High prices behind the high crime: Beijing 3 million 800 thousand homeowners can not contact
xincaifuzazhi· 2016-12-10 00:50:26
on the topic of housing prices has been very popular, a lot of friends in the circle of friends every day in forwarding a variety of analysis of the article. It seems that people who talk about prices is the most fashionable people fashion.
Oh, real estate or stock worth mentioning, engage in these things inside, there is a part of the absolute sense of the criminals.
although these criminals are not the fundamental cause of today's high prices, but these criminals are definitely high prices booster.
today, this article will be through a lot of foam, take everyone to look at, and real estate related to a variety of criminal activities.
May this year has been a very sensational news, do not know if you have not seen:" gentlemen, what students can pay 110 million yuan down payment to buy a house?
yes, to chat with the real estate related the first to talk about money laundering crime.
regardless of telecommunications fraud, drug trafficking, smuggling, gambling, illegal fund-raising, underground, bribery or corruption, as long as the crime of money laundering, must be. Since it is money, it must be washed.
how money laundering? If you are American TV series "breaking bad" the hero in the old white, because of a high school chemistry teacher suffering from cancer to drug trafficking.
a start, the momentum is good, the old white one month by drug trafficking will be able to earn $50 thousand.
but so much money, it is obviously not the old white such a high school teacher can earn.
so he opened a chicken shop with his wife.
if you go to this chicken shop to see, you will find, in addition to the two guys and a few sporadic guests, here is very lonely.
but if you look at the book, you'll find that at least 500 people a day come here to eat chicken.
so the money earned by drug trafficking has become a legitimate income from selling chicken.
then later, the old white one month by drug trafficking to earn $100 thousand. How to do it, so he opened a car wash shop.
if you look at the car wash the book, you found that ordinary car wash shop the American small town, one day can wash 500 cars, and the 500 car owners also have to spend money to buy boxes of mineral water, buy a glass of water, bought a large number of auto parts.
later, no, old white a month to earn 5 million dollars.
well, this is the trouble, so much money, not too late to wash it. Do what serious business can earn $5 million a month, ah, how to wash the
finally old white can only choose to find a remote unmanned warehouse, to hide the money.
in real life, in 70s Columbia famous drug lord Pablo. Ace Kovar, a year on drug trafficking can earn 20 billion dollars, so much money in a country like Columbia could not have been washed.
so he did it: Yes, digging a hole.
Pablo is said to have a time to bundle of money bands need to spend 30 thousand yuan, a year by the mouse gnawed the bill with 1 billion.
gentlemen, unfortunately, Pablo China today if you live in the north of Guangzhou Shenzhen, he must know how to money laundering.
casually carry out a house, 5 million, lot is estimated that the slums.
value of one hundred million houses everywhere.
although the purchase, but an identity card in Beijing can buy a set, but also to buy a set in Shanghai, in Shenzhen can buy a set of....
as for the so-called real name system, is dead. For criminals, engage in a number of accounts, engage in what people are separated, is simply playing the same.
is the most important thing is to buy a house, cash can be used with
real cash!! after the money is directly into the bank, the bank!
but more important: used to money laundering this thing, is to spend a lot of cost in general.
for example, you open a car wash shop, rent, laundry decoration, equipment, labor, finance, taxation.... Not easy to earn, washed into 800 thousand.
but through real estate money laundering, not only do not lose, but also appreciation.
has so many favorable conditions, the use of real estate to money laundering, it has become a very favorable choice.
so the question is, how to rely on the house to money laundering?
such as you have 5 million cash, you can take the money to any one Real Estate Company's sales department, then you tell the beautiful miss sale: I want to buy a house.
guess sales Miss first say what?
guess sales Miss will ask you: Sir, how do you come to the 5 million cash ah, is not a legitimate income?
which sales Miss head is broken.
yes, it's that simple. To set up a shell company, but the company registered the legal person is certainly not you.
then use the money to the crime, in the name of the company to buy a suite. When the
program you have two choices: money laundering practices bad, buy a suite with 500 full paragraph. Clever
money laundering practices, can do with 5 million down payment, buy a set of 20 million of the value of housing, and then continue to use the money to repay.
short, without any intermediary companies or real estate company is these money is not money.
buy a house later, after six months to sell.
so you wonder that money laundering into legitimate income.
what? The big brother is too rich, too tired to think of a house to buy a set of
do not worry, we set up a Real Estate Company, we have a large scale of money laundering.
yes, today's China, there are some people rely on this means to money laundering. Behind the skyrocketing housing prices, great credit for these people. What is the specific credit fueled or icing on the cake, I don't know.
attention to finance and economics friends are sure to know that there is a famous professor, called Lang Xianping.
years ago, the Mr. Lang shouted a famous words, called: private enterprise is a sin.
with the corresponding, is our national father-in-law.
our national father just ran a private enterprise, and still make real estate started, this company is called wanda.
