Yuan is the worst asset in the next ten years?
kanshangjie· 2016-10-31 20:03:50
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"perview_img_p content_img_p" in the future we should also continue to hold RMB assets? This is not alarmist. Since October, the price of the RMB in the international market has been all the way. Offshore RMB devaluation of nearly 1.5% in October, if calculated according to the devaluation of this month, the annual depreciation rate of more than 15%. Investors are not easy to bring their hard-earned money, stocks, financial, always on tenterhooks a year down is not easy to have a point of return results because the exchange rate problem and cast to the wind.
is saying that the exchange rate is a butcher's knife. The benefits of investment in fixed assets are often due to changes in exchange rates. There are several pocket money money for a pound more friends a few years ago, the British real estate investment of several buildings, the short period of time, prices rose about 16%. When is secretly happy, know what the British people come up with "exit" yaoezi, resulting in the pound slumped, has dropped to the lowest value since 1980s. Afterwards, in the UK property market to make money, but in the currencies lost almost. A go, equal to nothing to do in vain. Someone saw
pounds of the warning, immediately thought of the renminbi in the future, there seems to be a point of intense darkness without light. So, people put forward a practical question: whether the RMB will become the next ten years the most worthless assets? The
foundation is mainly the following: 30 years, the average annual decline in the purchasing power of RMB 10%, the future of this figure is difficult to continue to increase. In recent years, China's annual CPI rose nearly 2%, one-year deposit rate of 1.5%, China has actually been a negative interest rate. The official media are in the public campaign, said the devaluation of the renminbi is very normal, after the devaluation of the channel policy that will continue to open...... These words, and I don't say it is alarmist, incited, at least should also be fair to say that this is a short-sighted and belong to the lack of knowledge.
why do you say that? Mainly it confused the two concepts of the RMB and RMB assets. Devaluation of the RMB, the devaluation of the RMB assets, which is actually a sentence forever correct nonsense. This sentence is based on the conditions for the establishment of the international market, but if you invest, where the consumer is in Chinese RMB devaluation of assets, you actually feel it, because everything around you because of increasing devaluation of the exchange rate are synchronous. Like two cars with the same speed, you look past the window, the people in the opposite side of the car seems to be sitting in the same.
step back and say, if you have other currency assets, whether it can guarantee there will be a better return than RMB? In fact, it is difficult to say. Is one of the biggest reasons, if you want a substantial asset value, other currency markets did not provide a Hanlaobaoshou channel. On the contrary, in countries and regions with free exchange rate and financial freedom, the technical content of the investment is much higher than that in China. This means a lot of opportunities for high income, but also a lot of investment traps. If you are in the domestic investment by three points seven unsuspectingly, strength points of luck, then, to open foreign currency account doesn't make your own investment returns become higher. This is the truth that can be thought of in common sense." to tell the truth, Chinese domestic investors, there are a few successful not because of a few years ago, the real estate investment hit the jackpot? A few are based on the operation skills and market analysis to engage in stocks, futures, funds of these high technology content and the way to get a successful investment? The latter is probably only accounted for 5% of the total number of less than it. Most of the investors in this rough level, listen to the argument behind the RMB assets, came to Hongkong, the United States, the European market, finally you are the big fish eat the opportunity is not reduced. This does not change because of your account, but because your level of investment is very low.
so, we see that now there are a lot of Chinese people to sell real estate, to the United States, Canada and other places to invest in investment, what? Or real estate! This is called a low level. In fact, real estate holding costs are high, the investment cycle is slow, unless it is a real estate business, the general international investors are not likely to be the first choice for real estate. Higher mobility investment, is the most flexible and most able to obtain the means of speculation.
but what do you do with your foreign currency account? The foreign private high threshold, ordinary people can not play. But this moment to you to cast such as stocks, you ask how much of the industry and the financial statements of listed companies? Foreign bull market is not a policy of cattle, and to make money is not necessarily a bull market, bear cattle have to earn. As the exchange rate change in fact you have to earn the same, the key is to see if you bet up or bet down. In short play tricks a lot, but if you still stay in the country that a backward concept, it is likely not to turn. You have 99% of the potential is still looking for an agency to help you find the investment agent, the rate of return is very low, it is not worth. In a word, the early years you should learn financial knowledge, will not be so blind.
therefore, if not that level, do not embrace porcelain live. RMB assets are not as bad as some people say. The key is to understand the reason behind the devaluation. According to
statistics, the international market is 760 billion yuan RMB, accounted for only 1% of global foreign exchange reserves is insufficient, the next few years, foreign central banks and sovereign funds hold RMB assets share will increase by 1% per year rate, according to this trend, the next few years, the RMB in the global foreign exchange reserves, soon in excess of the yen and the British pound, becoming the third largest reserve currency. from the point of view of the trend of large organizations, the trend is precisely holding the RMB rather than selling the RMB, of course, the main form of RMB bonds. this is very worthy of our reference to an investment oriented.
in fact, from the actual performance of foreign financial institutions, according to a certain proportion of the assets held in the basic is an international consensus. Economics professor Prasad
of the Cornell University (Eswar S. Prasad) recently in "the appreciation of the currency," a book about the rise of RMB internationalization of the RMB, although it will bring the fluctuation of exchange rate in the short term, but all this is certainly expected in the Chinese official, so there will be corresponding measures. The more crucial thing is that allows the RMB to enter the international basket of currencies, in fact, is tantamount to the international currency in the sequence, put into the RMB this Troy trojan".
in the future, this is the role of the Troy Trojan to establish the fact that the RMB to become the international currency, the transformation of the international financial system, to further strengthen China's financial discourse. For China, this is definitely not a loss of business. In the future, more and more into the mainstream of the international currency of the RMB assets should not be abandoned, but there are further holdings of value. However, the short-term shock obviously can not hide. Therefore, I give a compromise proposal, foreign currency (Euro, dollar) and RMB assets are in reasonable proportion, rational allocation of personal investment allocation, study and improve their level of financial position. So, between two and a variety of currency assets, your investment will be more at ease.
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