Today, the legend of the property market "big kill" finally came

Property market legend real estate crisis

liuxiaobo· 2016-11-02 07:21:38

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" today (November 1st) at noon, came a big news: CDS to the!

CDS, the Chinese name is "credit default swap". If you use a simple sentence to explain, in fact, the equivalent of a loan insurance. With this product, when the default event occurs, both the creditors and the debtor's pressure will be greatly reduced, you can pass on to the sale of CDS institutions.

according to the "dynamic China inter-bank market dealers association issued" this afternoon, the situation is this:

2016 in October 31st, the association of financial derivatives Specialized Committee approved by 14 institutions record to become credit risk mitigant core dealer. On the same day, the inter-bank market total industrial and commercial bank, agricultural bank, bank, construction bank, China bank, Minsheng Bank, industrial bank, Zhejiang bank, Bank of Shanghai, debt credit enhancement and other 10 institutions to carry out the 15 credit default swaps, the total notional principal 300 million yuan. Trading reference entities involved in oil and natural gas, electricity, water, coal, telecommunications, food, aviation and other industries. Trading period ranging from one year to two years.

" previously, Caixin, also carried a report on this news, we can be informed, including Chinese Unicom, the Sinopec's first batch of CDS standard in bonds. Clearly, the first batch of transactions of the reference entity which does not contain real estate loans, or the developer's bond.

in September this year, when the CDS in the China trial after the news came out, since the media has just CDS interpreted as "weapons" betting against the housing market, and combined with the negative effects of CDS year in the US subprime mortgage crisis in the China that launched CDS will have the following meanings:

1, which means that the property market has seen the top banks need through CDS mortgage risk out. After

2, CDS traded for big money betting against the housing market provides the starting point, they can buy CDS, then suppress the market profit.

in short, CDS was once rendered as the end of the property market in China, the bank's plot.

in fact, CDS is a kind of insurance, in loans, debt and other defaults to the creditors to compensate. With this tool support, even in the economic downturn, we have the courage to lend money, instead of Wujin purse cause liquidity shortages. So, this is a tool to stimulate the economy.

if the CDS can take tens of trillions of mortgage risk passed out, that is absolutely sensational. the reason is very simple, there is no one institution has the ability to bear the insurance liability for such a large scale of China's mortgage. CDS as for the relationship between

and prices, nor unilateral. Just like "T+0" or "futures" relationship with A shares, it seems can be said to be "up to help up, down or down". In addition, the level of CDS prices, which means that the debt risk of a judge. If it is widely believed that the asset price is high, the price of CDS will surge, so as to bring a warning to the market.

in addition, CDS is not only affect the property market, but also affect the bond market, which has become an important indicator of the macro economy. CDS China's

business has just started, with experimental. In the prevention of asset bubbles and financial risks in 2016 and 2017, the scale of this business will not be too large, the impact will not be too large. so, exaggerated CDS influence, is completely unnecessary.

in today's housing market there is a big news worthy of attention:

according to the "First Financial Daily" and other media reports, the Ministry of land and resources control and Monitoring Division official said, it is necessary to prevent the real estate market rapidly rising to increase social instability, also want to risk in the financial system to prevent the real estate market quickly brought down the.

I think "to prevent the rapid decline in the real estate market brought about by the financial system risk" should indeed cause enough attention. After this round of real estate policy of the bull market started, especially since June this year, the market entered the stage of fire cooking oil. Control until the National Day golden week is a comprehensive introduction, should draw hands slightly late, but the subsequent regulatory upgrades, from the local government quickly rose to the central bank, the CBRC, CSRC level. such a short period of time in the multi shot, a number of policy superposition type regulation, it is likely to induce financial risks, which had to be.

in addition, the report also revealed a group of important data: 1-9

months of this year, the national real estate land supply 71 thousand hectares, down 7.8%. Points of view, the supply of residential land 47 thousand and 900 hectares, down 8.4% year on year; commercial use to supply 23 thousand and 200 hectares, down 6.6%.

reported that: in 2016 the supply of real estate land for third consecutive years may decline, or even hit a new low since 2010. The supply of land in recent years is:

2015 national real estate land supply 120 thousand hectares;

2014 national real estate land supply 151 thousand hectares;

2013 national real estate land supply 203 thousand and 200 hectares;

2012 national real estate land supply 165 thousand and 600 hectares;

2011 national real estate land supply is 169 thousand and 100 ha;

2010 national real estate land supply 154 thousand and 200 hectares;

2009 national real estate land supply 109 thousand and 100 hectares;

so that in the future the emergence of local shortage of housing, it is possible to. This group of macro data, you can follow the warning issued in the three quarterly bulletin issued by each other. Vanke

said, in the 14 hot spots of the city they monitor in the inventory of new homes available for sale (has achieved sales license unsold area) dropped further to 98 million square meters, the lowest level since the end of 2011, to the period of only 5.7 months of inventory.

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