The core data of the cliff downwards Singapore economy to collapse?
wangyicaijing· 2016-11-22 21:25:17
Guide: from the famous "East Asian Tigers" to one of the economic cliff type fall edge, Singapore economic downturn has shocked the world, it is an accidental decline or behind a deeper reason? Cliff core economic data Singapore fell is a harbinger of a new round of the Asian economic crisis?" with previous years began to plan and family Christmas holiday, Singapore enterprise boss David Lee is how to cut the cost of layoffs tangled.
9 month Mid Autumn Festival, he is not giving customers the traditional moon cake gift saved 14 thousand Singapore dollars (US $10 thousand) temporarily through the difficulties.
from the famous "East Asian Tigers" to one of the economic cliff type fall edge, Singapore economic downturn has shocked the world, it is an accidental decline or behind a deeper reason? Cliff core economic data Singapore fell is a harbinger of a new round of the Asian economic crisis?
Singapore's economy is struggling?
"now everyone is asking," will the end of the year be laid off? Enterprises can not get orders, but also to spend a fixed charge of management, the first to do is to cut marketing budget, the second step is to lay off. "Lee David on the" China Economic Weekly "reporter said.
according to the Ministry of manpower data released by the third quarter of 2016 the unemployment rate was 2.1%, and the second quarter, when the quarter unemployment of about 4100 people, 4800 people less than the second quarter, but the overall employment in the experience of the past two quarters increased slightly after the shrink, especially has been manufacturing employment for 8 a quarter shrink. According to data released by the Ministry of trade and industry in October 16th,
showed that Singapore's economy grew by third in the 0.6% quarter of 2016, down 4.1% from the chain. The data was released, the Singapore dollar exchange rate fell, day decline of 0.69%, and even the media therefore exclaimed Singapore economy to "collapse".
was one of the "four little dragons of Asia". What's wrong with Singapore?
"Singapore economy whether there fell cliff style is not important. More critical is that Singapore's economy is showing a long time to enter the economic downturn trend, which is more worrying. "China's Modern International Relations Institute of South Asia, Southeast Asia and the Oceania Institute of Singapore expert Song Yinghui said.
Song Yinghui analysts believe that the global financial crisis in 2008, Singapore economic atrophy occurred in 2009 2010, but soon recovered better, the recovery is influenced by the factors and the formation of short period, such as the use of increased cooperation with China in order to benefit from the China economy etc.. But from the beginning of 2012, has been unable to offset the short-term economic downturn leveraging the impact of Singapore's economy entered a rapid decline.
Singapore UOB senior economic analyst Jian said that the whole of Germany, most can directly reflect the Singapore economic situation is the development of the manufacturing industry, and manufacturing data in the past 8 quarters in the 7 quarter of negative growth. From the Department of trade and industry of Singapore published data, Singapore manufacturing industry in the first three quarters of 2016 the growth rate was -0.5%, 1.4%, -1.1%, third quarter of manufacturing fell 17.4%, once the economic pillar of the manufacturing sector accounted for the proportion of the economy has been less than 20%, and the range of Economic Strategy Committee suggested that 20%~25% has a certain gap.
full De Jian pointed out that the Singapore third industry accounted for a relatively high, 68%, but the service industry in the third quarter shrank by 0.1%, a substantial decline in the economic growth of the entire data. Singapore services is one of the reasons is that many poor export related service needs (including transportation, storage and transit trade, reduce).
former students full beyond the teacher
is clear that the current look at Singapore is no longer brilliant, the economic downturn trend is difficult to curb.
in addition to the big environment, Singapore is also facing a lot of competition.
as everyone knows, as a small land area is small, the lack of resources can be developed into now per capita GDP of nearly $60 thousand in developed countries, Singapore is located in the Malacca Strait entrance location contributed". Over the years, 30% of the world's maritime trade and more than 25% of oil transport through Singapore's control of the Strait of Malacca, it is precisely because of this, Singapore has a reputation - the Far East throat.