National Father said a very famous words, please note that this sentence is not a small target one hundred million".
is that: "Wanda never no bribes. Because of this sentence "
Mr. Wang, a widely circulated piece. This piece is written like this:
when Wang Jianlin faced the media interview, very calm and say "when Wanda never no bribe, Hengda Hermes brother Xu Jiayin is Hengda ice fountain drink, after hearing these words, a spit in the face of Ma Yun; Mr. Wang Shi Vanke mountaineers just climbed to the halfway up the mountain, after hearing these words called the sentence" I X ", almost led to Everest avalanche.
Wang Jianlin shouted the words of the time, according to the research is in 2012, for many years, this sentence has become a proud Wanda enterprise culture.
4 years later, chairman Wang finally pops face, please check the news on September 28th, to take a screenshot jellyfish for you:" Chairman Wang is clap face, but this is not the most terrible. The
problem is the Jincheng is a city of Dalian Municipal Committee, only a small role, bribery or the date of 08 years and 09 years. Who is the big role behind the
? Our chairman Wang and his son the future fate?
gentlemen, people really look forward to. Our chairman Wang has just recently for China high price bubble advocate, the results will come out such a news.
seems to have recently changed the direction of the wind,
Oh, just cite this example, just warm up, then we talk about how to use the house to bribe.
when it comes to bribery, it is very simple, it is the enterprise to send money to corrupt officials.
how to send the money? How to send the commission can not be found, or even to check can also deny? Very simple, please see the following case:
an official home has a value of 5 million of the property, then a real estate developer to the officer of bribery.
so developers sent a hand under a small messenger, this property makes the foals to buy officials.
signed a contract to buy a house, to pay a 2 million deposit.
purchase contract expressly states: 2 million deposit has been paid, if the buyer to give up the purchase of a breach of contract, compensation for double liquidated damages.
nature of the breach of contract, the Cowboys paid 4 million penalty compensation to the official, the official White House, holding 4 million, and it is completely legitimate income.
please note that after booking, the penalty is a very common behavior that double compensation in the contract, no doubt.
so, the official logical received 4 million bribe, excuse me, how the case procuratorate to convict?
well, unfortunately I Wanda chairman Wang Jianlin, your men at 08 years, bribery practices was so stupid, actually can be checked out.
in Chinese Piandai of small and medium-sized enterprises, apply for loans from banks, the difficulty is high, no less than white money to the jews.
even if not easy to borrow a bank loan, but also to pay about ten percent or even 15 of the interest.
if you can not borrow money from the bank, it is to use private lending.
general interest is more than twenty percent.
but you will be a magical discovery, an ordinary people, as long as there is a legitimate work, and to pay the housing fund, the bank can close the eyes of millions of money to buy a house to buy a house.
and the first suite of benchmark rate is only about four point five percent.
gentlemen, excuse me, this time, if you are a manager of small and medium-sized enterprises, facing the risk of capital chain rupture, and you just have a value of 10 million of the property, how would you do?
to 10 million of the value of the house sold?
to 10 million of the value of the house mortgaged to the bank and the loan?
