How to judge the value of the gold suit 60 billion ants are virtual high
shangjie· 2016-04-28 19:52:22
, < p > in the past few days, the domestic Internet banking giant news is more, first to comb the related news:
√ and the first finance and economics" the earliest released about ant gold service valuation of close to Baidu, baidu fell out of the bat's news.
√ and on Friday later, 36kr appeared a piece of news about the micro focus bank a round of financing blocked, and then quickly in various media diffusion.
√ and this Tuesday, that is, yesterday, about the official caliber of the B round of financing for the ants. < p > this article ant gold suit with new architecture:
figure mascot for ant gold service logo
formula for: < ants gold service =Visa+ Paypal+ Wells Fargo +Fico+AIG+Charles Schwarb +lending club.
also announced the relevant financing shareholders. < p > this formula looks pretty scary, if the market value of the company on the right hand side of the formula and a, ant the valuation is to how many ah! < p >, < p > first, we consider their valuation model: analogy valuation method. < p > absolute valuation method need to discount the cash flows, and high-speed Internet business, changeable, do not look at the characteristics of short-term profit, makes to cash flow discount model based absolute valuation method, do not have use of space. So for Internet companies, the valuation of the general use of the relative valuation method.
Internet companies relative valuation method, generally based on the number of users, trading volume, or traffic for valuation.
and Ant King service valuation, is to take the analogy valuation method. The reason is that currently do not have the same type, integrated Internet banking listed companies can be directly according to the "city x rate" analogy, estimated market value.
so chose to disassemble the plate, the business sector, the business unit for valuation. < p > to see their proposed business model: Wells Fargo Visa+Paypal+ bank +Fico+AIG +Charles Schwarb +lending club
VISA, the current market value of $1736 billion;
Paypal, the current market value of $482 billion; < Wells Fargo, the current market value of $2584 billion;
Fico, the current market value of $33 billion;
AIG, the current market value of $650 billion.
Charles Schwarb, the current market value of $391 billion;
Lengding club, now has a market capitalisation of $28 billion. < p > this is the basic.
first to start from the first, VISA, the main industry and the cup, is a cross line transaction clearing system, in our country, the central bank is the last of the liquidation. Relevant financial laws and regulations, the bank also liquidation, in the country can only be carried out by UnionPay related business.
this is not the relationship between the ants and the half dime.
and I don't say you in Alipay's money, you can go to the card, so that a similar function.
last year, on the third party to pay the draft, the provisions of the third party is strictly prohibited to become a settlement, contrary to the nature of the third party to pay the original small, fast payment.
liquidation of such operations, the central bank to complete the domestic or designated institutions by the bank; International Bank for International Settlements (for International Settlement BIS, Bank) completed.
similar to the work of the United States UnionPay, completed by VISA and MasterCard, the family is a credit card international organizations, and ants do not have any business relationship.
put this model into the plate, to allow users to "amazing" and "fast understanding" of the role. Give you a strong sense of the senses.
in fact, the root and the valuation of the stick is not stained.
in addition, at this stage, China UnionPay and Apple Pay Cooperation (rather than "wolf", are reluctant to find domestic cooperation, the goal is to "organize") about Alipay, WeChat to pay, this kind of "liquidation" of the third party company. A in the
, B round of financing list, did not appear in the shadow of the cup or associated companies.
so, this business unit valuation, can be directly cut off. To put the relevant companies, but a means of confusion.
PayPal valuation of $48 billion 200 million, this is similar to alipay.
in my previous analyses in "the ant gold suit after B round of financing, BAT ATM? Think too much!", mentioned:
for the space imagination of Alipay, the biggest limitation is: go out of the country. That is to say, PayPal can travel around the world, from the strength of the dollar; while the RMB is not the same, at present, Alipay will have to see the objective international environment. So it is difficult to go out of the country, or the need for the internationalization of the RMB, this big background is not resolved, the Ant King is facing a lot of ceiling.
so, can be similar to compare it: Tencent in the field of social networking and Facebook in the global social field. The market value of Tencent
/Facebook=β /PayPal = Alipay valuation (calculation process slightly) calculate Alipay valuation of about US $30 billion 300 million. < p >, < Wells Fargo Bank, community bank, attention to the small business, the current market value of $2584 billion, but they are not a kind of enterprise. The environment is completely different.
based on the information on the weekend, my personal view is: the announcement said that the public finance failure, more than 95% of the public relations.
commercial bank, real to contrast to the micro public bank. The domestic environment is similar, the play is also affected by the remote account problem, the shareholding ratio of 30%.
this is regulatory requirements, private companies, the highest single shareholder of the bank to open 30%; but I personally think that there should be related to the control of the agreement. Similar to Goldman Sachs in China business, the formation of a joint venture by Goldman Sachs Gao hua.
in the joint venture, Goldman Sachs invested 264 million yuan (equivalent to the U.S. dollar in cash contribution), with 33% of the shares, high Hua Securities is invested 536 million yuan, with 67% of the absolute control over the face.
but the company, is the essence of Goldman Sachs, its appearance is only in order to meet the regulatory.
so at the end of the valuation, the overall valuation will be included in the ant king.
