The property market in Hongkong earthquake, the four giants spared
meirijingjixinwen· 2016-11-07 14:17:05
on Friday (November 4th), the Hongkong SAR government resorted to against property speculation wind big Shazhao: non household population in Hongkong buy a house in Hongkong, and the household population in Hongkong buy second sets of residential "ad valorem stamp tax", a maximum of 8.5% from the previous, suddenly increased to 15%.
this policy is mainly targeted at the mainland to buy a house in Hongkong funds. Hongkong official data show that in September the Hongkong property market, a total of 250 non local buyers to trade, reaching the highest value in 14 months, of which the mainland buyers accounted for 31%. At the same time, the buyer stamp tax revenue of HK $506 million, 26% higher than the average of the last 4 months.
photograph: Xu Cong Jun / Oriental IC
the stamp tax adjustment will increase the purchase cost of the mainland. For example, the mainland to buy a 10 million yuan Hong Kong dollars of residential, at least to pay HK $3 million tax, up to HK $5 million (depending on the duration of the property held by the seller)! Although
Hongkong prices yet appeared loose, but Hongkong developers today have suffered in the real estate fortune Li Jiacheng, Guo Desheng, Li Zhaoji, Zheng Yutong four people were spared. Today (November 7th) is the first trading day after the implementation of the new deal, Hongkong real estate stocks appeared collective diving, as of press time, Guo Bingjiang and Guo Binglian (later Guo Desheng) under the Sun Hung Kai (00016.HK) fell 8.93%, hit a 4 month low; Li Jiacheng's long real estate (01113.HK) fell 7.94%; late Zheng Yutong's New World Development (00017.HK) fell 8.72%; Li Zhaoji's Henderson (00012.HK) fell 6.45%. High prices
developers to suspend sales of
in the face of increasingly unbearable, the Hongkong government suddenly announced measures, the property market observers said the prices and trading volume is expected to soon fell, because buyers and sellers will suspend operations.
11 on the 4 day of the conference, Hongkong Secretary for transport and Housing Bureau Zhang Bingliang said, investors active again in the market, investors 8-9 month rose 50% mom in September rose to 2600 in September a record high, trading port of Hongkong permanent residents have more than one property in 2300, when the rise buildings have a damaging effect on the social risk.
Liang Zhenying said that the past by stamp tax to curb three non occupied demand, reduce the success from speculation, foreign investment demand, but demand is still dominate the market." famous property market "in 2012 2013, the government introduced the double spicy trick". Source: WeChat public "white read financial"
"bubble" is set in advance the wall, Hongkong introduced the new deal to curb the overheated real estate market, the government improve the sale of residential property tax, unified tax rate adjusted to 15% turnover, but the Hongkong residents of the first time buyers can use the original tax is not affected.
said Zhang Bingliang for the unified tax 15% is high, the government did research on the new tax rate, recent Hongkong housing prices is mainly composed of small and medium-sized apartment layout driven, hoped to use the unified tax rate of small and medium sized units trading overheating inhibition.
, in fact, before the price stamp tax increase, the cost of housing transaction tax in Hongkong has been very high. (including the mainland buyers to date):
1. "ad valorem stamp tax" 8.5%
2. "buyers stamp duty" 15%
3. "additional stamp duty" (the seller holds a property of 6 months or less, the tax rate is 20%; 6 15% months ~12 months; 12 ~36 months) for 10%
comprehensive calculation, the new tax rate before the introduction of mainland buyers stamp duty at 23.5%~43.5%; after the upgrade from the price of the stamp tax to 15%. Mainland buyers stamp tax rate increased to 30%~50%. That is to say, a set of 10 million Hong Kong dollars of real estate, the maximum tax rate may reach half of the price, that is HK $5 million, the minimum is HK $3 million! Specific scope of payment, depending on the duration of the seller's property.
such a high tax burden, which is not a small blow to the mainland buyers. Hongkong government data show that in September the Hongkong property market for non local Buyers transactions a total of 250 cases, reaching the highest value in 14 months, of which the mainland buyers accounted for 31%. At the same time, the buyer stamp tax revenue of HK $506 million, 26% higher than the average of the last 4 months.
according to the "South China Morning Post" news, because of government measures, many developers have suspended sales in Hongkong, including Sun Hung Kai, Henderson real estate and new world development. SHKP stopped in He Wentian's new luxury real estate "Tianzhu" sales arrangement, because of the need to modify the price lists, new sales date will be arranged.
Citigroup expects prices will fall 15%
Hongkong property estimates Department released the latest data show that in September this year, the price index was 295.5 points, up 2.78%. Statistics show that since April this year, property prices have been rising for 6 consecutive months, or up to 8.9%, has returned to the level of November last year, with a record high of 306.1 in September last year, only 3.5%.
"(the Hongkong Central Plains city leading index to reflect the change trend of Hongkong real estate market prices soared
) contributed to the Hongkong people's discontent, according to Demographia, according to the median, a Hongkong house requires 19 years of family income this, the vast majority of people out of the scope of purchase. Demographia last year found that in the body of the 11 year survey of large cities in the real estate market, the burden of housing prices in Hongkong is the biggest burden. The long-term relations with Hongkong and the mainland of China Securities analyst Huang Lichong told the daily economic news (micro signal:
nbdnews) reporter said that Hongkong and the mainland first-tier cities, home prices are too high, difficult, young people lost hope of rising, so the public to curb property speculation and investment demand for the new behavior of welcome.
for the government on the property market suddenly hot, international bank analysts are given prices expected to turn down. Bloomberg said, Citi's Ken Yeung 7, analysts said in the report, the Hongkong tax increase of cited expectations, or marked the end of the current round of market prices is expected to rise, from now until the end of 2017 will be down 15%. With low volume, prices fell, is expected in the next 12 months, the Hongkong real estate stocks will be weaker than hsi. This year, Hongkong real estate stocks rose 18% higher than hsi.
Chan Louis, chief executive officer of the Central Plains real estate residential sector, is expected to decline in the next three months 60%-70%, the price is expected to fall 5%-8%; this is consistent with the previous expectations of the agency. Ricacorp properties Willy Liu said that the next two months turnover will decline 30%-40%, prices fell by 5%.
Ricacorp properties President Liao Weiqiang believes that the government "spicy" a greater impact on small and medium-sized residential, luxury effect slightly lighter. The next two months of housing trading volume will plunge 30% to 40%. As for the aspect of property prices, it is estimated that the drop will offset the rise since the beginning of the year.
"increase the rate of stamp duty is somewhat surprising," Mizuho Securities Asia analyst Alan Jin said; he estimated trading volume will decline 30%.
in addition, Citigroup will long estate (1113 HK), Wheelock (20 HK), Kerry (683 HK), and their letter (83 HK), Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) rating to sell. The Sun Hung Kai (16 HK), New World Development (17 HK) rating to neutral.
but Hongkong Centaline research department senior associate director Huang Liangsheng said, by the British off the European influence, Hongkong high net worth individuals re allocation of Hongkong real estate, which is the capital of "self-defense", 15% tax limited impact on large real estate transactions, from the long term utility is not large, but the short-term will on the market is expected to put pressure on the property market will be 2-3 month sideways.