Hengda 11 days floating loss 1 billion 387 million, who can laugh last
Windzixun· 2016-12-10 00:51:05
in this brutal struggle and in the game, Hengda has significant weakness, Wang Shi or the last laugh?
source: Hongkong million, Xinhua comprehensive report, twenty-first Century economic Chinese brokerage
Author: Qin Xiaoqin
in the venture capital stock market after a high-profile appearance, to his face at the universal insurance regulatory storm. This is not the end, well-known investment bank Goldman Sachs research report recently released bearish Vanke A. According to the twenty-first Century economic report estimates, as of December 8th, Hengda November 18th -11 29 holdings of 509 million 800 thousand shares have been floating loss of about 1 billion 387 million yuan. This will
radical venture capital holding placards again on public opinion in the teeth of the storm. The industry pointed out that in this brutal struggle and the game, some of the radical insurance enterprises or face cash flow pressure and solvency adequacy ratio pressure, and this or means such as Dong Mingzhu, Wang Shi, or can laugh until the end?
Hengda life 10 days floating loss of about 1 billion 387 million yuan
yesterday to disturb the capital market, from Goldman Sachs Gao Hua, a research report.
according to the research report, Vanke maintain sell rating, 12 months target price of 16.5 yuan / share. Given the reason is that the target price, Vanke A valuation is far higher than the normal level of . And this is to some extent, since the end of July Hengda holdings Vanke A shares to 14.07% due.
A is much higher than the current valuation of Vanke since 2010 1 standard deviation interval history (relative to the end of 2016 is expected to net asset value premium of 8%, corresponding to 13.9 times 2016 earnings and 2.5 times 2016 expected net rate), and relative to the A shares interbank (relative to net assets value discount of 22%, price earnings ratio 11.6 times, city net rate of 2 times) there is a substantial premium.
research report pointed out that its share price has far exceeded the net asset value through reasonable capital allocation can achieve the expansion potential, the current stock price has been included in the net asset value plus leverage the potential for expansion of .
this means that the from December 8th closing price of the stock has more than 30% of the decline in space .
affected by this, Vanke A weakened further in December 8th close to close at 24.74 yuan, down 1.59%. It is worth mentioning that the recent decline in the share price of Vanke A, relative to the November 18th short-term price of 29 yuan / share, there have been nearly 15% decline.
21 century economic report pointed out that, compared with the Boland Department earlier bought Vanke, Hengda late entry is facing the dilemma of part of the funds quilt.
11 month 30 days, Vanke A announced a recent Hengda holdings occurred in November 18th -11 month 29 days, by the Affiliated Companies in the market and the acquisition of large transactions totaling 509 million 800 thousand shares of China Vanke A, total acquisition price is 14 billion 10 million yuan. Twenty-first Century economic report reporter rough calculation, the average price of the part of the holdings reached 27.46 yuan / share. December 8th closing price compared with the average price fell 2.72 yuan / share, down 9.9%.
that is, as of December 8th, Hengda November 18th -11 29 holdings of 509 million 800 thousand shares have been floating loss of about 1 billion 387 million yuan .
Hengda life three quarter cash outflow of 3 billion 127 million yuan
in the insurance sector, universal insurance suffered severe regulation, fighting greatly affected placards. China Insurance Regulatory Commission data show that 1-10 month Hengda life insurance premium of 41 billion 300 million yuan, 90% for universal insurance .
recently CIRC informed universal insurance reform measures in the field of insurance for the Internet universal insurance products, misleading sales problems of settlement rate of vicious competition, the CIRC has halted the Qianhai Hengda life, life and other 6 companies of the Internet insurance business channel. The industry pointed out that regulatory policy on universal insurance or will continue to upgrade, the liquidity problem of individual insurance firms will continue to be the focus of market attention .
last weekend, the Commission Chairman Liu Shiyu to harsh wording rebuked the barbarian placards, hope people don't do asset management make goblin.
Hengda life three quarter solvency report, Hengda life in the third quarter loss of 965 million yuan, the first three quarters of the cumulative loss of 1 billion 193 million yuan, the comprehensive solvency adequacy ratio of 179.73%, the core of the solvency adequacy ratio of 175.3%. As of the end of September, Hengda life's net assets reached 11 billion 62 million yuan.
it is worth noting that, Hengda life in the first three quarters of net cash flow is negative, a total net outflow of 3 billion 127 million yuan, of which business cash flow is positive and negative investment cash flow.