so these two Internet banks, the giants similar valuation. Environment, development and fundamentals are similar. Informed sources revealed to the Wall Street Journal, Tencent micro public bank is seeking a new round of financing, to expand its financial services business, the size of the financing plan of about $10 billion, micro public bank valuation in the current round of financing could reach $50 billion.
recently this round of valuation, the bank is still in the micro.
e-businessmen bank valuation, roughly in the range: $5 billion.
and then talk about Fico and sesame credit rating.
sesame credit in the country is in addition to the central bank, do the best. Due to its own characteristics, the central bank credit system in the field of the Internet, should not be analogical competition.
considering the specific market conditions in the United States and China, optimistic about the same value of sesame credit rating and Fico, to maintain a $3 billion 300 million valuation.
for Schwab and AIG valuation, and ant payment service is relatively ant treasure and Zhong An insurance.
Schwab (Charles Schwarb) has been very mature, but it does not treasure and ants in an order of magnitude. Completely not comparable.
personal valuation, belonging to the fraction of nature, for the valuation of 1 billion dollars. (the no according to, affect a very small weight, by virtue of personal feeling, do not spray) < 8, valuation of the
AIG should considering ant gold suit holding Zhong An insurance.
at present, Zhong An Insurance Holdings in more than 5% of the shareholders a total of eight. Among them, the ants from the Ali group split out 19.9% of the gold suit, for a single largest shareholder. Ping An insurance and Tencent, Chinese unifront holding 15% equity. Shenzhen City Jiadexin investment, Shenzhen news network technology, Ctrip in Beijing and Shanghai is far stronger investment respectively holding 14%, 8.1%, 5%, 5%. Because the
commercial bank and on a different. Several shareholders, strength equivalence. Therefore, according to the ant king take 20% of the calculation of the shareholding. < p > currently Zhong An insurance has been profitable, investment valuation of about 550 million yuan, investment valuation for a total of 640 million yuan, and predict 2017 to start listing plan. This is more than the market to pass its $8 billion (about 49 billion 700 million yuan) a slightly higher valuation.
(data from Caixin)
so, Zhong An insurance valuation is probably around 10 billion dollars. Therefore
ant gold holdings clothing Zhong An insurance value of about 2 billion dollars.
and club Lengding business correspondence is the Ant King's gold service.
gold society itself, the development of the general, based on the strength of the Ant King service itself, its most optimistic, it should refer to pleasant loan, rather than LC.
pleasant loan is currently listed on the NYSE, the market value of $720 million. Give a $1 billion valuation tentatively optimistic.
to look at the plate of the Hang electronic business.
Hang Seng electronics, today, the market value of 32 billion yuan, or about $5 billion. < p > early in April last year, Ma through its holding of Zhejiang Financial Channel (MA holds Zhejiang Financial 99.1365% shares, Xie Shi Huang holds Zhejiang Financial letter 0.8635% of the shares), completed the acquisition of Hang Seng group.
(time is April 2014)
so Ma indirectly holds about 20% of the Hang Seng electronics.
Hang Seng electronic announcement, said the controlling shareholder of the Hang Seng group, the parent company of the Hang Seng group, Zhejiang financial letter and its existing shareholders Ma, Xie Shihuang, signed with the Ant King service agreement. The agreement shows that the Ant King service will be through the subscription of new shares and the acquisition of equity capital of Zhejiang and the acquisition of the remaining shares of existing shareholders, to obtain a 100% stake in Zhejiang financial letter.
(time is June 2015)
so ant gold service indirectly holds 20% of the shares of the hang seng.
this one, the market value of around 1 billion dollars. < p > 11, < ants payment service business, Paytm excluding India and South Korea K bank business, and in front of the mentioned business valuation, the rest of the business should is similar to the Jingdong financial. < p > from the balance of treasure, treasure trick, Bai flower, rural business, ants of guest, and so on, Jingdong financial have corresponding to the business. Given valuation, is also similar.
3 2, 2009 news, Jingdong group in the fourth quarter earnings announcement in 2015 revealed that the Jingdong finance 6 billion 650 million yuan financing transactions completed in March 1, 2016. Jingdong to complete the financial valuation of 46 billion 650 million yuan RMB financing 6 billion 650 million yuan.
conversion about, is about $7 billion 100 million. < p > summary: Taking the relative valuation method, basically follows the following financial principles:
√ and find out the market related business unit valuation;
√ and valuation of financial sources to publicly traded, valuation of publicly traded to prevail;
√ and there is no publicly traded, find a recent issue of the available transaction price valuation; < concluded that calculation result is: through relevant data have been obtained, the ant gold service valuation has reached 510 billion dollars. (excluding the paytm and South Korea K-bank) < p > this is in the business unit spin off one by one estimate, and put them together, form synergies, plus foreign two layout, to tell you the truth, 600 billion valuation is high? < considering Ali's strong position valuation in 600 million, a little is not high.
the most important is that this time B round of financing, is the same as the state-owned shares. Is the way to go X family ah.
so valuation is normal.
why this time to get so many state-owned assets to enter the country, in fact, there is also an interpretation, the next time to write it!