Singapore has become one of the world's leading shipping center, logistics center and financial center.
however, since 2010, the world's first port of Singapore's position was replaced by Shanghai. The throughput gap
originally Singapore port and Shanghai port is not obvious, but from the beginning of 2015, Singapore port container throughput of 30 million 922 thousand and 300 boxes, fell by 8.7%; the same year, Shanghai port container throughput of 36 million 537 thousand cases, an increase of 3.55%, the gap between the two has expanded, Singapore port container throughput is only about 80% of the port of Shanghai.
foreign media analysis, Shanghai from Japan, South Korea, North Korea, Taiwan, the Russian Far East and other closer, which means that the freight is lower. In addition, Shanghai and Singapore do not have the advantages of Chinese -- backed by this huge market, not only like Singapore as a pure transit port, Shanghai through the Yangtze River and Beijing Hangzhou the Grande Canale railway and the direct radiation of the world's largest market. But more importantly, Shanghai FTA policy now has to allow other countries to set up a foreign bank, allowing other countries to delivery of goods in Shanghai, some people think that Singapore offshore futures delivery will soon come to Shanghai, but only this one Singapore will be less income of nearly billion. At the same time, Shanghai has also become the Asian headquarters of many multinational companies favor base. PWC released the report shows that foreign investors in Shanghai has set up regional headquarters of multinational companies 525, of which the Asia Pacific headquarters 38, 307 investment companies, R & D center 391.
"Shanghai is the most attractive place in China, and I think it is obvious. Of course, it depends on what your business is, if your business is very dependent on the government, then in Beijing is meaningful. But if you are doing business in the consumer market, then, in Shanghai. ", President of the European Chamber of Commerce in China, said Adams.
Singapore is facing "survey Li Guangyao era" transformation of the
MasterCard, the first half of 2016, Singapore is one of the largest decline in consumer confidence in the Asia Pacific countries in 17 countries, since the confidence index fell to the lowest point in June 2009.
"another more obvious indicator is the proportion of wages, Singapore's overall wage share of GDP has been as high as 43%, more than the previous economic recession to enter the turning point of the numerical value. It can be determined that Singapore's economy has entered a recession and depression cycle. Song Yinghui said.
outside of Singapore's economy and employment are basically a more pessimistic attitude, and that as Singapore's prime minister, Li Xianlong is how to look at it?
recently, Li Xianlong participated in the Singapore Polytechnic University dialogue, he said he was confident that the economic recovery in Singapore is full of expectations.
2015 years in March, was known as the "little giant" in the world political arena, the death of former Prime Minister of Singapore Li Guangyao. In his ruling and continue to exert influence, Singapore's per capita GDP of $more than and 400 from 1960 to 1991, more than $14 thousand, to $55 thousand in 2013, created in a generation "turned" the miracle of developed countries.
in the post Li Guangyao era will face what kind of situation? In the throat of Singapore in shrinking trade is a sign of a new round of the Asian economic crisis?
in fact, the Singapore government is also aware that the light with headquarters economy, trade, logistics and financial industry is not able to support the long-term development. By the end of
2013, Singapore Prime Minister Li Xianlong announced that the next 5 years, the government allocated 330 million Singapore dollars to implement research, innovation and Entrepreneurship Program, continue to build Singapore into a knowledge economy. Among them, 130 million yuan for the development of network security research and development projects, in addition to 200 million yuan investment in medical diagnosis, speech and language, film and add layer to create these 4 innovative groups. At the same time, the government will also systematically absorb outstanding Singaporean scientists living abroad to improve research ability of local, and grow in Singapore are the core research team.
Li Xianlong said in a speech at the University of Singapore Polytechnic University, said: at present, the Singapore economy is facing a transition, we have not seen the effort to return. But I believe that the policy direction is correct, they will be able to produce results in the future. For the younger generation, not spoiled the "strawberry generation", but the hard "Durian generation", to face the future groundless talk. "
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