.56%, 0.41 percentage points lower than the growth rate at the end of last month, 9.09 percentage points lower than last year; since June last year, the overall tends to fall, reflecting the real estate supply potential decline. Purchase loan balance of 17 trillion and 930 billion yuan, an increase of 33.36%, the growth rate 0.82 percentage points higher than the end of last month, 8.63 percentage points higher than the previous year, reflecting the purchase demand is still rising. In the first nine months of this year, the purchase of new personal loans of about 3 trillion and 600 billion yuan, an increase of about 1 trillion and 800 billion yuan.
third, the demand side of the number of control although the visible decline in turnover, the price growth rate is slowing, but does not change the public's expectations of rising prices in the first tier cities. Directly from the perspective of the demand for quantity control, and even possible to strengthen the expectations of rising house prices. In July this year, the national household sector long-term loans increased by 477 billion 300 million yuan, an increase of 198 billion 400 million yuan, accounting for 102.96% of all loans to the real economy (463 billion 600 million yuan). Although this situation has eased in the near future, but in September the new individual housing loans still account for 39% of the incremental loans. Residents to increase the intensity of the intensity of the lever is unprecedented. 9 at the end of 2016, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Zhejiang, the growth rate of Beijing, Shanghai real estate loans rose respectively 33.80%, 32.18%, 24.62%, 21.15% and 18.24%, respectively, at the end of last month increased by 0.77, 0.54, 0.59, 2.06 and 0.30 percentage points. 5 province (city) real estate loans accounted for 42.50% of the balance of the national real estate loans, 0.07 percentage points higher than the end of last month. The increase in supply is more conducive to stable expectations, should pay attention to the importance of expectations management of the real estate market stable and healthy development, but the current real estate regulation measures for the supply is still relatively abstract and general.
three, supply regulation and control of the significance of
compared to the demand for regulation, supply control is conducive to improving the level of China's real estate market from a more basic level. The mode of land capitalization in China and the reality of all kinds of resources focused on the big cities, it means that we need to seek ways from the perspective of supply.
is reasonable to provide financing for the development of China's economy. In the process of China's economic development, land capitalization plays an important role in the development of China's economic development. Local governments are competing to promote local economic growth, the need for a certain government financial support. On the one hand, the government to form low-cost transfer of land to industrial enterprises, attract business investment and stimulating employment, and promote the local economy and the growth of government revenue, in this process, with the economic development and land value-added; on the other hand, as a residential land to the elements in the form of auction to the housing transfer for real estate developers, real estate business development into commercial real estate for the residents to purchase, the government can generally be obtained from a large number of land revenue.
according to the latest estimates, in the composition of house prices, the government accounts for about 60% of housing prices. Research shows that, as an important part of government revenue, the proportion of gold are close to 50% land many local government revenue, and even some city accounted for more than 60% (Zhou Bin and Du two, 2010). According to the Ministry of land and resources statistics, in 2015 to sell state-owned construction land 221 thousand and 400 hectares, the contract price of 2 trillion and 980 billion yuan, an decrease of 20.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Among them, the tender, auction, listing transferring land area of 204 thousand and 400 hectares, accounting for 92.3% of the total area of the sale; tender, auction, listing transfer contract price 2 trillion and 860 billion yuan, accounting for 96% of the total price of the transfer contract.
to land finance as the representative of the land capitalization model, while promoting economic development, but also to a certain extent, the local government's short-term behavior to provide incentives. High land prices increase the local government through the land auction revenue, so the local government has the motivation to obtain more land revenue through the maintenance of the scarcity of land supply. Under this premise, to increase the supply of land will be more difficult. And high land prices will increase the cost of urban development, the local government's dependence on real estate is also likely to further increase, is not conducive to attracting talent, nurturing new economic growth point, thereby weakening the competitiveness of cities. In the short term government revenue "relationship, namely the government rent tax substitution from real estate rental income is higher than other industries, from tax revenue is low, have adverse effects on the real economy of one-sided development of real estate.
as a response, should consider the reform of land auction system. The use right of state-owned land auction system in our country, the high bidder, will keep rising expectations in the future real estate prices, land prices are more likely to be raised, "the most expensive land are frequent. In contrast, Shanghai license plate auction system is worth in the design of the system of land use rights auction in china. It requires the bid into the effective price range, and the effective price range is based on the lowest price at a certain time point to determine, on the basis of this, according to the price time priority rules to determine the successful tenderer. Obviously, in such an auction system, the lowest bidder and the lowest bidder can not win the bid. This reference to the auction rules in the land auction, will change the situation of "the most expensive land are frequent, more conducive to price stability and value discovery.
two is to optimize the allocation of resources. In some hot cities soaring prices, in short supply at the same time, China's real estate industry is also faced with the arduous task of inventory, a second tier hot cities and three or four lines of urban differentiation is very obvious. August, 70 large and medium cities in new commercial housing price changes, the highest increase of 44.3%, the lowest decline of 3.8%.