Hengda life announcement said the company's third quarter net cash flow is negative, mainly taking into account the overall financial market situation and asset allocation plan, at the end of the two quarter of the amount of investment is abundant, gradually carry out investment and asset allocation, the three quarter of the investment cash flow compared with the two quarter increased greatly, in the three quarter of the net cash flow is negative, the company does not mean that the liquidity gap . Constant adult life, said the company's overall liquidity is still abundant, the end of September the remaining capital of 3 billion 730 million yuan of funds, the cumulative net cash flow of 290 million yuan this year.
in order to enable the company to deal with the liquidity demand under extreme pressure, Hengda life has taken two measures: to ensure the return on total assets under the requirements of the configuration of a large number of high-quality liquid assets, including cash, money funds, short-term deposits; in order to enrich the company's financing means, reduce the cost of financing, the company plans to issue subordinated debt. As of
three quarterly data, Hengda company held a total of 10 stocks, which have been identified by auspicious Meiyan over other Hengda Group subsidiaries in the sell-off, the remaining 9 stocks have 5 of the sell buy again, Hengda life latest number of shares and the market value cannot be determined. Such as the pure three quarterly data to estimate the shares, the market value of the shares Hengda life is not more than 3 billion yuan." radical insurance firms or deposit cash flow pressure
to rely heavily on the universal insurance insurance firms, cut off the universal insurance like blood on the arteries, if not promptly adjust the premium structure, or the subsequent face is liquidity pressures, many analysts also invariably attention to liquidity pressures of individual insurance firms.
Haitong Securities in a research report that, since 2016, the CIRC has issued a series of policies to limit and regulate universal insurance, disorderly growth of effective control of universal insurance, some insurance companies placards weakened ability. However, or some small insurance companies will face pressure on cash flow and solvency adequacy ratio pressure or placards behavior will be further inhibited .
due to the main source of small and medium sized insurance companies are universal insurance, such as the short term deposit and renewal business, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission continued to strengthen universal insurance regulation, significantly reducing the cost of small and medium insurance companies with high liability costs of the new premium. And according to the provisions of the two major "notice", April 1, 2017 years ago, most of the small and medium-sized insurance companies do not meet the requirements of the products are sold. In addition, compensation under the two generation, small and medium insurance companies solvency adequacy ratio is reduced, some companies have been approaching 100% of the regulatory line .
has Guoxin Securities research reported, is different from the mature market, the domestic universal insurance is more focused on the financial nature, and rigid honor financial environment magnifies the demand for universal insurance, substitute for financial products, the current domestic universal insurance settlement rate is as high as 4%-6%, plus the management fee and channels in fact, the true cost of cost, warranty liability higher.
universal insurance regulators have repeatedly upgraded to test the liquidity of asset driven insurance firms. Asset driven insurance firms liquidity of 3 factors on the new single sales, surrender rate and cash flow have basic investment income is more sensitive to the placards listed companies income equity by the equity method in long-term equity investment, if the listed companies do not pay dividends, can only bring the carrying amount of the investment income, there is no actual cash flow support. Currently, radical type of insurance enterprises universal insurance accounted for more than 80%-100%, a comprehensive consideration of the above factors, this regulation will be more stringent to make radical type of insurance enterprises liquidity face greater pressure .
Warburg Securities Research Report believes that the short term liquidity of universal insurance products, with a strong speculative nature, if such products accounted for lead to liquidity risk insurance companies than too easy, at the same time and the insurance value is bound to violate, not for a long time, if the investment side has a greater fluctuation and surrender pressure, part of the company especially the investment behavior of the insurance company or the more radical is facing greater pressure on cash flow.
placards or further suppressed, Wang Shi will have the last laugh?
insiders pointed out that with the Commission and the China Insurance Regulatory Commission released the signal of strict supervision, to stabilize the domestic financial environment, guarantee insurance funds become stable value investors of the capital market, to prevent asset liability mismatch, liquidity risk, the risk capital placards, leveraged buyouts will continue to strengthen supervision. some small insurance company or face the pressure on cash flow and solvency adequacy ratio pressure plus, two secondary market placards behavior was inhibited by or further.
is a small insurance companies responsible person pointed out that venture capital placards should look at One divides into two. investment behavior of the insurance industry, the mainstream is not a problem, the insurance funds as institutional investors, is also an important source of long-term funding for the capital market, can make up for the short board capital market, plays an important role in the healthy development of the capital market. The current main problem is the practice of some of the insurance companies to challenge the bottom line, the investment behavior does not meet regulatory requirements. Therefore, complies with the regulatory rules, the long-term investment of insurance funds in line with the behavior should be supported, "Kuaijinkuaichu", and the investment of insurance funds has deviated from the direction of behavior should be standardized .
insiders pointed out that, from this point of view, the insurance agency placards for outstanding corporate entities, Vanke, GREE, Erie, and other large companies have been the invasion of CSG, entity enterprises. From the case of the past, the insurance institutions do not have a case of successful business entities. This may be good news for Wang Shi and Dong Mingzhu as part of a radical risk or cash flow pressure and solvency adequacy ratio.
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