OK, I'll tell you: the first step of
, to find a reliable absolute relatives, such as his sister, mother and so on, in a word, as long as it is not an account of this on the line.
second step: find an intermediary, the house price of 12 million.
third: 4 million to the relatives, let him use the 4 million down payment, and then from the bank lent 8 million.
third step: the transfer of the house to the name of their relatives, they did not spend a penny, 4 million or their own, 8 million loans and hand, the house is still their own.
and please note that the original value of 10 million of the real estate, the price is 12 million.
this more out of the 2 million, was originally intended to make more loans from banks.
but a house price increase of twenty percent this news came out, what is the effect?
if the above is just a house Piandai means, then 200 house? After a new development of
such as the development of a company is completed, the completion of about 200 sets of houses to be sold.
but this time, just in the real estate downturn phase, the sale rate is very slow.
and is at this time, the company's capital chain is also about to break, if you can not quickly sell the 200 sets of houses to recover the funds, the company will have to say goodbye to you.
so the boss of the company decided to bet on a.
boss found 200 young people, get their ID card, and then fill out the purchase of 200 copies of the material.
then magically from the hands of the bank, to get 200 sets of house loan.
yes, the house was sold out, and the loan to get a hand, the financial chain rupture crisis lifted, the bank also completed in advance of this year's loan assessment indicators. Of course, it is
to the satisfaction of all, prices also rose.
a lot of real estate enterprises, rely on this Piandai, through the real estate winter.
as long as the spring, prices rise, the crisis has passed the enterprise. On the day of
but a few enterprises not quite to the skyrocketing housing prices, the capital chain is broken.
so corporate corporate prison, the house was taken away by the bank.
just jellyfish to cite this example, it is the real estate industry super hidden rules.
for example, in 2006 and 2007, is China's real estate industry super winter.
N in the past few years, a number of Real Estate Company, not to the spring of 2009 4 trillion, so have died, like this company, in 2000 2006 in Piandai, completely broken capital chain, in 2009 the legal person was sentenced to life imprisonment." tut Tut, just a little, just a little, the housing prices will be able to usher in 2009 4 trillion.
unfortunately, ah, not quite in the past, the company's boss can only sit in the prison, looking at the past peers who turned the times to make money.
very clear to tell you that all of the Real Estate Company in the country, all owe a huge amount of bank loans.
play real estate people, is playing a financial, but also highly leveraged financial.
and for this kind of phenomenon, the bank is open one eye, close one eye.
for banks, as long as you continue to fund the chain, you can also my interest on time, you are legal loans. Which day you
the money chain is broken, the nature is Piandai naturally going to jail, do I also recover the house.
housing prices bet, is to be able to successfully transition to the next real estate cycle.
bank is on the one hundred room inside, only one room capital chain rupture, as long as you don't crash the entire real estate market, the bank can recover the house at a high price to sell, the bank's capital chain will break.
unless one day, all of the real estate enterprises in the capital chain at the same time, the bank to recover a pile of bricks and mortar can not return.
then the bank's capital chain is broken, the financial crisis, no, is the financial earthquake happened.
said so much involved in the high level of crime in the form of real estate, we most want to know is not these, but prices will not rise in the end.
well, for this problem, dare to discuss a
: many people discuss prices, first discuss a problem: the house is just, so the house price will rise forever.
"just need" this word, it is very interesting.
what is just? Bag just need to count?
for all women, a nice bag is always just to be. The girl never graduated from
University, can go to the Xizhimen moving batch buy fake LV, well-known host of a TV station, can go to Shin Kong really buy LV, even hermes.
house is the truth.
who needs a house, but the house is a good house.
in Beijing, the house is divided into the ring inside the house and 6 outside the house.
in the country, the house is divided into the house of Beijing and the house of Gansu.
, of course, is also divided into rent to the house and buy a house.
for an ordinary family of college girls, her hand even with 10 thousand dollars, may also choose to pay the tuition fee, and even telecommunications fraud cheated, but she is definitely not to buy really LV.
for a migrant workers just to work in Beijing, he may not be in Beijing in this life to buy a house.
so, you see, the so-called buy a house in Beijing that group of people, in theory, is always those who can afford to buy, can not afford to buy, and then how just need, also won't buy.
so in this case, the price of the house, will be in a state of balance gradually slow and reasonable growth.
so today, Beijing City, the average price of 6 in case of a reasonable price,
price is reasonable, but the time to reach this price is not reasonable.
if the prices of Beijing, the annual average of ten percent of the rate of growth in 2020, when it rose to 6 in case of flat, which is called reasonable growth.
however, today's Beijing prices, is in a short period of 10 months, directly doubled, rose to 6 in case of flat.
the price of anything, use this speed to grow, must use a lot of leverage, so there must be a bubble.
2015, China A shares, with only half a year, from 2100 soared to 5000, more than doubled.