China's quality education, health care resources are often more concentrated in large cities, a steady stream of population into Beijing, Shanghai and other domestic cities. In recent years, the main city school district housing phenomenon continues to heat up, it is the public is willing to pay a higher price of quality education is a manifestation of higher prices. Studies have estimated that, the school district housing rental rate of return on average 5% lower than non school district housing, for large-sized apartment residential rental rate up to 19%, and the discount fluctuation, the influence of Education Department of public school enrollment policy impact of the.
therefore, in the long run, to enhance the quality of education, health care and other resources in a wider range, but also help to solve the problems faced by the real estate market in china.
three is to improve the land use efficiency, increase the supply of urban residential land. From the international comparison and the use of land in the first tier cities of China, it is possible to increase the supply of housing land in the first tier cities. In fact, the high land price and the current local governments face GDP assessment indicators have a direct link. In order to meet the GDP requirement of the assessment, the region needs as much as possible the development of industrial investment, thus affecting the allocation of land resources, resulting in China's first-tier cities of the industrial land is much higher than the proportion of other international city. Such land use layout for the first tier cities in China, it is not necessarily reasonable.
Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen three cities accounted for 22%, 32% and 36%, respectively, much higher than New York (3.9%) and Tokyo (5.1%). New York residential land accounted for 44% of the proportion of urban construction land, Tokyo, this proportion is as high as 73%, while China's Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the proportion was only 28%, 29% and 26%.
on the one hand, to change the single pursuit of GDP performance appraisal approach, to correct the one-sided pursuit of economic growth and current interests, more attention to the livelihood of the people, the environment and long-term interests of resources, optimize the allocation of resources. On the other hand, in the incremental supply of land space is limited, the imbalance of supply and demand, the stock of land (urban and rural construction land within the scope of the idle unused and underutilized land, unreasonable land utilization, with potential) in the development of the city should be fully used. According to estimates, Shanghai central city into a piece of industrial land transformation space for the 90 million Party, the transformation of the old residential area of about 60 million square. Shanghai within the scope of the housing construction area of up to 160 million square, equivalent to 8 years of supply (in 2015 the whole of Shanghai city residential sales area of about 20 million square). In the process of moving the stock of land, the government should play a leading role in the coordination of the advantages, ease the shortage of supply, optimize the development of the city.
to improve the efficiency of land use, increase the supply of urban residential land, not only from the supply side to ease the price of hot cities in China is too high, the growth rate too fast, but also help to stabilize the public's expectations.
indeed, many countries in the process of rate reached 75% before there are real estate prices far higher than the economic growth rate, rental index looks far more than "reasonable range" phenomenon than in the town. We believe that this phenomenon is based on the economic development of the future is expected to bring about the future of income. In China through land capitalization to promote local economic development in the process of government co-ordination and a lot of work, such as investment, city planning, to consider the industrial layout, the living area from the global distribution of the region, at the same time a large number of infrastructure construction work, China economic potential has been released the value of the real estate area, also has been improved, and enhance the value of real estate is precisely from the expected future income. According to preliminary estimates, in the three quarter of 2016 the contribution rate of real estate to economic growth in about 8%. Real estate is in Chinese economic growth plays a very important role, but if the real estate investment expansion tends to the extrusion of other and stifle entrepreneurship, is unfavorable for Chinese economic transformation and healthy development. Therefore, it should also focus on the medium and long term, from the land and the supply of the resources, as well as institutional improvements.
overall, China's current real estate regulation should focus on the combination of demand and supply regulation, short-term regulation and long-term regulation, and to deal with the relationship between real estate and economic development. At the same time for the market differentiation situation, implement more targeted policies, and even take "one policy way. On the one hand, pay close attention to first-tier cities and some second tier city inventory decline, increase housing supply; on the other hand, the three or four lines of real estate inventory larger city, according to local market conditions, to take effective measures to resolve the inventory of real estate. On the basis of the existing demand control, to further improve the supply and control measures, taking into account both the short and long term, to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.