The RMB against the U.S. dollar plunged eight years of new subsistence allowances, 7 war in close proximity

Fall the yuan against the U.S. dollar low war

jinrongjie· 2016-11-26 20:09:15

yesterday morning China foreign exchange trading center announced the RMB exchange rate reported 6.9168, down 83 basis points, a record low since June 2008.

in recent days, the RMB stumble endlessly, the previous 13 trading days in the middle price of the RMB exchange rate against the dollar continued to drop, there have been only a rebound in November 22nd November 23rd; regain decline, 24, down 181 basis points yesterday again by 83 basis points to 6.9168, continuous hit the lowest point in more than 8 years, is nearly eight years, the central parity of RMB below 6.9 for the first time.

decline can not help but let the market in an uproar, the renminbi will hold "7" has become the most concerned problem.

not only in January to 6.8, 6.9 yuan even broken two integer

in a few days a picture of HK RMB "100 against 101.5" mad in the circle of friends, had been in Hongkong to buy things that can hit the 20 percent off buddies are not calm, the RMB has fallen by imperceptibly so much!

even in the real exchange rate yesterday, 100 yuan convertibility of about 112 Hong Kong dollars, in fact 100 years should become 900 thousand is an indisputable fact, familiar with the "twenty percent off", had disappeared!

this round of the RMB slump, began in October was incorporated into the IMF basket of special drawing rights (SDR), and the market did not appear obvious signs of central bank intervention. From early October to early November, the RMB in the short time around, it plummeted to 6.80 mark from the 6.70 mark a road, then the RMB exchange rate against the dollar is down for more than and 10 consecutive days, one after another, two exceeded 6.8 mark integer 6.9. From the devaluation of the magnitude of the view, has been the beginning of the devaluation of the wheel.

to know that in the end of last year after a substantial depreciation of the RMB exchange rate in the first half of this year, in fact, is still relatively stable. RMB short took a full six months time, only from 6.45 to 6.60 points. And the three quarter of this year, although the devaluation of the RMB rate has accelerated, but the overall is also within the controllable range. From the end of June to the beginning of October more than three months, the yuan fell by 6.60 to 6.70 off. The dollar index

major Asian currencies stride forward singing militant songs fall

dollar index is considered to stride forward singing militant songs, the source of the current round of RMB slump. In particular, the recent U.S. economic data released significantly exceeded market expectations, the consolidation of the market for the fed in December and next year's interest rate hike is expected to further push up the dollar index rose. U.S. dollar index fell 24 intraday high of 102, the highest since February 2003 13 and a half high, from about 97 of the level of the general election to the current 102, or more than 5% in a half month. So the short-term RMB against the U.S. dollar exchange rate is still facing devaluation pressure.

experts said that the recent devaluation of the RMB devaluation pressure is released before the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and the recent capital outflow pressure did not strengthen with the pressure of RMB devaluation, there is no outflow of funds situation to accelerate the deterioration of the situation. From July to October this year, the domestic bank foreign exchange settlement deficit totaled $73 billion 900 million, the average monthly deficit of $18 billion 500 million, the market of this round of devaluation of more rational response.

in fact, not only is the slump in the yuan against the US dollar, the main Asian currencies are just passable situation. Statistics show that in November 8th, Trump won the Asian major currency exchange rate fell sound a. Which as of November 24th 8 at night, Malaysia ringgit depreciated by 6.77% since November 8th, hit a 10 month low. The dollar against the Philippines dollar exchange rate fell below 50 for the first time in 2008, the beginning of the year, the Philippines's decline of about 6%, of which 3.13 percentage points, was elected after the contribution of. In addition, the India since Trump was elected since has slipped 15, the largest for 3.74% months. And won the cumulative depreciation of 4.52%.

Reuters survey showed that over the past two weeks, including the RMB currency, including the 9 emerging markets, Asian countries have been empty, for the first time in more than nine months this situation.

yuan to the pursuit of a basket of currencies exchange rate stability

although the yuan against the dollar, but the RMB against a basket of currencies in the recent period of time is actually rising. Chinese Foreign Exchange Trading Center released data show that in November 18th CFETS, the RMB exchange rate index was 94.54, representing an increase of 0.21 percentage points (November 11th). In addition, the reference BIS and SDR currency basket of the RMB exchange rate index also rose.

experts pointed out that the RMB is not weak, although the RMB against the U.S. dollar continued to fall, but the RMB against other non US currencies are still strong. Data show that since November 7th the U.S. dollar index rose 5%, the RMB against the U.S. dollar spot rate fell by less than 2.5%. But at the same time, the euro fell more than 5.5% against the U.S. dollar, the yen against the U.S. dollar fell by more than 10%. And since November 7th, the RMB against the yen spot exchange rate rose more than 6%. Researcher

financial development research center of the State Council Wu Qing believes that this round of the RMB exchange rate against the dollar depreciation seems suddenly, but carefully investigated the reason can be found that changes in the exchange rate of RMB to dollar, not the devaluation of the renminbi, but the dollar in appreciation, appreciation and the speed is fast. And the reason for the rapid appreciation of the dollar, the results of the election of the United States is released, to eliminate the uncertainty of the market. Two is the euro zone and Japan have unexpected events, such as the earthquake in Japan, contributed to the strong rise in the dollar.

Wu Qing believes that the yuan is the pursuit of a basket of currencies exchange rate stability, so in this round of international monetary system fluctuations, the RMB exchange rate is stable.

RMB against the U.S. dollar in the end can hold the "7"?

so in the inertia of the fall, the RMB against the U.S. dollar in the end can hold the "7"? This problem is currently a lot of people are most concerned about.

from the RMB against the U.S. dollar fell to 6.9 this year, fell to 6.45 in the course of several stages of the time taken to see, at every stage of the time actually have shrunk at least half. This can not help but make the market speculation, the next yuan from 6.9 to 7, and how long it will take?

recently China's central bank lowered the median price, but also makes the market speculation that the dollar is strong, the decision makers will tolerate further depreciation of the rmb. Commonwealth of Australia Bank report said, lower financing costs may encourage investors to increase offshore RMB positions, with the dollar rise, the offshore renminbi fell to 1 U.S. dollar 7 yuan in the short term. Goldman Sachs Group said last week that shorting the yuan is one of its preferred strategies for the next year.

German commercial bank believes that the next year, the RMB broke 7 is a high probability event, may be down to 7.2-7.3. But in the short term, the central bank may act in December, especially after the Christmas light turnover, the RMB exchange rate against the dollar or the emergence of a wave of pull up, to provide space for next year's retreat.

gold company believes that the central bank is expected to still maintain effective exchange rate stability, due to the dollar may continue to be strong, the RMB against the U.S. dollar is still under pressure, but the year may hold 7 points.

RMB against the U.S. dollar can hold 7, the market may not have the bottom, but still believe that the mainstream view, the RMB exchange rate is the bottom of the unilateral devaluation of the market will not be maintained for a long time. Inertia will enhance the short-term depreciation of the RMB will continue to face the pressure of breaking the "7". However, in the long term does not have a substantial depreciation of the RMB devaluation of the conditions, will eventually return to the level determined by the fundamentals. Guotai Junan analysis team said that the current round of devaluation is basically in the market under the policy of tolerance, the exchange rate is expected from the "bottom" to "".

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