Oh, we all know the back of the matter.
over the years, our country served as chairman of the Commission, hope to A shares led to a so-called "Manniu" road. Because
Manniu is healthy, the outcome is bound to be too horrible to look at the mad cow.
to tell you a data:
at the time of 2009 Chinese skyrocketing property, the capital of our country, the data showed a net inflow of overseas hot money, the influx of China Everfount.
that time, Chinese government introduced various policies, containment various overseas hot money, to prevent the emergence of inflation.
today, 2016, China skyrocketing property market again. But at present, our country's capital, is net outflow. China financial supervision department
, the most busy, is to encircle these funds, do not let them out of China.
so you have to ask, why is the same market fluctuate, the net inflow of 09 years, 16 years of net outflow?
because Chinese joined SDR? Because the United States is expected at the end of the interest rate?
well, I don't know. But personally feel that this data is not normal, very unlucky.
everyone is talking about real estate, but few people know is a problem, that is Chinese earth how much house?
Ma Guangyuan: the clear China how many houses
10 the first half months, hot city in the purchase limit credit policy, not only decreased the volume, prices also rose has been curbed. But Chinese real estate development today, the scale has been large enough, by piecemeal policy, is unable to solve the real "price" problem fundamentally.
in this regard, the economist Ma Guangyuan believes that the more urgent task is to figure out how much the house in china. He said: why is
in the cycle to inventory, prices has soared even skyrocketing expectations? Why a large number of new loans into real estate, in addition to monetary policy this year than expected easing, and global asset shortage, the author believes that the most fundamental reason is that we have been Chinese still missing house, especially big city house. From data transparency, Chinese real estate market is really a "lemon market", whether it is the basic data of the house prices, statistical index, land supply, city planning, housing demand and so on, is basically a muddled account.
to get the basic data of the house, since 1998, the real estate market, how many houses in China, the stock of the stock of each city how much, so far no department has done statistics. The author in the study of China's real estate problems, the most headache is that there is no reliable data to be able to use. For example, Beijing, Beijing now how many houses, how many houses each year, the next 10 years, the number of newly added population in Beijing, the number of housing, housing construction sector without any authoritative data. Remember the Beijing Municipal Public Security Bureau one year had a data, is roughly about 3800000 of households have no connection to Beijing, was interpreted by the market as Beijing vacant about 3800000 houses, although the authorities denied this, but really there are many houses, is still a mystery.
based on this, the author has called for years to carry out a real census of housing in China, to make clear how many houses in China, the number of houses in each city. This problem as long as it is clear and transparent, how prices go, in fact, people will judge their own. If this problem has been a confused account, become a secret, the house will become scarce speculation work, the price surge will become the norm, the healthy development of real estate will become an empty word. How much the house made clear, but also to provide basic data for the future of real estate tax, in order to provide the most basic decision-making basis for the real estate policy.
is very difficult to stabilize prices, that simple is very simple, as long as the house supply and demand data do not completely transparent, as long as the supply of land hungry marketing, as long as the housing security and the housing market to clarify the boundaries, prices will return to rational. In the case of incomplete data based house, there will be a variety of man-made shortage panic, leading to rising prices irrational.
Chinese market vacancy rate statistics of "difficult"
in fact, not only is the "Chinese number house", is often used as an important index to evaluate the market "health", the housing vacancy rate has been a concern. In recent years, the high vacancy rate of China's property market has repeatedly been mentioned in the topic of the source of the data is not a. From the "number of lights" to the big data estimates, citing each have a reason, but it is difficult to get a general recognition of the community, the key issue is the lack of authority of the data.
so, what statistical nanzaihechu? "
international housing vacancy rate is the number of all the houses as the denominator, the number of housing rental rent out, want to sell not sell for molecular data obtained. "China Real Estate Association Secretary General Gu Yunchang said, but specific to China, to calculate the accuracy of China's housing vacancy rate has several difficulties.
he explained, first of all, statistical caliber is not clear. From 1986 to 2014 housing census, nearly 30 years, the number of housing has been a huge change, including the expansion of housing demolition, the total base is difficult to clear statistics, "compared with foreign countries, the basic data Chinese insufficiency, population change and urban development is too fast, it is difficult to keep up with statistical data the pace of reality".
second, the data source is not clear. "A variety of housing vacancy rate statistics are difficult to perfect. Even from door to door survey may not be able to get the full and accurate data. On the one hand, the survey is difficult to cover all of the country's cities and towns; on the other hand, the information given by the tenants also have 'water' in which. "Gu Yunchang said, in addition, some institutions will be for sale of commercial housing area equivalent to the vacant housing area, but in fact, they are not equal".
2015 in May, an article in the "Xinhua Daily Telegraph" quoted the National Bureau of statistics sources said the view: "in the short term and
on the surface, is mainly the vacant state and time is difficult to give a standard to clearly calculated difficult. From the deep point of view, the main is that we have not supported the credit system, the lack of objective scientific investigation. Future attention to the implementation of the real estate registration system. "
China's housing vacancy rate how high?
vacancy rate is a moment of vacant housing area accounted for the total housing area ratio. According to the international conventions, the vacancy rate of commercial housing is a reasonable area between 5% to 10%, commercial housing supply and demand balance, is conducive to the healthy development of the national economy; the vacancy rate is between 10% and 20% for the vacant danger zone, to take certain measures to increase the intensity of home sales, to ensure the normal operation of the normal development of the real estate market and the national economy; the vacancy rate in more than 20% of the serious backlog of commercial housing area.
China's real estate market vacancy rate is what level, there is no authoritative data. But there are some scattered research results, is worth considering, for example:
first, China family financial investigation and Research Center released in June 10, 2014 of the "urban housing vacancy rate and housing market trends, the research report shows that in 2013 the national urban family housing vacancy rate up to 22.4%, the six largest city of Chongqing, Shanghai Chengdu, Wuhan, Beijing, Tianjin, the vacancy rate was 25.6%, 18.5%, 24.7%, 23.5%, 22.5%, 19.5%. From the regional differences, the three line of urban housing vacancy rate is the highest, 23.2%; first, second tier cities were 21.2% and 21.8%. In addition, China's housing vacancy rate has been higher than the United States, Japan, the European Union and other countries and regions.
vacant housing occupied bank loans are idle capital, reducing the efficiency of financial markets. As of August 2013, vacant housing accounted for 4 trillion and 200 billion of the housing loan balance. Vacant housing assets in the value of the total assets of vacant housing in the total assets of 34.4%, in the town of the total assets of all households in the proportion of 11.8%, is a huge waste of social resources.
second, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) vice president Zhu Min had said during the spring of 2015, the Chinese property market is the main problem is the vacancy rate is too high, the vacant area of 1 billion square meters.
third, issued a joint Tencent and Chinese real estate news institutions such as the "May 2015 National City housing market survey report" shows that the main China city housing vacancy rate in the overall level of between 22% and 26%. Chinese real estate news for directional survey in one or two level real estate development company, agent, marketing mechanism, the second-hand housing intermediary, real estate business, real estate industry has shown that the current vacancy rate of 22% first-tier cities, second tier city 24%.
from the vacancy rate data, can get two conclusions: one is China the vacancy rate is relatively high, close to or reach a serious backlog cordon overall; two is the two or three line of the city's vacancy rate is more serious, first-tier cities relatively better.
from the housing, the vacancy rate of small and medium cities may be higher because of excessive construction. The vacancy rate in large cities may be related to excessive speculation.
from the shops, the first vacancy rate is low, the three or four line is higher. Major cities in the commercial development of many small and medium cities, the first tier cities of the vacancy rate is very low, generally below 10%. From the big win business network data center data show that in 2015 two or three Chinese line city shops market average vacancy rate level is still very high, but first-tier cities the vacancy rate of shops is very low.
specific to the city, first-tier cities in Shanghai the highest vacancy rate, above 10% in 2015 is 1.7 percentage points higher than in 2014. And Beijing's vacancy rate is low, only 5%, and a slight decline in 2015. Class= img_box "
second tier cities, the northeast region of the vacancy rate is significantly higher than other regions. Shenyang's vacancy rate of more than 18%, far more than other second tier cities, Qingdao's vacancy rate is also in a higher position. The vacancy rate in Northeast China reflects the overall decline of the northeast economy in recent years and the situation of the population outflow.
from the jellyfish Wind information, True Detective Agency, Zeping macro "img_box" class= "
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